Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 180727 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 327 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS....A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS AND VA THIS MORNING. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO A POTENT BUT MOISTURE- STARVED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW AND BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY... TODAY: A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL PIVOT ENE AND PROPEL A SURFACE COLD...WHICH AT 07Z WAS NEAR THE WEST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS...SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH DURING THE LATE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS. A LACK OF BOTH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL YIELD DRY CONDITIONS FOR CENTRAL NC. DESPITE CAA BEHIND THE FRONT...NW FLOW AT H85 (PER REGIONAL VWP DATA) THAT HAS ALREADY VEERED FROM WESTERLY AT THE TIME OF THE 00Z RAOBS...WILL PROMOTE DOWNSLOPE WARMING THAT SHOULD OFFSET THE CAA...AND ALSO PRODUCE A 10-15 MPH NW SURFACE WIND THAT WILL GUST INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S MPH. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE TYPICALLY VERIFIES WITH LESS ERROR THAN OTHER MAX TEMPERATURE FORECASTING TECHNIQUES IN SUCH A PATTERN...SO THE VERY SIMILAR MET/MAV MOS WILL BE FOLLOWED - AROUND 70 NW PIEDMONT TO UPPER 70S SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. TONIGHT: A SECONDARY COLD FRONT...ONE ACCOMPANYING A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO AMPLIFY FROM NW WISCONSIN THIS MORNING TO NC/VA BY 06Z...WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BE A MOISTURE-STARVED ONE...WITH SIMPLY A PERIOD PARTLY TO PERHAPS BRIEFLY MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAINLY NEAR THE VA BORDER...AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED (RELATIVE) MOIST AXIS PIVOTS EAST. CAA-DRIVEN LOWS IN THE 40S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY... A RATHER CHILLY AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON SUNDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN NO CHANCE OF PRECIP AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY WILL MEAN HIGHS WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 60S AREAWIDE AND LOW TO MID 60S AT THAT. THE SURFACE HIGH IS PROGGED TO SHIFT NEARLY OVERHEAD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THUS MAINTAINING THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME NEARLY CALM. THESE GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S (WITH EVEN SOME MID 30S POSSIBLE IS THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCALES). -KRD
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY... ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY...WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW THIS SYSTEM TRANSITIONING INTO A CLOSED LOW BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...THE AIR MASS WILL MODERATE SOME... BUT WITH INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS...HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE RETURN REMAINS LIMITED AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...MODELS HAVE TRENDED WETTER AS THE UPPER TROUGH/CUT OFF LOW DIGS FURTHER SOUTH INTO VA OR NORTHERN NC. HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA (ALTHOUGH THERE IS A STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY). MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS THE LOW CUTTING OFF AND STAYING OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THURSDAY WHEN IT SLOWLY STARTS TO OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WILL KEEP SOME LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN DURING THIS TIME FRAME GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT. THEN FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH PULLS FURTHER AWAY AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY (AHEAD OF THE FRONT)...WITH MID/UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES EXPECTED. THEN EXPECTING A COUPLE DAYS OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS (HIGHS MOSTLY LOW/MID 60S BUT MAYBE A FEW UPPER 50S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOW/MID 40S...MAYBE SOME UPPER 30S)...WITH SOME MODERATION BY FRIDAY LIKELY. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 215 AM SATURDAY... A PAIR OF DRY COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC...ONE THIS MORNING AND ANOTHER THIS EVENING. INITIALLY LIGHT SW SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER TO WNW AND INCREASE INTO THE 8-14 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS...AS THE LEAD COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA BETWEEN 14-17Z. A PERIOD OF BROKEN 3000-3500 FT CLOUDINESS MAY SPILL EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS/INTO THE NW NC PIEDMONT (KINT/KGSO) THIS EVENING...WITH FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUD BASES BETWEEN 3500-5000 FT ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE. WHILE SURFACE WINDS WILL LESSEN AROUND SUNSET...THE PASSAGE OF THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY CAUSE THEM TO PICK UP ONCE AGAIN...INTO THE 7-12 KT RANGE WITH A FEW GUSTS MAINLY AT TRIAD TERMINALS...BETWEEN 00-06Z. OUTLOOK: THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUE-WED. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...MWS SHORT TERM...WSS/KRD LONG TERM...KRD AVIATION...MWS

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