Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
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000
FXUS62 KRAH 141922
AFDRAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
320 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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A weak cold front will cross the region Friday night and then stall
out along the coastline during the weekend. A stronger cold front
moving through the area Sunday will bring noticeably cooler air for
the beginning of next week, bringing frost and freeze potential
Monday night.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
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As of 320 PM Thursday...
Low pressure is currently near Chicago with a stationary front
extending to the east and a cold front extending to the southwest.
The low will shift east into western New England, with the front
extending along the Appalachian Mountains overnight. While there
will be a slight increase in high clouds overnight, there is no
chance of rain. A light southwesterly wind will allow for much
warmer temperatures overnight than last night - lows will only fall
into the 50s.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 320 PM Thursday...
As the New England low pressure system moves over the Atlantic
Ocean, the cold front will shift to the east. While the synoptic
models show precipitation continuing along the front as it crosses
the Appalachians, CAMs show a substantial decrease in shower
coverage as the front moves east. Did not change the forecast too
much from what was inherited, generally keeping chance pops west of
I-95 during the day and slight chance pops by late afternoon east of
I-95. Highs will likely be slightly cooler Friday than today due to
the additional cloud cover, and will range from the mid 70s in the
Triad to the lower 80s in the east.
The cold front will likely be bisecting the forecast area from
northeast to southwest at sunset. The trend of the synoptic models
showing much more precipitation than the high resolution models
continues into the overnight hours, and have gone with chance pops
decreasing from west to east overnight instead of bumping up pops to
likely. Despite the front moving through Friday night, it will take
some time for colder air to move into the region, and after another
warm day on Friday, Friday night`s lows should be similar to
tonight`s values or even a touch warmer, ranging from the mid 50s to
the lower 60s.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 415 AM Thursday...
Rain chances are overall rather low through this period, with just
small pops and light amounts this weekend. Above normal temps this
weekend will yield to below normal readings Mon and Tue before
rebounding back closer to normal Wed.
Sat/Sun: Our region will be within very broad troughing, with a
flattening trend, on the far southern fringe of the polar low
centered over Ontario into W Quebec. The upper level jet streak will
hold to our N and NW, near the Ohio Valley, keeping us separated
from the notably cooler air. The incoming weak cold front will stall
out across SC and S NC early Sat before undergoing gradual
frontolysis through the weekend, resulting in a modest cooling from
Friday`s very warm highs, but still well above seasonal normals.
We`ll be lacking a good low level moisture tap, as a surface col
area is expected to sit over the NE Gulf, with 925-850 mb flow
largely from the W or WNW. The PWs should be elevated enough (aoa
1") for small shower chances along and ahead of the front, across
our far southern and SE sections, on Sat, but the lack of low level
moisture flux and just a weak shearing vorticity max passing by to
our N will keep this from being a significant rainmaker. By Sun/Sun
night, as a stronger shortwave trough digs down into the central
Miss Valley and Ohio Valley with small perturbations ejecting from
the closed low over the Desert Southwest and tracking across the
Southeast states, a brief northward resurgence of 1+" PWs buckling
back northward into SE NC ahead of the incoming polar cold front
that will push SE through the area Sun night. This will bring
renewed (yet still small) rain chances across our far SE, mainly
late Sun into Sun night, although confidence in timing begins to
drop by this time, not unexpected given the speed of the steering
flow and resulting model timing differences. Again, though, pops and
amounts should be fairly small and confined to our SE. Highs both
days will be mostly in the 70s.
Mon-Wed: Dry weather likely. Low level thicknesses plunge with
clearing skies early Mon as the cold front settles to our S and SE
and Canadian high pressure builds in from the N Plains. Expect
mostly fair skies and some gusty winds given the tight MSLP gradient
as the denser air pours in, esp after Mon evening when a secondary
cold front shifts through the area. We`ll stay in a dry trajectory
at all levels through mid week, and while the surface high will
settle across the Deep South as another weak cold front approaches
from the N Wed, overall the resident air mass will slowly moderate
amidst the abundant sunshine. Below normal temps Mon will bottom out
Tue, when highs will only be in the 50s, followed by a rebound to
highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s Wed. -GIH
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 125 PM Thursday...
TAF period: High confidence in VFR conditions through the next 24
hours. There are currently some passing high clouds across the
forecast area, and skies should stay mostly clear through late
tonight, with high ceilings eventually moving in from the west. Wind
should be light out of the southwest (or variable) this afternoon
and tonight, with gusts up to 20 kt Friday morning. Some marginal
LLWS (~35 kt) cannot be ruled out between 06-12Z Friday at
INT/GSO/RDU, but confidence was not high enough to include in the
TAFs at this time.
Outlook: Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be
possible Friday afternoon and night at all sites with some sub-VFR
restrictions possible, restrictions most likely at RDU/RWI Friday
night. A slight chance of showers will continue at FAY Saturday, and
again at RDU/FAY/RWI Sunday afternoon/evening. The rest of the
outlook period should be dry. Winds could gust to 30 mph Monday.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Green
NEAR TERM...Green
SHORT TERM...Green
LONG TERM...Hartfield
AVIATION...Green