Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 241053 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 650 AM EDT Tue May 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS...An upper level low off the Mid-Atlantic coast will continue to move northeastward away from the area this morning. High pressure will build in to the region through midweek. && .NEAR TERM /through tonight/... As of 340 AM Tuesday... An upper level low located off the NJ coast this morning will move the New England coast today, giving way to 50m+ height rises and a developing subsidence inversion as a ridge near the MS River Valley builds toward the East Coast and a 1020mb high slides overhead. Lingering mid/upper level moisture over the northern Coastal Plain will depart with the upper low, yielding mostly sunny skies as thicknesses climb back toward normal to near 1390m this afternoon. Highs 80-84. the surface high will quickly shift off the Southeast coast tonight, but the pressure gradient will remain weak, resulting in strong radiational cooling and lows dipping back into the mid 50s. && .SHORT TERM /Wednesday and Wednesday Night/... As of 340 AM Tuesday... The warming trend will continue on Wednesday as a 588dm H5 ridge builds over the Deep South and return flow develops around the offshore high. Given better heating into the mid 80s to near 90, a thermally enhanced Piedmont trough should develop, but moisture return will will be slow with PW remaining below one inch, and a mid- level subsident cap will stifle any destabilization or convection. Some mid-clouds may drift in from the west late Wednesday night as disturbances emanating from Central Plains convection start to encroach on the region. Otherwise, another mostly clear night and lows in the low/mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 355 AM Tuesday... The pattern aloft this period will be characterized by a western CONUS trough and an a ridge from near Bermuda to Ontario/Quebec. At the base of/beneath the eastern ridge, southern stream energy -- the lead of which is now crossing the lower-middle MS Valley-- will help re-develop a mid to upper-level low INVOF the Bahamas during the next couple of days. A shear axis, or weakness between sub- tropical ridge centers near Bermuda, and across much of the Gulf of Mexico and north-central Mexico, will extend north from the low over the Bahamas, into the southeastern U.S. The trend in model guidance in the past 24 hours has been toward a more pronounced surface reflection in association with the Bahamas low, which subsequently would get steered --at the base of the sub- tropical ridge near Bermuda-- toward the southeast U.S. coast this weekend. Thu-Fri: Subsidence in association with the sub-tropical ridge near Bermuda, along with the absence of lifting mechanisms and incomplete modification of the initially cool and dry continental air mass over the eastern U.S., will help suppress deep convection over central NC late this week. Sat-Mon: There remains a high degree of uncertainty in the details, but the overwhelming trend toward a more substantial influence from the aforementioned low pressure near the southeast U.S coast suggests we are likely to see an increase in clouds and precipitation chances as the weekend wears on, some of which may linger into early next week, as whatever becomes of the aforementioned low pressure may get trapped beneath the higher latitude ridging to the north. Thicknesses support temps slightly above normal, though tempered by the increase in clouds. && .AVIATION /12Z Tuesday through Saturday/...
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As of 650 AM Tuesday... An upper level low off the Mid-Atlantic coast will pull away from the region, with high pressure building in its wake. VFR conditions and a light northwesterly winds are expected to prevail today and tonight. Long term: VFR conditions should prevail through much of the week. The chance of showers/storms and adverse aviation conditions will increase over the upcoming weekend.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...22 NEAR TERM...22 SHORT TERM...22 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...22

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