Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 220623 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 223 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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.AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN VA AND NORTHEASTERN NC THIS MORNING...THEN MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY. ASSOCIATED COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND LIFT UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THURSDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OTHERWISE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 912 PM TUESDAY... SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED MOVING INTO THE NC COASTAL PLAIN WILL EXIT THE AREA SHORTLY...IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING SEWD INTO SOUTHERN VA/NORTHEAST NC. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT...NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER...JUST EAST OF INTERSTATE 95. OTHERWISE...FROPA ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS PAST EVENING HAS BEEN DRY WITH ACCOMPANYING BROKEN/OVERCAST MID CLOUD DECK SPREADING EASTWARD. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NE ZONES...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH NWLY WIND GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS WELL INTO THE NIGHT. AS SUCH...CAA WILL GOVERN OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING IN THE MID 40S OVER THE WEST TO THE UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 EAST. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 307 PM TUESDAY... WEDNESDAY... AN UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW OVER CENTRAL NC. PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THIS FLOW IN CONJUNCTION WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NE HALF THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (7-7.5 DEG C/KM) COUPLED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO...MAINLY IN VICINITY OF ROANOKE RAPIDS/WARRENTON AND TARBORO. FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...AIR MASS APPEARS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS. N-NW WINDS WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL CAA MORE PRONOUNCED WITH THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE REGION. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER 60S IN THE NW WITH MID-UPPER 60S COMMON ELSEWHERE. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO PULL OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE WILL RID ARE AREA OF ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND CLOUDINESS. LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL PERSIST...AIDING TO MAINTAIN OVERNIGHT TEMPS. OF SFC WINDS WERE TO DECOUPLE (MAINLY WESTERN-SOUTHERN PIEDMONT)...COULD SEE MIN TEMPS AS LOW AS THE MID 30S AT A FEW SPOTS. FOR NOW WILL BOTTOM OUT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE WESTERN-SOUTHERN PIEDMONT WITH IN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 40S ELSEWHERE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY... THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING WILL BRIEFLY APPROACH/BUILD OVER THE AREA. NEAR TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE DEVELOPMENT/MOVEMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT-EARLY WED. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM SHOULD MAINTAIN VARYING CLOUDINESS NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING TOWARD MORNING. 850MB THERMAL TROUGH POSITIONED TO OUR NW TONIGHT WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL ADVECTION ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE DEEP MID LEVEL LOW SLOWLY CONTINUES TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY SKIES-CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER... WITH THE DEPARTING SYSTEM... WE MAY SEE SUSTAINED NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE... WITH SOME GUSTS OF AROUND 20 MPH OR SO DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF THURSDAY. AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL THICKNES VALUES AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1350S TO 1360S. THUS... GIVEN FULL SUN IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT OF A DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL GO WITH HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A WEAKENING WIND ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S... WITH A FEW UPPER 30S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE USUAL RURAL COLD SPOTS. ONE LAST S/W DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST ON THURSDAY AND MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MUCH STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE GFS AND NAM. HOWEVER... WITH SUCH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE PRECEDING THE FEATURE AND LACK OF ANY REAL MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF IT MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY PRECIP BEING GENERATED ACROSS CENTRAL NC AS IT ACROSS THE AREA. THUS... WILL JUST SHOW AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ON FRIDAY. HOW STRONG THE SYSTEM ENDS UP BEING WILL HAVE AN AFFECT ON HIGH TEMPS THOUGH (WITH CLOUD COVER BEING THE VARIABLE IN QUESTION). FOR NOW WILL JUST SHOW PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ON FRIDAY... WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 SOUTH. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S. SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: QUITE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. MID LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK... YIELDING A WARMING TREND. EXPECT TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TEMPS TO START THE PERIOD... INCREASING TO HIGH TEMPS A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS THIS WEEKEND AROUND 70/LOWER 70S... WITH TEMPS WARMING TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY... WITH POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 70S BY TUESDAY. GIVEN THE PATTERN CHANCE TO RIDING ALOFT... SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE MOSTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THIS ENTIRE PERIOD. THIS SHOULD YIELD A NICE DIURNAL TEMP RANGE... GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS AND RATHER LIGHT WINDS EXPECT FROM SUNDAY ONWARD. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S... TO AROUND 50 ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 220 AM TUESDAY... THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN VA AND NORTHEASTERN NC THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN VICINITY/ SCATTERED SHOWERS AT KRWI THROUGH AROUND 20Z...AND PERHAPS AS FAR WEST AS KRDU AS THE BRUNT OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW ARRIVES THROUGH 12Z. AFTER AN INITIAL BAND OF ALTOCUMULUS PASSES KFAY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AT KFAY AND AT TRIAD TERMINALS. MEANWHILE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW AT KRDU AND ESPECIALLY KRWI...VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CEILINGS/CLOUD BASES MOSTLY BETWEEN 4000-8000 FT...AND TOPS IN SHOWERS UP TO 17 THOUSAND FT. OTHERWISE...A STEADY WNW TO NW SURFACE WIND...WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST INTO THE MID-UPPER TEENS KTS...WILL CONTINUE AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE LOW-MID TEENS KTS WITH PEAK GUSTS IN THE LOWER 20S KTS...ONCE DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING COMMENCES BY 15Z...AND IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING MSL PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. OUTLOOK: BREEZY NW WINDS AGAIN THU. OTHERWISE...VFR...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO REMAIN SITUATED JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND IN CENTRAL NC...THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...CBL/WSS SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...BSD AVIATION...MWS

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