Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000
FXUS62 KRAH 260601
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
155 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will settle over the eastern Carolinas tonight. A
second cold front will cross the area on Tuesday, followed by high
pressure that will persist over the region through the rest of the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 1000 PM EDT Sunday...

The radar remains mostly clear at this hour except for some what
appears to be virga in a few sporadic patches. Otherwise
precipitation remains south of the forecast area and confined to the
coast in the vicinity of the surface front. With central NC behind
that front temperatures have fallen into the upper 60s already
across the northwest but with upper 70s to near 80 degrees still
lingering across the south. Dewpoints are generally in the mid to
upper 60s across the area. With drying at the surface, fog or low
stratus is not expected tonight although some high level clouds
could remain across the area which could keep our temperatures from
bottoming out. Therefore have lows in the lower 60s and perhaps a
few upper 50s back across the northwest and upper 60s in the
southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 PM EDT Sunday...

Wly flow aloft will induce a weak lee-side sfc trough to develop
Monday across the Piedmont. While this feature would normally aid to
focus convective development this time of year, atmosphere Monday
afternoon appears to be too dry and stable to support anything more
than fair weather cumulus. Thus, will maintain a dry forecast.
Temperatures will average a few degrees below normal for this time
of year, ranging from the lower-middle 80s.

The approach of a mid level s/w and attendant sfc front Monday night
will keep the low level atmosphere stirred-up enough to prohibit
full cooling potential. In addition, will likely see an increase in
mid/high level cloudiness after midnight across the Piedmont. Min
temps 60-65

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 145 PM Sunday...

A cooler airmass settles over the region Tuesday into Wednesday as
the trough axis traverses the area.  Latest model guidance continues
to suggest that a broken line of showers and tstms may move across
central NC Tuesday afternoon as the trough axis approaches and moves
through. Wednesday will be rain free and little if any clouds.

High pressure at the surface will move east of the region Thursday
and Friday.  Rain chances will be very low but temperatures and dew
points will trend upward as a south to southwesterly low level flow
resumes across the Carolinas.

Southerly flow will further increase over the weekend in response to
a short wave moving across the Great Lakes region and a surface
front approaching the Appalachians.  Rain chances will increase
Saturday and Sunday as low level moisture and synoptic scale forcing
increases.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Monday through Friday/...
As of 155 AM Sunday...

A dry airmass will remain in place with VFR conditions through the
next 24 hours over central NC. High cloudiness will increase this
evening through tonight as a strong upper jet races across the Ohio
Valley in response to gradual ampification of an upper trof as moves
over the eastern CONUS. No restrictions to visiblity through the
period due to dryness, and winds will be generally from the
northwest and light.

Outlook for the remainder of the week - High pressure will produce
VFR conditions through the work week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Ellis
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...np/Franklin
AVIATION...mlm


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