Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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469 FXUS62 KRAH 222320 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 720 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A dry surface ridge will extend southwest into the region through late-week as high pressure moves offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 150 PM Monday... In the wake of the upper trough moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast this morning, quasi-zonal flow aloft will develop across the area as the flat subtropical ridging extends across the GOM and Deep South. Meanwhile, a strengthening dry air surface ridge building eastward into the Mid-Atlantic Region will deliver noticeably drier/less humid air into the Carolinas, with dewpoints falling into the 50s this afternoon and evening. With the dry air in place and clear skies and light winds overnight, strong radiational cooling will allow temperatures to fall into the mid/upper 50s north, to lower 60s elsewhere, some of the coolest readings that many places have seen for nearly 2 months. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 150 PM Monday... Subtropical ridging to our south begins to extend/amplify north the area on Tuesday. At the surface, dry air surface ridge in place across the Mid-Atlantic States will retain lower dewpoint air over the Carolinas, resulting in comfortable RH values for late August. Seasonable highs in the mid 80s north to around 90 south. Lows a few degrees warmer than tonight, generally in the lower to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 302 PM Monday... Surface high pressure off the Midatlantic Coast will extend southeastward in to the area through Thursday, as upper level ridging over the Southeast strengthens through the end of the week. A weak cold front will drop as far south as VA Thursday and Friday, but will quickly weaken as the main upper level energy is directed well north near the Canadian Maritimes by the building ridge. Forecast will remain dry in this regime, with increasing upper level heights supporting a return to temperatures in the 90s by Friday through the weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 720 PM Monday... 24 Hour TAF Period: Very high confidence of VFR conditions through the TAF period with dry airmass in place. Aside from a few stray clouds both in the mid levels and aloft, skies should be mostly clear. Light and variable winds overnight will shift to a more predominant northeasterly direction on Tuesday. Long term: Continued VFR conditions are expected through much of the work week. A cold front approaches the area on Friday into Saturday but may not make it as far as the Carolinas and would regardless be of minimal impact.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Vincent NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...Ellis

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