Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 190655 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 255 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure centered over southern Quebec will extend south into the southern Appalachians through Wednesday. Tropical Cyclone Jose will continue to move northward well offshore of the DELMARVA peninsula today, and off the southern New England coast on Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 900 PM Monday... A few very light showers moving just east of the forecast area this evening as Hurricane Jose moves northward offshore of the Outer Banks. Aside from a few sprinkles moving through eastern counties such as Halifax and Edgecombe, the area should remain dry overnight. Similar situation to the last couple of nights in regards to the areas that will experience the most fog/low stratus with highest concentrations in the northeastern part of the area. Tonight`s assortment will feature MVFR visibilities and IFR ceilings showing up in the usually times after 8z or so and running through and a little beyond sunrise. Lows tonight will drop into the low to middle 60s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 215 PM Monday... Only diurnal cumulus is expected Tuesday with highs only slightly hampered by northwest flow, reaching the mid 80s over most of the area. Mins Tuesday night will be perhaps a touch warmer, but still mainly in the mid 60s as an upper short wave moves across the area accompanied by some mid to high level cloudiness. Forcing that might enhance convection is not readily apparent Wednesday in a lingering weak trof regime in the wake of Jose. Plenty of sun is in the offing, which will allow modification of the airmass to reach the mid and upper 80s, and very low 90s are possible along the far southern counties. Mins on Wednesday night will be persistence...mostly mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 255 AM Tuesday... Central NC will be under the influence of high pressure through much of the extended forecast period, resulting in a predominantly dry forecast. A weak trough over the region could result in some showers on Thursday and Friday, primarily in the southwest, but chances are no more than slight. Also, expect skies to be mostly sunny/partly cloudy through the period. Temperatures will be highest on Thursday/Thursday night with highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the mid to upper 60s. Expect gradually decreasing temperatures thereafter as a result of increasing northerly flow and possible advection of some cooler air. The forecast for Sunday onward remains highly uncertain as it will depend on the track of Maria, which will depend on what happens with Jose. As a result, very low confidence in the forecast for Monday and Tuesday. The more interesting features of the extended period will be the tropics and what happens with Jose and Maria. Jose is progged to meander off the NE U.S. coast through the week, with increasing uncertainty through the weekend. Meanwhile, Maria will be moving through the Caribbean, northwestward toward the CONUS. As mentioned above, Maria`s impacts from Sunday onward are still highly uncertain as they will depend heavily on Jose and if/how the two systems interact with one another. The medium range models continue to have significantly different solutions in that regard, making forecast confidence very low. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 145 AM Tuesday... A deck of low stratus is expected to materialize and drift southward across most of the Piedmont and the northern coastal plain early this morning with widespread IFR/LIFR ceilings expected and MVFR visibilities due to fog. Some uncertainty whether the adverse aviation parameters will make it as far south as KFAY. Conditions are expected to improve after 13Z, with VFR parameters expected areawide by 15Z. Sfc winds, at less than 10 kts, will gradually back to a nwly direction this morning as Jose` moves northward well offshore of the Outer Banks and the DELMARVA peninsula. VFR parameters generally expected across central NC Wednesday through Saturday, though a few showers may occur Thursday into Friday as a weak upper disturbance and associated sfc front crosses the region. A brief instance of MVFR ceilings/visibility will occur in vicinity of the isolated showers. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WSS NEAR TERM...Ellis SHORT TERM...mlm LONG TERM...KC AVIATION...WSS

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