Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 141922 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 320 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weak cold front will cross the region Friday night and then stall out along the coastline during the weekend. A stronger cold front moving through the area Sunday will bring noticeably cooler air for the beginning of next week, bringing frost and freeze potential Monday night.
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&& .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
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As of 320 PM Thursday... Low pressure is currently near Chicago with a stationary front extending to the east and a cold front extending to the southwest. The low will shift east into western New England, with the front extending along the Appalachian Mountains overnight. While there will be a slight increase in high clouds overnight, there is no chance of rain. A light southwesterly wind will allow for much warmer temperatures overnight than last night - lows will only fall into the 50s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 320 PM Thursday... As the New England low pressure system moves over the Atlantic Ocean, the cold front will shift to the east. While the synoptic models show precipitation continuing along the front as it crosses the Appalachians, CAMs show a substantial decrease in shower coverage as the front moves east. Did not change the forecast too much from what was inherited, generally keeping chance pops west of I-95 during the day and slight chance pops by late afternoon east of I-95. Highs will likely be slightly cooler Friday than today due to the additional cloud cover, and will range from the mid 70s in the Triad to the lower 80s in the east. The cold front will likely be bisecting the forecast area from northeast to southwest at sunset. The trend of the synoptic models showing much more precipitation than the high resolution models continues into the overnight hours, and have gone with chance pops decreasing from west to east overnight instead of bumping up pops to likely. Despite the front moving through Friday night, it will take some time for colder air to move into the region, and after another warm day on Friday, Friday night`s lows should be similar to tonight`s values or even a touch warmer, ranging from the mid 50s to the lower 60s.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 415 AM Thursday... Rain chances are overall rather low through this period, with just small pops and light amounts this weekend. Above normal temps this weekend will yield to below normal readings Mon and Tue before rebounding back closer to normal Wed. Sat/Sun: Our region will be within very broad troughing, with a flattening trend, on the far southern fringe of the polar low centered over Ontario into W Quebec. The upper level jet streak will hold to our N and NW, near the Ohio Valley, keeping us separated from the notably cooler air. The incoming weak cold front will stall out across SC and S NC early Sat before undergoing gradual frontolysis through the weekend, resulting in a modest cooling from Friday`s very warm highs, but still well above seasonal normals. We`ll be lacking a good low level moisture tap, as a surface col area is expected to sit over the NE Gulf, with 925-850 mb flow largely from the W or WNW. The PWs should be elevated enough (aoa 1") for small shower chances along and ahead of the front, across our far southern and SE sections, on Sat, but the lack of low level moisture flux and just a weak shearing vorticity max passing by to our N will keep this from being a significant rainmaker. By Sun/Sun night, as a stronger shortwave trough digs down into the central Miss Valley and Ohio Valley with small perturbations ejecting from the closed low over the Desert Southwest and tracking across the Southeast states, a brief northward resurgence of 1+" PWs buckling back northward into SE NC ahead of the incoming polar cold front that will push SE through the area Sun night. This will bring renewed (yet still small) rain chances across our far SE, mainly late Sun into Sun night, although confidence in timing begins to drop by this time, not unexpected given the speed of the steering flow and resulting model timing differences. Again, though, pops and amounts should be fairly small and confined to our SE. Highs both days will be mostly in the 70s. Mon-Wed: Dry weather likely. Low level thicknesses plunge with clearing skies early Mon as the cold front settles to our S and SE and Canadian high pressure builds in from the N Plains. Expect mostly fair skies and some gusty winds given the tight MSLP gradient as the denser air pours in, esp after Mon evening when a secondary cold front shifts through the area. We`ll stay in a dry trajectory at all levels through mid week, and while the surface high will settle across the Deep South as another weak cold front approaches from the N Wed, overall the resident air mass will slowly moderate amidst the abundant sunshine. Below normal temps Mon will bottom out Tue, when highs will only be in the 50s, followed by a rebound to highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s Wed. -GIH && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 125 PM Thursday... TAF period: High confidence in VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. There are currently some passing high clouds across the forecast area, and skies should stay mostly clear through late tonight, with high ceilings eventually moving in from the west. Wind should be light out of the southwest (or variable) this afternoon and tonight, with gusts up to 20 kt Friday morning. Some marginal LLWS (~35 kt) cannot be ruled out between 06-12Z Friday at INT/GSO/RDU, but confidence was not high enough to include in the TAFs at this time. Outlook: Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible Friday afternoon and night at all sites with some sub-VFR restrictions possible, restrictions most likely at RDU/RWI Friday night. A slight chance of showers will continue at FAY Saturday, and again at RDU/FAY/RWI Sunday afternoon/evening. The rest of the outlook period should be dry. Winds could gust to 30 mph Monday. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Green NEAR TERM...Green SHORT TERM...Green LONG TERM...Hartfield AVIATION...Green

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