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000
FXUS62 KRAH 190655
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
255 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure centered over southern Quebec will extend south
into the southern Appalachians through Wednesday. Tropical Cyclone
Jose will continue to move northward well offshore of the DELMARVA
peninsula today, and off the southern New England coast on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 900 PM Monday...

A few very light showers moving just east of the forecast area this
evening as Hurricane Jose moves northward offshore of the Outer
Banks. Aside from a few sprinkles moving through eastern counties
such as Halifax and Edgecombe, the area should remain dry overnight.
Similar situation to the last couple of nights in regards to the
areas that will experience the most fog/low stratus with highest
concentrations in the northeastern part of the area. Tonight`s
assortment will feature MVFR visibilities and IFR ceilings showing
up in the usually times after 8z or so and running through and a
little beyond sunrise. Lows tonight will drop into the low to middle
60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 PM Monday...

Only diurnal cumulus is expected Tuesday with highs only slightly
hampered by northwest flow, reaching the mid 80s over most of the
area. Mins Tuesday night will be perhaps a touch warmer, but still
mainly in the mid 60s as an upper short wave moves across the area
accompanied by some mid to high level cloudiness.

Forcing that might enhance convection is not readily apparent
Wednesday in a lingering weak trof regime in the wake of Jose.
Plenty of sun is in the offing, which will allow modification of the
airmass to reach the mid and upper 80s, and very low 90s are
possible along the far southern counties. Mins on Wednesday night
will be persistence...mostly mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 255 AM Tuesday...

Central NC will be under the influence of high pressure through much
of the extended forecast period, resulting in a predominantly dry
forecast. A weak trough over the region could result in some showers
on Thursday and Friday, primarily in the southwest, but chances are
no more than slight. Also, expect skies to be mostly sunny/partly
cloudy through the period. Temperatures will be highest on
Thursday/Thursday night with highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows
in the mid to upper 60s. Expect gradually decreasing temperatures
thereafter as a result of increasing northerly flow and possible
advection of some cooler air. The forecast for Sunday onward remains
highly uncertain as it will depend on the track of Maria, which will
depend on what happens with Jose. As a result, very low confidence
in the forecast for Monday and Tuesday.

The more interesting features of the extended period will be the
tropics and what happens with Jose and Maria. Jose is progged to
meander off the NE U.S. coast through the week, with increasing
uncertainty through the weekend. Meanwhile, Maria will be moving
through the Caribbean, northwestward toward the CONUS. As mentioned
above, Maria`s impacts from Sunday onward are still highly uncertain
as they will depend heavily on Jose and if/how the two systems
interact with one another. The medium range models continue to have
significantly different solutions in that regard, making forecast
confidence very low.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 145 AM Tuesday...

A deck of low stratus is expected to materialize and drift southward
across most of the Piedmont and the northern coastal plain early
this morning with widespread IFR/LIFR ceilings expected and MVFR
visibilities due to fog. Some uncertainty whether the adverse
aviation parameters will make it as far south as KFAY. Conditions
are expected to improve after 13Z, with VFR parameters expected
areawide by 15Z. Sfc winds, at less than 10 kts, will gradually back
to a nwly direction this morning as Jose` moves northward well
offshore of the Outer Banks and the DELMARVA peninsula.

VFR parameters generally expected across central NC Wednesday
through Saturday, though a few showers may occur Thursday into
Friday as a weak upper disturbance and associated sfc front crosses
the region. A brief instance of MVFR ceilings/visibility will occur
in vicinity of the isolated showers.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...Ellis
SHORT TERM...mlm
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...WSS