Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 260803 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 400 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD TONIGHT THEN DRIFT EAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 400 AM SUNDAY... A 1018 MB MODIFIED CONTINENTAL SURFACE HIGH OFF THE NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL NC TODAY. AS WAS THE CASE ON SATURDAY...SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...UNSUPPORTIVE OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. FORECAST LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1425 METERS...OR ABOUT 5 TO 10 METERS HIGHER THAN HOSE OBSERVED SATURDAY...SHOULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES 2-3 DEGREES WARMER ON AVERAGE THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS - MAINLY LOWER 90S. A VORT MAX OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...TO NEAR THE NJ COAST BY 12 MON. THE APPROACH OF THAT FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTENING MAY SUPPORT THE MAINTENANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN VA...A FEW OF WHICH MAY CLIP THE FAR NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT AND/OR NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. NOT AS (UNSEASONABLY) COOL...WITH LOWS GENERALLY AROUND 70 DEGREES. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY... A DEVELOPING NW FLOW ALOFT AIDED BY THE STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BUILDING EASTWARD WILL BRING HOTTER TEMPERATURES MONDAY. A WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH IS EXPECTED WHICH COULD HELP INITIATE A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS... HOWEVER CHANCES APPEAR LOW AT THE CURRENT TIME. HIGHS 90-95. LOWS GENERALLY 70-73 AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY... STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL GENERATE HOTTER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS INTO CENTRAL NC THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY BY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE MAIN FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST... THEN POTENTIALLY STALLS OVER THE REGION. BEFORE THEN... SLIGHT CHANCES OF DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE BUT A MAIN KICKER SHOULD BE LACKING. HOWEVER... ANY DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO EITHER MAINTAIN OR KICK OFF THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY APPROACH. WE MAY HAVE TO RAISE POP IN LATER FORECASTS. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 815 PM SATURDAY... VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD FROM OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST AND ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY FOR A LARGE AMOUNT OF THE TIME. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITY (POSSIBLY IFR OR LIFR AT KRWI) DUE TO FOG IN THE VICINITY OF KRDU...KFAY...AND ESPECIALLY KRWI...BETWEEN 07Z-12Z SUNDAY. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL USHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL NC...INCREASING THE PROBABILITY OF EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS. IN ADDITION...THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS CENTRAL NC IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED-SCATTERED AFTERNOON-EVENING CONVECTION. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WSS NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...PWB LONG TERM...PWB AVIATION...77/WSS

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