Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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178 FXUS62 KRAH 190903 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 403 AM EST Mon Feb 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure is expected to drift offshore this morning as a weak warm front begins to lift north through the area. A strong high pressure will build back in on Tuesday, bringing the potential for record warmth by mid week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 400 AM Monday... Light rain persisting as a warm front starts to work northward into the area from central SC. This is providing substantial isentropic lift, particularly on the 290K surface. The area of light rain associated with this is progged to move northward and out of the area by about 15z with a few lingering showers into the afternoon. As surface high pressure moves northeastward off of the Cape Cod coast, a weak damming wedge will set up keeping temperatures in the Triad a bit cooler than the rest of the area today with highs in the mid 50s vs mid 60s across the south. As the high drifts further offshore, the wedge will break down and a southerly return flow pattern will take over. A very moist surface level will promote a period of dense fog late Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Lows in the upper 40s across the north to upper 50s in the southeast. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 400 AM Monday... Continued return flow pattern over central NC with the Bermuda high in place with an upper level ridge present off of the Carolina Coast. After fog burns off expect partly to mostly cloudy skies for much of the morning before some clearing by afternoon. Continued warm air advection will result in well above normal temperatures Tuesday afternoon with highs in the low 70s across the Triad to upper 70s to very close to 80 degrees in the southeast. No precipitation is expected, however a slight chance of a shower in the NW Piedmont is possible. Lows will moderate into the upper 50s to low 60s Tuesday night. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 220 PM Sunday... High confidence for record-breaking warm weather for the middle of the week. A 595 ridge centered off the SE coast and resulting southerly flow over our area will give us unseasonably warm conditions during the middle of the week, with perhaps some record highs. This ridge will flatten and shift south during the latter half of the week, which will allow a cold front to approach from the north on Thursday, dropping southward to roughly the I-85 corridor. There is some uncertainty as to how far south into North Carolina the front will progress on Friday. Regardless, it appears that low-end PoPs will be needed for at least the northern half of our CWA for late Wednesday through Thursday. Thereafter, if the front lifts back north on Friday, that would result in a drier forecast for Friday and Saturday. However, if it pushes further south on Friday then lifts back north on Saturday, that would result in lingering rain chances both days. Dry and unseasonably warm weather is in store for Sunday. Temperature records are likely to be broken Tuesday, Wednesday, and perhaps Thursday. Maximum readings will be in the 70s to the lower 80s. Overnight lows in the 50s to around 60 will come close to record warm lows. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1230 AM Monday... 24 Hour TAF Period: Strengthening southerly warm moist air advection will result in aviation conditions deteriorating rapidly between 06 to 12z. Ceilings will lower to IFR to LIFR between 06z to 14z, with light rain reducing visibilities to IFR to MVFR. The light rain is expected to taper to drizzle by late morning/early afternoon, before ending by mid afternoon. Once precip ends, ceilings are expected to lift to IFR and MVFR with visibilities improving to MVFR to VFR. However, CIGS/VSBYS are expected to quickly lower back into the IFR to LIFR range Monday night, with dense fog likely. Outlook: VFR conditions return on Tuesday. With the exception of some early morning stratus/fog in the unseasonably warm and humid air mass for February, expect generally VFR conditions through late week. && .CLIMATE... RDU Records: Date | High Year | High Min Year ------------------------------------------ 02/20 75 1939 62 1939 02/21 76 2011 55 1939 02/22 75 1897 60 1897 02/23 79 1980 57 1962 02/24 81 1982 58 1985 GSO Records: Date | High Year | High Min Year ------------------------------------------ 02/20 74 1922 56 1939 02/21 74 2011 50 1954 02/22 74 1925 57 1980 02/23 74 2017 52 1922 02/24 79 1982 55 1985 FAY Records: Date | High Year | High Min Year ------------------------------------------- 02/20 82 2014 60 1939 02/21 80 1991 61 1953 02/22 77 2003 56 1989 02/23 80 1922 55 1922 02/24 83 1930 60 1975 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JJM NEAR TERM...Ellis SHORT TERM...Ellis LONG AVIATION...CBL/Badgett CLIMATE...Badgett is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.