Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000
FXUS62 KRAH 281851
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
250 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN STALLED TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
SAG SOUTH INTO THE REGION AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT
AND WILL QUICKLY RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATE SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM THURSDAY...

CURRENTLY CENTRAL NC IS CURRENTLY IN A CONVECTIVE LULL...OWING TO
PRONOUNCED DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS THAT CROSSED AREA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER WARM SECTOR
DESTABILIZATION OF 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE...ALONG THE QUASI-
STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHERN VA/NORTHEAST NC SHOULD
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT TO INITIATE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WITH ADDITIONAL DOWNSTREAM STORM DEVELOPMENT AS A RESULT
OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LIKELY TO
GOOD CHANCE RANGES...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTH NEAR THE FRONT.

STRENGTHENING WESTERLY H5 FLOW WILL IMPROVE SHEAR
VALUES TO 35 TO 40KTS...FAVORABLE FOR MULTICELLS WITH ONE OR TWO
SEVERE CLUSTERS POSSIBLE. MAIN THREAT WILL DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM
WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST-EAST
TONIGHT AS THE STORMS PUSH EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA AS DRIER AIR
SPREADS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM NEAR
60 NORTH TO MID 60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT /...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...

DOMINATED BY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND RISING
HEIGHTS/WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING RE-EXERTS
ITSELF BACK OVER THE AREA...A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS WILL PRECLUDE
ANY RAIN/CONVECTIVE CHANCES ON FRIDAY AS THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...RANGING
FROM UPPER 70S NE TO MID 80S SOUTH.

THE FRONT IS FINALLY FORECAST TO SLIP SLOWLY SOUTH FRIDAY EVENING...
BUT NOT TOO FAR SOUTH...THIS TIME PROGGED TO BRIEFLY STALL ALONG THE
NC/SC STATE LINE ON SATURDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH TO UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM THURSDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NOW LOOK TO BE WET WITH PERIODS OF RAIN...
BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING ON SUNDAY. MODELS OFTEN
SCOUR OUT CAD TOO QUICKLY... EVEN IN THE SPRING (WARM SEASON). THIS
LOOKS TO BE A GREAT CASE OF THAT OVER OUR PIEDMONT DAMMING REGION
SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF WAA RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS
OUR REGION WITH AN AMPLE SUPPLY OF WESTERN ATLANTIC THEN GULF
MOISTURE THAT WILL LIFT UP AND OVER THE DEVELOPING FRONT/THEN COOL
STABLE DOME SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE MODELS AND USING THE ENSEMBLE APPROACH ALONG WITH PATTERN
RECOGNITION... THE MAIN PARENT LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE
FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT TO ARRIVE IN OUR REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK. OUT AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM SUNDAY... A WARM
FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT BACK INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS
SUNDAY. HOWEVER... IN-SITU/HYBRID CAD WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
STABILITY AND THE DIABATIC PROCESS SHOULD THE RAIN BECOME WIDESPREAD
AS CURRENTLY EXPECTED WILL LEAD TO MUCH COOLER HIGHS IN THE 60S
NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE BETWEEN 0.25 TO
0.75 FOR THE QPF. THERE MAY BE A RATHER LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
AND RAINFALL GRADIENT FROM SE TO NW FROM CLINTON TO WINSTON-SALEM BY
LATE SUNDAY IF THE WARM FRONT CAN SURGE INTO THE SE ZONES (PER SOME
OF THE MODELS INCLUDING THE LATEST EC).

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY SHOULD REMAIN RATHER UNSETTLED WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SLOW TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. THEN WHEN THE FRONT DOES MOVE THROUGH... IT MOSTLY
LIKELY WILL STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES INTO TUESDAY.
FOR THOSE THAT NEED RAINFALL AND COOLER TEMPERATURES... THIS LOOKS
TO BE A GREAT SHOT AT BOTH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1PM THURSDAY...

24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT
DESTABILIZATION IN THE WARM SECTOR JUST SOUTH OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS NORTHEAST NC WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW OF THE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
REACH SEVERE LIMITS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL. THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/LOCATION IS LOWER THAN
AVERAGE...EXPECT THAT NORTHERN TERMINALS ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE
AFFECTED BY THE STRONGEST STORMS.

AS THE STORMS MOVE EAST OF THE AREA...AREAS OF STRATUS AND/OR FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING(06 TO 12Z)...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVE SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL. ANY LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS
SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY MID MORNING WITH DRY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH THE STALLED FRONT FINALLY FORECAST TO
PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING.

LOOKING AHEAD: THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL QUICKLY RETURN AS A WARM
FRONT ON SATURDAY...BRINGING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR
CEILINGS ON SATURDAY. WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTION IN ADVANCE
OF A SLOWING MOVING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN ADVERSE
AVIATION CONDITIONS WITH RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...CBL



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