Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 011431
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1035 AM EDT WED JUL 01 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BENEATH PREVAILING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
LINGER EAST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THURSDAY...PRIOR TO
THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL STALL OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1035 AM WEDNESDAY...

LITTLE ADJUSTMENT REQUIRED TO NEAR TERM FORECAST.

MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA AT 12Z PER UPPER AIR ANALYSIS.
THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY LIFT NEWD THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT. WEAK
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH AS EVIDENT BY 12Z GSO SOUNDING SHOULD
KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE RELATIVELY CAPPED...INHIBITING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. AFTER 21Z-22Z...ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE SEABREEZE
MAY THREATEN THE FAR SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WHILE HIGHER TERRAIN
CONVECTION MAY DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE YADKIN RIVER VALLEY.
STILL...COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE NO WORSE THAN ISOLATED.

AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S-LOWER 90S STILL APPEAR ON TARGET.

AN APPROACHING MID-UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND ASSOCIATED
SHEAR AXIS PROJECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST-NW LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE THE CLOUD COVER
OVER OUR REGION AND SUSTAIN A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. HAVE MADE MINOR
TWEAKS TO POPS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU BASED ON LATEST TREND OF
RAPID REFRESH MODEL AND 06Z NAM/GFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 257 AM WEDNESDAY...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO THE EVENING AS STRONG SURFACE HEATING
COMBINES WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
LATE IN THE DAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND WILL AGAIN BE THE MAIN WEATHER HAZARDS WITH THESE
STORMS. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE EXPECTED.
INCREASING FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS BY LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO THE
NIGHT FAVORS CONVECTION TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED THAN IS TYPICALLY
EXPECTED DURING THE SUMMER. EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORMS TO DIE OFF
OVERNIGHT OR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH PUSHES EAST. LOWS 68-72.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 257 AM WEDNESDAY...

A CONTINUATION OF THE CURRENT HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FOR EARLY JULY
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDWEST AND EASTERN STATES WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST. DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL
OCCASIONALLY SEND WEAKENING COLD FRONTS INTO OUR REGION. THE TYPICAL
HOT HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH THE OCCASIONALLY
ENHANCED CHANCE OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1035 AM WEDNESDAY...

IFR CEILINGS OVER SOUTHERN NC EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY LIFT AND DISSIPATE. SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS IN THE KFAY
VICINITY BY 16Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS AND A GENERALLY LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WIND ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WESTERLY FLOW
AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A MID-UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTING UP THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY SUGGESTS THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION WILL BE GENERALLY 15 PERCENT OR
LESS.

OUTLOOK: THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND
ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LATE THU-SUN...WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL
STALL OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. SOME IFR-MVFR CEILINGS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EVEN OUTSIDE OF STORMS DURING THAT TIME...MOST LIKELY
FRI-SAT.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...WSS/26


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