-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
091
FXUS62 KRAH 280556
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
156 AM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A backdoor front will become quasi-stationary over southern VA and
far northern NC through tonight, then return north as a warm front
across the Middle Atlantic coast on Saturday. A mid and upper-level
ridge will otherwise weaken while drifting from the southern Middle
Atlantic to near and east of Bermuda this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 900 PM Friday...

Afternoon and early evening storms have diminished quite rapidly in
the past hour, owing to less heating and the influence of numerous
outflows.  Most of the southern Piedmont, Sandhills and coastal
plain have been worked over, but there are still some areas,
especially in the north-central Piedmont where MRMS WPE is void of
any rainfall today.  00Z surface analysis suggest the frontal zone
previously over south-central VA has slipped into the northern
Piedmont with the help of convection outflow, and there is a general
region of convergence  from west to east north of I-40.  The KGSO
raob and forecast soundings also indicate moderate MUCAPE still
present, and as noted in the previous discussion, a weak but non-
negligible LLJ at 925mb into the boundary area should continue to
support some convection initiation overnight.  This is supported by
at least some HRRR reflectivity (through multiple model runs) across
the north as late as 09Z. This would be very isolated, but it seems
worth keeping a slight chance POP for a few more hours.

Otherwise, SREF probabilities suggest better stratus coverage will
remain well north of the boundary, but we could see some patchy
stratus and fog in the relatively rain-cooled areas, again mostly
focused closer to the NC/VA border.  Lows 70-74.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY...
As of 355 PM Friday...

The mid/upr-level pattern over the Southeast will weaken/flatten, as
the long-standing heat-producing ridge from recent days drifts
toward Bermuda and weakens, and a mid/upr-level low weakens over the
srn Appalachians. Sly flow between the two will direct a plume of
high PWs (ie. 1.8 to 2") across cntl NC.

At the surface, a backdoor front, and probable early morning
overcast over far nrn NC and especially VA in the morning, will
retreat nwd across the Middle Atlantic coast through the day, while
a persistent Piedmont/Sandhills trough will otherwise continue to
extend swwd across cntl NC.

With little to no change in airmass over cntl NC, temperatures
should be generally persistent, unseasonably hot ones mostly in the
lwr-mid 90s that will contribute to a moderately unstable and weakly
inhibited airmass once again by early afternoon. Pulse cells should
tend to focus along the surface trough and subsequent outflow over
the Piedmont/Sandhills, with lesser chances/coverage in the Coastal
Plain. A combination of continued weak deep layer flow and high PWs
will favor brief downpours and a mainly urban flood risk, and strong
to tree-damaging downburst winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 PM Friday...

* Typical summer pattern across NC much of this week with above
  normal temperatures and daily shower/thunderstorm chances

* Increased shower/storm chances Tuesday/Wednesday, turning drier
  Thursday/Friday

The forecast will feature a fairly typical summertime pattern
through early next week with Bermuda high pressure in place at the
surface and aloft. Daily shower and thunderstorm chances are
expected through Monday, with the highest chances generally favored
in the western Piedmont. Afternoon highs will top out in the low to
mid 90s with lows generally in the lows 70s (west) to the mid/upper
70s (southern Coastal Plain). Heat indices will once again range
from the upper 90s to lower 100s. Certainly not cool, but not as
high as what was seen earlier this week.

Looking ahead to Tuesday, a longwave trough will migrate out of the
northern Plains, sharpening as it approaches the western slopes of
the Appalachians. Modest moisture advection ahead of the trough and
the attendant surface front should promote the development of more
widespread shower and thunderstorm activity across the area Tuesday
afternoon and evening. PW`s will top out around 2" ahead of the
front and with MLCAPEs running anywhere from 1000-1500 J/KG, areal
coverage of storms should be noticeably higher than previous days.
With synoptically driven support in the form of the trough, some
some storms could be strong to severe. There is still some inherent
uncertainty at this lead time with respect to how far south this
front will make it before washing out/dissipating but the threat for
more widespread precip chances is certainly agreed upon by the
models. PoPs will range anywhere from 60-80 percent Tuesday
afternoon/evening, with the highest values in the west. The front
should slowly sag through the area Wednesday, eventually
stalling/washing out across the Sandhills/southern Coastal Plain on
Thursday. In the wake of the trough, mid level subsidence and drying
should yield lesser precip chances Thursday and Friday.

Temps Tuesday through Thursday will once again range from the low to
mid 90s, with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. The exception
will be Wednesday when highs may only reach the upper 80s with the
front overhead and associated increased cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 155 AM Saturday...

24 hour TAF period: Lingering storms near KINT/KGSO will continue
for the first couple/few hours of the period, with the potential for
some increased winds and reduced cigs/vsbys where they occur.
Otherwise and elsewhere, winds should be generally calm to light
through daybreak, increasing a couple/few kts during the day and
becoming mainly sly-swly during the aft. While most of the period
should be VFR, MVFR/IFR vsbys may again develop at KRWI in the pre-
dawn hours, and given the convection today, IFR/LIFR cigs will be
possible at KINT/KGSO. Any restrictions that materialize should
begin clearing up after daybreak. Expect scattered showers/storms
again this aft/eve, accompanied by the usual restrictions.

Outlook: There will be the chance for diurnally driven convection
through the weekend, increasing in chances and coverage mid-week.
Otherwise, VFR conditions should generally prevail.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...Leins
AVIATION...KC