Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 081125 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 625 AM EST Thu Dec 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS... An arctic cold front will move through the area today. An expansive arctic high will dominate Friday through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 250 AM Thursday... Trailing mid/upper level trough axis associated with the closed low tracking across SE Canada will move into the eastern US today and tonight, and will usher in the first true Arctic airmass of the season. Weak/shallow upglide ahead of the leading edge of this Arctic intrusion will support low clouds along with a chance of some sprinkles this morning. Onset of strong cold dry air advection will lead to abrupt west to east clearing by the afternoon, though some jet stream cirrus clouds will result in some milky high clouds. Highs ranging from lower 50s NW to upper 50s southeast with occasional post-frontal wind gusts into the teens. Strong CAA will continue overnight as expansive Arctic high begins east into the region. Overnight lows in the mid 20s to upper 20s with a steady wind 7kt breeze resulting in chill values in the teens. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 250 AM Thursday... The expansive arctic high pressure will dominate the eastern two- thirds of the country Friday and right on through the weekend. H8 temps crash to -10 Celsius Friday-Friday night, which is easily 2 to 3 standard deviations below normal, while low-level thicknesses bottoming out around 1275 meters. This will support temps a good 10 to 15 degrees below normal. Highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Lows in upper teens to lower 20s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 245 AM Thursday... Expect highs on Saturday to be similar to Friday, albeit a few degrees warmer, as arctic high pressure centered over the region begins to modify. The latest 00Z GFS/ECMWF guidance remains as divided as previous runs with regard to the timing/evolution of the next shortwave/surface low/cold front anticipated to approach the Carolinas from from the west early next week. Since long range guidance has failed to converge on a similar solution thus far for Sunday/Monday, forecast confidence remains well below normal. As such, little change will be made to the long term forecast (Sun-Wed) at this time. -Vincent && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 625 AM THURSDAY... Weak/shallow upglide/WAA ahead of an arctic cold front that will move through the area between 12 to 18z Thursday will result in the development of IFR to MVFR CIGS areawide between 06 to 12z. Some patchy/spotty light rain is also possible, but MVFR VSBYS should be the lowest category forecast. Strong post-frontal low-level dry cold air advection will clear out the Sub-VFR ceilings from west to east between 12 to 18z. Expect sustained west-northwest winds to 8-12kt, with gusts into the 18 to 22kt range, strongest in the west. Outlook: VFR conditions are expected through the weekend. The next chance of sub-VFR conditions will be early next week.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...Vincent AVIATION...CBL

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