Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 242345
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
745 PM EDT SUN APR 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY... RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT WILL BRING WARM
TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...

THROUGH TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDATLANTIC COAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH ERN NC WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE
EASTWARD OFF THE COAST LATE TONIGHT... AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. THE 850 MB ANTICYCLONE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
CAROLINAS TONIGHT... CAUSING THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE BENEATH THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT TO BECOME TRAPPED AND RESISTANT TO
DISPERSION WITH LOW LEVEL STABILIZATION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF PATCHY STRATOCU LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING... BUT
OVERALL SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NC
TONIGHT EXCEPT PERHAPS A PERIOD OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WEST. LOWS
FROM THE UPPER 40S EAST TO THE LOWER 50S WEST.

MON/MON NIGHT: MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DIGGING FROM NV TOWARD THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD RIDGING ALOFT DOWNSTREAM
OVER THE GULF STATES AND MID SOUTH... ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS BEING
HINDERED SOMEWHAT BY A LARGE POLAR LOW OVER SE CANADA. THE SURFACE
HIGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE OFFSHORE WITH SSW LOW LEVEL FLOW PICKING
UP... DRAWING WARMER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THICKNESSES START
OUT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BUT RISE STEADILY THROUGH THE DAY...
FAVORING MILD HIGHS AROUND 80... WITH FLAT MOSTLY SCATTERED
CUMULUS... LIKELY GREATER COVERAGE OVER THE PIEDMONT NEAR A WEAK LEE
TROUGH. WARM MON NIGHT WITH LIGHT SW WINDS AND FAIR SKIES. LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM SUNDAY...

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT AND LONG TERM PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST WITH MUCH OF THE QUESTION EARLY ON SURROUNDING A FRONTAL
SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED TO DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH INTO NC.
MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME FIGURING OUT JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE
FRONT WILL MAKE IT AND MOST SOLUTIONS HAVE IT STALLING OUT SOMEWHERE
OVER THE STATE...WHICH MAKES THE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL NC VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY AND
WARM ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT HANGS OUT TO THE NORTH...BUT VA BORDER
COUNTIES COULD SEE A SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE IN THE EVENING.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE MID 80S AS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW AT THE
SURFACE. SLIGHT CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN AT A MINIMUM
EXCEPT POSSIBLY ACROSS THE NORTH. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.

ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL SINK FURTHER SOUTH AND RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. AGAIN...HOW FAR SOUTH THE
FRONT MAKES IT WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
SOUTH. BY AFTERNOON...INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...WHERE THUNDER WILL BE MORE OF A THREAT THEN
POINTS NORTH AND EAST. HIGHS SHOULD BE DOWN TO THE LOW 80S ACROSS
THE NORTH BUT STILL IN THE MID 80S ACROSS THE SOUTH. SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS AGAIN NEAR 60 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM SUNDAY...

CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES WELL INTO THE LONG TERM AS CENTRAL NC GETS
SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE RETREATING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH (NOW A WARM
FRONT) AND A SECOND COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST...BOTH STEMMING FROM A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE
OHIO VALLEY. THE SYSTEM IS NOT VERY ORGANIZED AT ALL...ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT...SO IT IS HARD TO TELL EXACTLY HOW PRECIPITATION WILL PLAY
OUT...BUT THE PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA UNTIL THE LOW EXITS THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY.
SINCE THE COOL AIR TO THE NORTH NEVER REALLY MAKES IT INTO NC...HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE 80S WITH LOWS
STILL IN THE 60S.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET BEHIND THE FRONT
AND THIS LOOKS LIKE THE DRIEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE EDGING DOWN FROM THE NORTH...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER...UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

FOR SUNDAY...MODELS ARE TRACKING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY THAT IS MUCH MORE ORGANIZED AND HAS AN
UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH
IT ACROSS THE COUNTRY FASTER THAN THE LAST SYSTEM. WHILE TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...CENTRAL NC COULD SEE AN UPTICK IN WARM
SECTOR PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WEST. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO
NEAR 80 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM SUNDAY...

24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SUB-VFR VISBYS AT KFAY AND KRWI BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT...WITH WINDS
VEERING AROUND TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY EARLY MONDAY. THE SHIFT TO MORE
OF A SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY ADVECT IN ENOUGH MOISTURE TO RESULT IN SOME
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 4 KFT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT FAIR
WEATHER AND WINDS IN THE 8-12 KTS RANGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD. -KC

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE INTO TUE WITH
DEEP HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE CHANCE
FOR LATE NIGHT AND MORNING SUB-VFR STRATUS AND FOG INCREASES TUE
NIGHT AND AGAIN WED NIGHT...AS A BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH AND SETTLES ACROSS NRN NC. THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED OUT
ALONG OR NEAR THE NC/VA STATE LINE THROUGH FRI. MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WED AND THU AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE OH VALLEY AND MIDATLANTIC REGIONS. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...KC/HARTFIELD



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