Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 160725 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 225 AM EST Thu Nov 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A fast-moving upper level trough will cross North Carolina early this morning. High pressure will move in from the northwest today through Friday, before moving offshore Friday night. A warm southwest flow will overspread the area Saturday, ahead of a cold front that will cross the region Saturday night. Cool high pressure will return for Sunday through Monday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /today through tonight/...
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As of 215 AM Thursday... The mid level shortwave trough responsible for the light showers now moving through the NE portion of the forecast area will be moving to our east by daybreak, resulting in a west-to-east clearing trend early this morning. One minor perturbation will cross VA and northern NC early this afternoon, but the lack of any moisture will render this wave benign. Plenty of sunshine is expected today, with neutral vertical motion trending toward subsidence, and high pressure building in at the surface. The arrival of an area of 20-25 kt northwesterly winds at 850 mb will culminate in some gustiness to 15-20 kts, especially late morning into this afternoon. Very little cooling will take place through much of the day, with thicknesses starting out close to normal and rising at a near-climo pace today, so expect highs in the low-mid 60s. Cooler air builds in in earnest tonight, with thicknesses falling to 10-15 m below normal under clear skies and with diminishing winds, prompting good radiational cooling. Lows 30-35. -GIH
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&& .SHORT TERM /Friday through Friday night/...
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As of 225 AM Thursday... Surface high pressure will build quickly overhead Fri and off the coast Fri night. Heights will continue to rise modestly Fri with a flat to gently anticyclonic mid level flow, and a dry column in place. Increasing high thin clouds are expected Fri evening/night as subtle mid level waves pass overhead (hopefully these will be thin enough so as to not impede viewing of the Leonid meteor shower). With lots of sunshine Fri but a cool start, expect highs of 55-61. Milder lows Fri night of 34-38 under fair skies with the onset of return flow on the back side of the exiting high. -GIH
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 340 PM Wednesday... Shortwave ridging aloft across the mid-Atlantic early on Saturday pushes offshore as a progressive upper-level trough moves across the OH and TN Valleys Saturday afternoon an then pushes off the east coast Sunday night. The associated cold front will reach the southern Appalachians Saturday evening and then reach the coast around Sunday morning. Vigorous low-level flow with southwesterly 850 hPa winds of 40-50 kts are expected ahead of the front while stout southwesterly winds of 130+ kts are expected at jet level. Even with these dynamics, the best forcing for ascent lifts northeast away from the Carolinas which combined with limited moisture return and a progressive pattern will result in a brief and generally light precipitation event with precipitation amounts of a tenth or two. The weather pattern quiets and chills with generally fair weather expected for Sunday into early next week as deep troughing across develops across the eastern CONUS on Sunday and Monday. The is followed by a period of short-wave ridging late Monday into early Tuesday. The southern jet stream becomes more active across the Deep South and Gulf Coast into Wednesday as troughing develops in the vicinity of the lower Mississippi Valley. Not much confidence in forecast details late Tuesday into Wednesday as this pattern can be difficult to forecast, especially at day 7 but fair and dry weather still expected. With a strong southerly flow and a delayed arrival of clouds and precipitation, raised max temperatures on Saturday to the mid 60s to lower 70s. Temperatures cool on Sunday with highs in the lower to mid 50s and cool even further on Monday with highs only in the upper 40s to lower 50s despite lots of sunshine. A moderation to just below normal temperatures are expected on Tuesday and wednesday with highs in the mid 50s to around 60. -Blaes && .AVIATION /06Z Thursday through Monday/... As of 1230 AM Thursday... Despite the passage of an upper level trough and accompanying light showers through the area early this morning, cloud bases will be high (around 8,000-10,000 ft AGL) with VFR vsbys. Once this system passes to our east this morning, VFR conditions with mostly clear skies and unrestricted vsbys are likely today through tonight as surface high pressure builds into the area. Winds will be mainly from the NW today under 10 kts, becoming light northerly tonight. Looking beyond 06z Fri, VFR conditions are likely through Sat. MVFR conditions are expected Sat evening/Sat night as a cold front moves through with scattered showers. VFR conditions will return Sun through Mon as high pressure builds in. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...Hartfield SHORT TERM...Hartfield LONG TERM...BLAES AVIATION...Hartfield

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