Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 191633 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1132 AM EST Thu Jan 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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An upper level trough over the Tennessee Valley this afternoon will pivot northeast over western North Carolina into Virginia tonight and Friday. This will be followed by a brief quiet period Friday afternoon and night. Then... a strong storm system is expected to affect the region over the weekend into Monday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1132 AM Thursday... The cooler and drier air mass was in place over the region courtesy of the surface high pressure. The latest data indicated mostly sunny to sunny skies. Satellite and surface observations support sunny skies becoming partly sunny in the west later today. Highs are still expected to reach the upper 50s to lower 60s with light and variable winds. Cloud cover will begin continue to increase from the southwest this evening as a southern stream system approaches. Rain chances will increase for the SW Piedmont after 06z, and spread northeast overnight. QPF of around 0.25 NW to less than 0.10 expected SE. Lows in the mid 40s to near 50.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 335 AM Thursday... Rain will continue across central NC on Friday as a disorganized frontal system moves across the area. Rain will continue into the late afternoon or early evening ending from west to east as it does so. Total accumulations of rainfall are expected to be somewhere in the neighborhood of a tenth to a quarter of an inch. Temperatures will be dictated by cloud cover but warm air advection ahead of the system will bring max temps up into the mid 60s across the south, with upper 50s to low 60s across the north. Lows Friday night in the upper 40s to low 50s. && .LONG TERM /Saturday through Wednesday/... As of 340 AM Thursday... A wet and somewhat stormy pattern will reach a crescendo late Sun through Sun night as a powerful mid level low and mature surface frontal system impact the region. A drier and quieter weather period will begin late Mon and last through Wed. Sat/Sat night: A subtle mid level wave will sweep NE through the region, accompanied by a slug of upper divergence in the nose of a weak southwesterly low level jet. With PW surging well up above normal, this forcing for ascent should have no trouble producing showers over NC, most numerous across the S and E. A brief lull will follow late Sat afternoon into the evening, however the approach of another stronger perturbation from the SW and an even stronger and extensive low level jet nosing in from the south will prompt a return to widespread rain late Sat night. Highs in the low-mid 60s and lows in the mid-upper 50s with cloudy skies. Sun through Mon night: Widespread rain should be ongoing early Sun, fueled by the aforementioned wave, strong low level mass convergence, and another batch of vigorous upper divergence associated with an upper jetlet on the SE side of the digging low over the Gulf States. This should be followed by yet another short lull in precip coverage and intensity early Sun afternoon, before the powerful mid level low tracks east then northeast across GA and the Carolinas through Mon, bringing numerous showers and storms, peaking Sun evening and night before tapering from south to north Mon as the dry slot wrapping around the low punches in from the south. An uptick in shower coverage is possible Mon afternoon as the core of the mid level low and attendant steep lapse rates drift over the region. Rapidly rising heights as the low shifts to our NNE will induce drying and an end to precip Mon night. A few strong storms remain possible from mid afternoon Sun through Sun evening, with a 70-90 kt mid level jet streak accompanying the powerful upper divergence and steep 700-500 mb lapse rates, topping 7.5 C/km according to the GFS. Timing will be crucial, as the ECMWF is up to 12 hrs faster than the GFS with the arrival of the mid level low. CIPS analog guidance at this range hints at a greater threat for FL, historically speaking, but GFS forecast soundings for central NC showing lengthy wavy hodographs and moderate instability support at least a modest risk of severe storms in our area, including a tornado risk along and north of the occluding frontal system. Highs in the 60s to near 70 Sun, lows from the upper 40s to mid 50s Sun night, and upper 50s to mid 60s for highs Mon. Lows in the 40s Mon night. Tue through Wed: Mid level heights rise over the Southeast as a mid level ridge axis shifts over the region, while surface high pressure crosses the northern Gulf and FL. Expect fair skies with slightly cooler but still above normal temps. -GIH && .AVIATION /18Z TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 1130 AM Thursday... VFR conditions will continue through 06Z/tonight. Ceilings will begin to lower from the SW later this evening and overnight. MVFR TO IFR conditions expected with areas of rain and fog between 09Z- 15Z/Friday. The rain is expected to end by late morning, with a return to MVFR then VFR conditions during Friday afternoon. Long term: VFR conditions will continue into Friday night. However, a warm front will approach late Friday night and Saturday. This will bring IFR to MVFR conditions Saturday with areas of rain and fog. Another system will bring adverse aviation conditions with rain, fog, low ceilings, and thunderstorm chances Saturday night through Monday morning.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...Badgett SHORT TERM...Ellis LONG TERM...Hartfield AVIATION...Badgett

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