Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 170530 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 130 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Surface high pressure will begin to move offshore today with southerly return flow brining warm and dry conditions to the area for the next couple of days.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 940 PM Sunday... Surface high pressure centered over NC will continue to weaken as it shifts eastward off the Carolina coast on Monday. In the wake of the mid/upper level wave moving off the Southeast Coast, heights aloft will begin to increase tonight as the upper ridge centered over the Southern Plains begins to expand eastward into the area. With dewpoint depressions already running 3 degrees or less pretty much area-wide, mostly clear skies overnight and generally light winds will support patchy and possibly areas of of ground fog overnight. Lows tonight in the mid to upper 50s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 225 PM Sunday... The potent ~150 knot jet emerging over the Upper Midwest late tonight will extend eastward through the Great Lakes during the day Monday, progressing to the New England seaboard by 12Z Tue. Meanwhile, the upper level low centered near the GA/SC border this afternoon is expected to drift slowly E/SE offshore the GA/FL coast tonight. The upper low is expected to continue a slow E/SE drift toward the Bahamas late Monday/Monday night as an upper level ridge strengthens along the TX/LA Gulf Coast and extends northeast through the Deep South toward the Carolinas Monday night. The net result will be little change in the surface pattern over the region, i.e. offshore high pressure extending westward into the Carolinas, with dry conditions reinforced by subsidence attendant the upper level ridge building over the region. The only real change in sensible weather will be a several degree increase in temperatures, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s and lows Mon night in the mid/upper 50s. -Vincent && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 240 PM Sunday... A southwest to northeast oriented ridge will result in thicknesses over 1400m and temps a good 8-12 degrees above normal, as well as dry conditions Tuesday through Thursday. The ridge will eventually be squeezed and weaken between a trough crossing the central US and the remnants of the upper low currently over the Southeast US, which is forecast to settle over the Bahamas tomorrow and interact with an area of disturbed weather being monitored by the NHC. The forecast for the end of the week may still be a little tricky, as models show the disturbance over the Bahamas drifting east but then turning back west - presumably as an extra-tropical low - and eventually getting absorbed by the mid-latitude trough that crosses NC on Friday. The current forecast keeps this low offshore and essentially keeps the pre- frontal flow northeasterly and limits moisture return/precip with the front. If this low is not present, then a greater threat of convection and severe weather could unfold given the amplitude of the trough. Since the West Coast shortwave is still over the Pacific and the disturbance over the Bahamas may or may not evolve into anything, confidence in the Thursday-Saturday forecast is low and won`t be changed much at this time. In any case, temps should drop back to around normal by next weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 130 AM Monday... 24 Hour TAF period: Fog will most likely be the forecast problem of the day with the latest run of the HRRR model favoring fog at eastern terminals and possibly at KRDU as well. For now have included TEMPO fog in the TAFs until we see how this develops over the next couple of hours. Otherwise VFR conditions should prevail once fog burns off later this morning. Long term: VFR conditions are largely expected through Friday or so when the next frontal system will approach from the west and bring a chance for sub-VFR aviation conditions.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... As of 240 PM Sunday... Major river flooding continues on the lower reaches of the Neuse and Tar rivers, although levels are expected to fall to moderate flooding today. Minor flooding is expected for several days on the Roanoke River at Roanoke Rapids and Scotland Neck, due to upstream lake releases. For details, see && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Ellis NEAR TERM...cbl SHORT TERM...VINCENT LONG TERM...BS AVIATION...Ellis HYDROLOGY...RAH is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.