Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000
FXUS62 KRAH 280719
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
319 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND
TRACK ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES MONDAY...THEN MOVE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 PM SATURDAY...

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES EXTEDNING SOUTH ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE OF VIRGINIA. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC HAS RELAXED...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. SKIES ARE
GENERALLY CLEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME STRATO-CUMULUS WITH A
NORTHERN EXTENT THAT STRETCHES IN AN ARC FROM NEAR WILMINGTON
NORTHWEST TO NEAR LUMBERTON OVER TO CHARLOTTE. THESE CLOUDS WILL
TEND TO LIFT NORTHWARD VERY SLOWLY OVERNIGHT WHILE SOME HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS MORE RAPIDLY SPREAD NORTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL NC
LATE TONIGHT. ACCORDINGLY THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS DECOUPLED AND CALM
WINDS ARE BEING WIDELY REPORTED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
NOCTURNAL STABLE LAYER. AREAS OF FOG ARE DEVELOPING NORTH AND EAST
OF BURLINGTON....SANFORD AND GOLDSBORO. WHILE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
ISN`T EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE ROCKY-MOUNT...RALEIGH AND HENDERSON AREAS IS EXPECTED.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE QUITE VARIABLE BASED ON RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
LOCATION TENDENCIES WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE
NORTH AND IN COOLER SPOTS TO NEAR 60S IN THE AREAS OF STATO
CUMULUS NEAR THE SC BORDER. -BLAES
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...

SHORTWAVE EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
MONDAY MORNING... WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER GA/FL.
THIS IS FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. TAIL END OF THE
UPPER JET EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD LIFT... HOWEVER GIVEN THE POSITION OF
THE LOW FURTHER SOUTH...  MOISTURE TRANSPORT LOOKS LIMITED. HAVE
SCALED BACK QPF TO UNDER A HALF INCH ACROSS THE AREA... LOWER
AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE VA BORDER.

SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING... AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. PRECIP WILL DIMINISH AS
SUBSIDENCE AND MIDLEVEL DRYING FOLLOWS... HOWEVER LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE IN TO WEDNESDAY. WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING WILL ALSO
PROLONG LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER IN TO EARLY WEDNESDAY. PARENT HIGH
REMAINS FAR TO THE NORTH OVER QUEBEC... UNFAVORABLY POSITIONED FOR A
PROLONGED DAMMING EVENT... AND ANY REMAINING WEDGE WILL ERODE DURING
THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS
TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 318 AM SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY... AS A
STRONG TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.  MODEL
AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO BE GOOD... WITH THE PARENT LOW MOVING NORTH
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL
LIKELY BE DEPENDENT ON THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 210 AM SUNDAY...

UNDER THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF MODIFIED CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION TO VFR WILL BE SHALLOW FOG AND
ASSOCIATED LIFR-MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT KRWI/KRDU/KFAY...
LOWEST AND LONGEST AT KRWI. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MAINLY SCATTERED MVFR
RANGE CLOUD BASES MAY FOLLOW AS THE MOIST LAYER RISES AND DISPERSES
THROUGH 16Z AT KRWI AND KFAY. OTHERWISE...BENEATH PERIODS OF PASSING
CIRRUS...AN AREA OF 6-8 THOUSAND FT STRATOCUMULUS NEAR THE SC BORDER
THIS MORNING WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO CENTRAL NC TODAY...MOST NOTABLY
AT WESTERN TERMINALS WHERE ASSOCIATED CEILINGS COULD RESULT BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

OUTLOOK: THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WEST WILL
CAUSE MID-HIGH CLOUDS TO THICKEN AND LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
TONIGHT...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES FROM MID LEVEL CLOUD BASES AT
TRIAD TERMINALS AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY. A PERIOD OF MEASURABLE RAIN
AND CEILINGS LOWERING INTO MVFR RANGE WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE MON INTO
EARLY TUE...ESPECIALLY AT KFAY...AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS AND TRACKS ACROSS THE GULF COAST (WELL SOUTH OF CENTRAL
NC). A SURGE IN NE LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AT KRWI AND
KFAY ON WED.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...BLAES
SHORT TERM...SEC
LONG TERM...SEC
AVIATION...MWS



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