Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 040800
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
300 AM EST THU FEB 04 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WILL
SHIFT SLOWLY EAST TO THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT... AS
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT. THIS FRONT
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING... THEN COOL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...

TODAY: MORE WET WEATHER TODAY... ESPECIALLY EAST/SOUTH OF THE TRIAD.
THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITTING JUST NW OF THE CWA... AND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY... REACHING COASTAL SECTIONS BY SUNDOWN. BUT THE FRONTAL ZONE
JUST ALOFT WILL LAG THIS FRONT BY SEVERAL HOURS WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
MID LEVEL FLOW STILL ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE FRONT...
HINDERING ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT. THE STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL JET
FROM NE TN UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIME WILL INDUCE A BATCH OF ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE WHICH WILL
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL/ERN NC FROM MID MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON... RESULTING IN A RESURGENCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
BACK TOWARD THE WNW... AS PW VALUES REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL... IN
THE 1.0-1.5 INCH RANGE. SO... AFTER A RELATIVE BREAK IN STEADY
RAINFALL EARLY THIS MORNING (LOWER CHANCES MAINLY SE HALF)... WILL
TREND POPS BACK UP TO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL OVER THE SE TWO-THIRDS
THIS MORNING... WITH LOWER CHANCES NW... LASTING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE 850 MB TROUGH FINALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL/ERN NC TONIGHT WITH ENSUING DRYING DOWNSLOPE FLOW FROM THE
NW... AND THE INTENSE UPPER DIVERGENCE DIMINISHES FROM SW TO NE AS
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION SHIFTS TO OUR ENE. WILL TREND POPS DOWN
GRADUALLY FROM WSW TO ENE LATE TONIGHT... ALTHOUGH THE FAR ERN
COASTAL PLAIN WILL STILL HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH THE
LATE NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL ROOTED FORCING FOR ASCENT REMAINS STRONG
THERE. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A HALF INCH WEST OF HIGHWAY 1... WHILE ALONG
AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 1... WE SHOULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL 0.75-1.75
INCHES OF RAIN. THIS ADDED RAINFALL IN THE EAST IS UNLIKELY TO BE
PARTICULARLY HEAVY... REMAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE... AND WILL FALL
OVER A LONG ENOUGH DURATION TO LIMIT WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONCERNS...
PARTICULARLY CONSIDERING THE SANDY NATURE OF THE SOIL IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN. HOWEVER... RISING RIVERS AND SWOLLEN CREEKS ALONG WITH
NUISANCE STREET FLOODING AND HIGH WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS ARE
ALL A NEAR CERTAINTY... AND WILL ADDRESS THIS CONCERN IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. TEMPS WILL FALL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS
THE COOLER LOW LEVEL AIR EASES IN... SO THE CURRENTLY READINGS ARE
LIKELY TO BE THE CALENDAR DAY HIGHS. EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL THROUGH
THE 50S TODAY... AND INTO THE 40S NW TO SE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT... BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 33-39 RANGE. THE COLDER AIR TONIGHT
WILL GENERALLY BE CHASING THE MOISTURE... WITH DRYING TAKING PLACE
ALOFT LATE... BUT A FEW INCONSEQUENTIAL WET FLAKES MAY OCCUR LATE
TONIGHT IN THE NE CWA AS THE PRECIP EXITS. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM WEDNESDAY...

PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN/EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
LIKELY SEE RAIN INTO THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL
FINALLY MOVE OUT OF THE BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS
THE FRONT IS PUSHED OFFSHORE. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN WITH THE
FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S/LOWER 60S ON THURSDAY AND EVEN COOLER
BY FRIDAY ONCE THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES WELL OFFSHORE AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 40S/LOW
50S... WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S/LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM WEDNESDAY...

PRECIP WILL LIKELY RETURN TO THE REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY (CONSIDERABLY EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS) AS A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST US AND INDUCES A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVES UP THE COAST. MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOMEWHAT
BETTER AGREEMENT...THUS CONFIDENCE (IN AT LEAST PRECIP COVERAGE) IS
SLOWLY INCREASING. PRECIP SHOULD MOVE BACK INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.
WHERE LOWER CONFIDENCE EXISTS IS WHETHER OR NOT P-TYPE WILL BE AN
ISSUE. AT THIS TIME...GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROFILES...WILL
INTRODUCE RAIN AND/OR SNOW AT BOTH THE ONSET LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN AGAIN AS IT PULLS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER EVEN DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING
DOWN SOME ARCTIC AIR OUT OF CANADA...WITH THE AREA SEEING HIGHS IN
THE 30S AND 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW WITH
RESPECT TO HOW THIS WILL ULTIMATELY EVOLVE...THEREFORE WILL NOT PUT
A LOT OF DETAIL IN THE PRECIP FORECAST. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE ARCTIC
AIR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE...P-TYPE ISSUES COULD POTENTIALLY BECOME A
PROBLEM FOR NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 115 AM THURSDAY...

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS -- MOSTLY IFR -- WILL DOMINATE AT ALL SITES
THIS MORNING... ALTHOUGH IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR THEN VFR IS EXPECTED AT
INT/GSO TOWARD DAYBREAK. RDU/RWI/FAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IFR OR
PERHAPS LOW-END MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HRS.

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS WILL TRACK SLOWLY
EASTWARD TODAY... REACHING COASTAL NC TONIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT... RESULTING
IN MULTIPLE CLOUD DECKS OVER OUR AREA THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. IFR/LIFR CIGS AT INT/GSO ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MVFR
THEN VFR IN THE 11Z-14Z TIME FRAME AND REMAIN VFR THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. FURTHER EAST HOWEVER... CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD
IN THE 500-1500 FT AGL RANGE THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD... WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN REDUCING VSBYS TO MVFR OR IFR ESPECIALLY FROM MID
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON (MAINLY 15Z-22Z) AS A WEAK TROUGH
ALOFT CROSSES THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS INITIALLY LIGHT FROM THE SW
WILL SWING AROUND TO NW THEN FROM THE NORTH OR NNE... FIRST AT
INT/GSO EARLY THIS MORNING THEN TO RDU BY MID MORNING AND TO RWI/FAY
BY LATE MORNING. SOME GUSTY WINDS FROM THE NNE UP TO 20 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY FRI MORNING... SUB-VFR CONDITIONS (MOSTLY
IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS) WILL HOLD UNTIL NEAR OR SOON AFTER DAYBREAK
FRI... WHEN A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER AND EXITS
THE AREA. THEN... VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY... ALTHOUGH ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING
A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LATE IN THE PERIOD... MAINLY SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...HARTFIELD


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