-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KRAH 231959
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
359 PM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A Piedmont trough will extend from Virginia into South Carolina
through Tuesday. A cold front will drop south into North Carolina on
Tuesday and then stall across the region on Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...

Dangerously hot conditions will continue across central NC
through this evening.

The latest surface analysis shows a Piedmont trough extending
southwest across the Carolinas. A southwesterly flow at the surface
is present across much of central NC with surface dewpoints in the
mid 70s. Further aloft, the subtropical ridge is well established
across the subtropical Atlantic with other ridging across the
western US with troughiness in place across Great Lakes and Mid
Atlantic.  A notable short wave trough will drop into the western OH
Valley this evening.

The air mass across central NC is generally moderately to strongly
unstable with current MLCAPE values ranging from 1500-3000 J/Kg.
Scattered convection has developed in proximity to the Piedmont
trough and across the southern Piedmont/Yadkin Valley area in a
region of 925 hPa convergence. In general, this convection will move
and transition slowly southeast with the greatest coverage across
our southwest. Another band of convection/MCS may develop ahead of
the OH Valley shortwave which could move into the area from the
northwest around and after midnight. Much lower confidence on how
that will play out given all of the features that will evolve ahead
of it but it`s one to watch. The main risk today will be damaging
downburst winds given the profile and DCAPE values of 1200 J/kg and
dangerous lightning given the abundant CAPE and higher values of
NCAPE and CAPE in the -10 to -30C layer. The slow moving and back
building nature of the storms will lead to some locally very heavy
rain.

After highs reach the 94 to 101 range today, lows tonight will range
from 73 in the Triad to 80 near Fayetteville. -Blaes

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 145 PM Sunday...

Broad cyclonic flow will persist across the Mid Atlantic and
Northeast on Monday and Monday night. The upper-level trough axis
will shift east during the period, allowing a weak surface cold
front to move into central NC Monday night and then stall. Heights
at 500 hPa actually increase a bit but widespread moisture should
result in a fair amount of cloudiness, especially in the mid and
high levels. Depending on how convection evolves late tonight, some
widely scattered showers and storms may be ongoing on Monday
morning, especially across the south and east. Additional, mainly
scattered storms are apt to redevelop during the midday and
especially afternoon hours with the greatest coverage across the
southern and eastern Piedmont and in the Coastal Plain. More limited
coverage is expected across the western Piedmont and Triad. Central
NC is outlooked in the general thunder category by SPC. While no
organized convection is expected, can`t rule out a stronger storm
given the higher CAPE and slightly stronger flow.

Low-level thickness values drop about 7 to 10m across the area
compared to today which combined with the cloud cover should result
in highs about 2 to 4 degrees cooler than today but a few degrees
warmer than previously forecast for Monday. This should result in
highs in the 93 to 98 range, providing heat index values of 97-104,
close but not reaching criteria, except in an isolated spot of two.
For now, plan to hold off on any heat advisories and have
coordinated with most of our neighboring WFOs, but we will be
close to the threshold and given the multiple days of of heat
issues already experienced, the mid shift will need to consider
issuing an advisory. It will remain muggy on Monday night with
lows in the 73 to 78 range. -Blaes

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 355 PM Sunday...

Long range guidance continues to indicate that shortwave energy will
stall over the Southeast mid-week as an upper level ridge extends
eastward from the Central Plains to the Carolinas. NW flow aloft is
expected to strengthen over the region late this week through this
weekend as an upper level ridge amplifies over the Rockies and
shortwave energy digs SE across the Great Lakes. At this time,
expect at or slightly below normal temperatures in association with
increased cloud cover and an increased potential for convection,
though uncertainty is greater than average in such a synoptic
pattern. -Vincent

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM Sunday...

24-Hour TAF period...Outside of scattered convection across the
area, expect mainly VFR conditions through the TAF period across
central NC. Scattered thunderstorms are apt to initially develop
in an arc from near Roanoke Rapid southwest to just south of
Raleigh to near Lexington and then shift south and east during
the mid and late afternoon hours. Additional convection may move
southeast across central NC later this evening or overnight
resulting from storms that may develop across the higher
elevations or possibly triggered by a short wave moving into
the OH Valley. Given limited thunderstorm coverage now and
uncertainty about storms later this evening, we`ve omitted the
inclusion of TSRA from the TAFs and just used higher end SHRA.
A southwesterly flow generally around 5 to 10 kts with
occasional gusts to 14 to 18kts this afternoon will relax this
evening.

Looking ahead... Mainly VFR conditions expected through
the work week with scattered mainly afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms. This could result in some
restrictions in morning fog/stratus or storms with the greatest
risk late in the work week. -Blaes

&&

.CLIMATE...
RDU Records:
Date     | High   Year  |  High Min  Year
------------------------------------------
23 July  |  105   1952  |     78     2011
24 July  |  101   2011  |     79     2011

GSO Records:
Date     | High   Year  |  High Min  Year
------------------------------------------
23 July  |   99   1952  |     78     2010
24 July  |   99   1914  |     78     2010

FAY Records:
Date     |  High  Year  |  High Min  Year
-------------------------------------------
23 July  |  103   2011  |     79     1998
24 July  |  105   1952  |     79     1945

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for NCZ010-
011-026>028-041>043-077-078-085-086-088-089.
Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NCZ007>009-
021>025-038>040-073>076-083-084.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...BLAES
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...BLAES
CLIMATE...RAH