Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 010220 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1020 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. OTHERWISE... A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL HOLD OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY EXTENDS OVER WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY... THE SHIELD OF TROPICAL RAIN HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA... WHILE THE MID LEVEL LOW HAS MOVED WELL TO OUR NE. WHILE A FEW SHALLOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE... THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL HOLD JUST TO OUR EAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE CHS COAST... AND THIS WILL TRACK TO THE NNE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER ERN NC... ACCOMPANIED BY A MID LEVEL WAVE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY JUST UPSHEAR. EXTRAPOLATION SUGGESTS THAT THE RAIN SHIELD IS LIKELY TO HOLD JUST TO OUR EAST OR PERHAPS BRUSH ALONG THE FAR ERN COASTAL PLAIN AS THE LOW TRACKS OVER ERN NC... A SCENARIO NEARLY IN LINE WITH THE LATEST HRRR RUNS. WILL RETAIN A LOW CHANCE POP OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN FORECAST AREA INTO EARLY EVENING... THEN EXPECT DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT AS THE DRIER AIR NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO OUR SW CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD ALL OF CENTRAL NC. IT`S A DIFFERENT STORY NEAR THE GROUND HOWEVER... AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HOLDING OVER THE ERN HALF OF NC ALONG WITH A WET GROUND AND LIGHT OR CALM SURFACE WINDS LEAD TO FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT... PARTICULARLY FROM THE TRIANGLE AND FAY TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST. EXPECT ABOVE-NORMAL LOWS FROM 67-72. -GIH && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY... A WEAK SURFACE PATTERN FEATURING A BROAD TROUGH OVER ERN NC AND KY- CENTERED RIDGE EXTENDING INTO WRN NC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE... WHILE ALOFT... HEIGHTS RISE OVER NC IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING WAVE... AND AHEAD OF THE LOW NOW OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE AIR THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS... ALTHOUGH A MODERATE AMOUNT OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCU PARTICULARLY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ONCE THE MORNING FOG LIFTS AND MIXES OVER THE NRN AND ERN CWA... EXPECT GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR STORM IN THE FAR ERN CWA... WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE BETTER AND WHERE MUCAPE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH OR EXCEED 1000 J/KG... BUT THE LACK OF A FOCUS FOR ASCENT AND LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE LOW. HIGHS 88-92 WITH THICKNESSES A BIT ABOVE NORMAL. FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS 69-72. -GIH && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY... A FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE EXTENT OF THE LONG TERM AS THERE IS VERY LITTLE FORCING IN THE UPPER LEVELS WITH NO REAL DISCERNIBLE JETS OR STRONG SHORTWAVES IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL NC. THEREFORE MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE BUILT AROUND LOWER LEVEL FEATURES. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL WITH VERY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA. THE SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE VERY WEAK WITH NOT MUCH OF AN AIRMASS CHANCE BUT MAYBE JUST ENOUGH FORCING FOR A SLIGHT UPTICK IN CONVECTION ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN OVER NEW ENGLAND AND RETROGRADE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATER ON FRIDAY AND GIVING US A COOLER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY RUN IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND THEN DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. PRECIP CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND. -RE && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 900 PM MONDAY... 24-HR TAF PERIOD: INT/GSO: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS...ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS (09-13Z). OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL. RDU/FAY/RWI: DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT EASTERN TERMINALS WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED IN THE PRESENCE OF CALM WINDS...MOIST AIRMASS...AND MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS FROM RECENT RAINFALL. EXPECT LIFR CONDITIONS ATTENDANT EITHER LOW CEILINGS OR LOW VISBYS IN DENSE DOG...PARTICULARLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS IN THE 08-13Z TIME FRAME. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BETWEEN 12-15Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD ASIDE FROM A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLD SHOWER AT THE FAY/RWI TERMINALS DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON. NOTE: THE RDU TERMINAL APPEARS TO BE IN THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE MORNING. -VINCENT LOOKING BEYOND 00Z WED: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUE AFTERNOON INTO TUE NIGHT...BUT MVFR TO IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL THROUGH SAT. SCATTERED SUB-VFR SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING WED THROUGH SAT...ALTHOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW WITH DETAILS OF POSSIBLE TIMING OR COVERAGE. -GIH
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KS NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD LONG TERM...ELLIS AVIATION...VINCENT

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