Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 241053

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
650 AM EDT Tue May 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...An upper level low off the Mid-Atlantic coast will
continue to move northeastward away from the area this morning. High
pressure will build in to the region through midweek.


.NEAR TERM /through tonight/...
As of 340 AM Tuesday...

An upper level low located off the NJ coast this morning will move
the New England coast today, giving way to 50m+ height rises and a
developing subsidence inversion as a ridge near the MS River Valley
builds toward the East Coast and a 1020mb high slides overhead.
Lingering mid/upper level moisture over the northern Coastal Plain
will depart with the upper low, yielding mostly sunny skies as
thicknesses climb back toward normal to near 1390m this afternoon.
Highs 80-84.

the surface high will quickly shift off the Southeast coast tonight,
but the pressure gradient will remain weak, resulting in strong
radiational cooling and lows dipping back into the mid 50s.


.SHORT TERM /Wednesday and Wednesday Night/...
As of 340 AM Tuesday...

The warming trend will continue on Wednesday as a 588dm H5 ridge
builds over the Deep South and return flow develops around the
offshore high.  Given better heating into the mid 80s to near 90, a
thermally enhanced Piedmont trough should develop, but moisture
return will will be slow with PW remaining below one inch, and a mid-
level subsident cap will stifle any destabilization or convection.

Some mid-clouds may drift in from the west late Wednesday night as
disturbances emanating from Central Plains convection start to
encroach on the region.  Otherwise, another mostly clear night and
lows in the low/mid 60s.


As of 355 AM Tuesday...

The pattern aloft this period will be characterized by a western
CONUS trough and an a ridge from near Bermuda to Ontario/Quebec.
At the base of/beneath the eastern ridge, southern stream energy --
the lead of which is now crossing the lower-middle MS Valley-- will
help re-develop a mid to upper-level low INVOF the Bahamas during
the next couple of days. A shear axis, or weakness between sub-
tropical ridge centers near Bermuda, and across much of the Gulf of
Mexico and north-central Mexico, will extend north from the low over
the Bahamas, into the southeastern U.S.

The trend in model guidance in the past 24 hours has been toward a
more pronounced surface reflection in association with the Bahamas
low, which subsequently would get steered --at the base of the sub-
tropical ridge near Bermuda-- toward the southeast U.S. coast this

Thu-Fri: Subsidence in association with the sub-tropical ridge near
Bermuda, along with the absence of lifting mechanisms and incomplete
modification of the initially cool and dry continental air mass over
the eastern U.S., will help suppress deep convection over central NC
late this week.

Sat-Mon: There remains a high degree of uncertainty in the details,
but the overwhelming trend toward a more substantial influence from
the aforementioned low pressure near the southeast U.S coast
suggests we are likely to see an increase in clouds and
precipitation chances as the weekend wears on, some of which may
linger into early next week, as whatever becomes of the
aforementioned low pressure may get trapped beneath the higher
latitude ridging to the north. Thicknesses support temps slightly
above normal, though tempered by the increase in clouds.


.AVIATION /12Z Tuesday through Saturday/...
As of 650 AM Tuesday...

An upper level low off the Mid-Atlantic coast will pull away from
the region, with high pressure building in its wake.  VFR conditions
and a light northwesterly winds are expected to prevail today and

Long term: VFR conditions should prevail through much of the week.
The chance of showers/storms and adverse aviation conditions will
increase over the upcoming weekend.





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