Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000
FXUS62 KRAH 210009 RRA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 800 PM SUNDAY...

A WARM FRONT CONTINUED TO BACK INLAND THROUGH THE SANDHILLS AND
COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PIEDMONT OF NC THIS EVENING.
THIS IS THE CURRENT FOCI FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE CONTINUED TO BE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO AND UP AND
OVER THE BOUNDARY WITH DEW POINTS HAVING INCREASED INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 70S WELL INTO THE SE PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS. THE MID/UPPER
SUPPORT IS FAIRLY WEAK BUT STILL PRESENT WITH THE STILL SIGNIFICANT
MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE GULF COAST. WE
WILL RAISE POP TO LIKELY NEAR THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
WITH THE POP LARGELY DIURNAL. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT IN THE MOIST AIR MASS NEAR THE
BOUNDARY. QPF RAISED INTO THE 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH RANGE NEAR THE
BOUNDARY FROM NEAR SOP TO RDU AS WELL. LOWS WILL BE MUCH HIGHER
TONIGHT THAN IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS... REMAINING 70+ ALONG AND NEAR THE
BOUNDARY... WITH MID 60S N-NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY...

MONDAY...SOUTH CAROLINA S/W PROJECTED TO LIFT E-NE INTO SE NC BY
EARLY AFTERNOON THEN OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING.  THIS FEATURE
INTERACTING WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY FAVORABLE
DIVERGENCE ALOFT SHOULD TRIGGER/SUSTAIN SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
EXPECT BULK OF PRECIP TO OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE  FORECAST AREA. A LINGERING SFC RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN-NORTHWEST PIEDMONT MAY SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
PLAN TO VARY POPS FROM CHANCE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH-NW TO LIKELY
ACROSS THE SE THIRD.

SIMILAR TO TODAY...CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO FIRE BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE
S/W...FAVOR MAX TEMPS ON THE COOLER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE (LOWER
80S). IF CONVECTION ABSENT AT EARLY AFTERNOON...TEMPS MAY END UP
REACHING THE MID 80S.

MONDAY NIGHT... SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
AS THE S/W LIFTS OFFSHORE AND ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO STABILIZE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING. STILL COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS PERSIST OR RE-
GENERATE AS ADDITIONAL MINOR LIFT NEWD. POPS CAPPED AT 30-40
PERCENT FOR NOW. MIN TEMPS UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM SUNDAY...

TUESDAY:  CENTRAL NC WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A CLOSED UPR LOW
OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND THE RIDGE OFF THE SE COAST...WITH A WEAK
SHEAR AXIS ELONGATED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. MEANWHILE...INVERTED
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO REMAIN NEAR THE COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW PLENTY OF PWAT (AOA 2 INCHES) ACROSS OUR CWA...BUT
FORECAST CAPE STILL AOB 1000 J/KG AND VERY WEAK DEEP LAYER FLOW. AS
SUCH...LOOK FOR SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
TSTMS...WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING LOCALIZED SLOW-MOVING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.
OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN FOR DAMAGING WIND OR HAIL GIVEN
MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. AIRMASS SHOULD SUPPORT NEAR-NORMAL
HIGHS AROUND 90 IF SOME SUNSHINE CAN BREAK THROUGH THE CLOUDS. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT AROUND 70.

WEDNESDAY: WE`LL SEE A CHANGE TO A MORE TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN WITH
THE PIEDMONT SFC TROUGH SETTING UP AS MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE
MOVING ACROS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOOK FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE CAPE INCREASING TO 1500 J/KG NEAR AND EAST OF THE
TRIANGLE...BUT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 20KT.
THUS...THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND/OR SOME HAIL...BUT THE MAIN CONCERN WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WITH PWAT STILL AROUND
2 INCHES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO OUR CWA LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY AND STALL ACROSS OUR
EASTERN/SOUTHERN ZONES ON FRIDAY. AS SUCH...POPS WILL TREND FROM
HIGHEST NORTHWEST TO LOWEST SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY...THEN FLIPPING TO
HIGHEST SOUTH/EAST TO LOWEST NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. TEMPS ON THURSDAY
STILL ABOVE NORMAL (HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S)
GIVEN THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...THEN COOLING BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT ACROSS OR JUST EAST OF OUR AREA.

NEXT WEEKEND:  AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAKENED OR DISSIPATED TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN DURING THIS TIME WITH SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS AND TEMPS NEAR 90 FOR HIGHS AND
NEAR 70 FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM SUNDAY...

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTH
TO NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL NC...LIKELY BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS IN RAIN TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA (KRDU,
KRWI, KGSO, KINT) OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THEN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITHIN THE INCREASINGLY
MOIST AIR MASS. COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH
DIURNAL HEATING...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO...LOW CLOUDS/FOG (IFR TO LIFR) ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 06-09Z TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...THE CHANCE FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS
THE REGION...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING BY THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW
STRATUS/FOG WILL LIKELY OCCUR EACH MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...32
NEAR TERM...32
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...KRD



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