Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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824
FXUS62 KRAH 210124
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
925 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring dry and seasonably hot weather to the
region for the start of the work week. A strong cold front will bring
increasing rain chances for the middle of the week, then move
east and off the coast by Friday, with cooler drier weather in its
wake.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 925 PM Sunday...

Small cluster of convection over the south and west sections of
Stanly County producing locally heavy rainfall due to the
showers/storms remaining nearly stationary. radar estimates of 2-3
inches nay have fallen southwest of Albemarle between Oakboro and
Locust. Weak convergence along an inverted sfc trough with added
moisture influx of tropical air mass triggered this small area of
convection this evening. Near term model guidance suggest the
moisture influx weakening through the evening hours, so should see
this cluster gradually diminish in coverage/intensity through 03Z.

Otherwise weak high pressure to our north coupled with an expanding
area of high pressure aloft should maintain warm and dry conditions
across the remainder of central NC overnight. Patchy fog will
develop after 06Z, becoming most prominent by 10Z then quickly burn
off by 12Z. Overnight temperatures primarily in the lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 210 PM Sunday...

The forecast looks fairly good for Monday and the eclipse time,
thanks to ridging both sfc and aloft.  While the pattern suggests
dry fair weather, forecast soundings suggest that some mostly-
shallow cu may form as the afternoon progresses, with a notable
increase in H8-H7 moisture west of the Triangle region, while areas
from Raleigh south and east remain drier in that layer.  That would
suggest the greatest coverage of cu clouds west of the Triangle and
lesser cu coverage east, and best sky conditions from Raleigh south
and east. With similar airmass as today, look for afternoon highs in
lower 90s along with heat index readings in the mid to upper 90s.
Lows Monday night 70 to 75.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 100 PM Sunday...

Tue/Tue Night: High pressure will shift offshore the Mid-Atlantic
coast and a cold front will progresses southeast through the Ohio
valley Tue/Tue night as cyclonic flow aloft strengthens in advance
of an upper level low progressing across southern Ontario. As a
result, rich low-level moisture will return to the Carolinas via
southerly return flow and isold convection will be possible invof a
pre-frontal trough in the lee of the Appalachians Tue aft/eve.
Expect above normal highs 90-94F, warmest Sandhills, with lows Tue
night in the lower/mid 70s.

Wed-Thu Night: The aforementioned cold front will progress slowly SE
through NC Wed/Wed night. The front may stall invof the Carolina
coast Wed Night/Thu as cyclonic flow aloft strengthens over the
region, however, high pressure should build southeastward into
central NC Thu night as troughing aloft shifts to the eastern
seaboard. Expect near normal temperatures Wed/Wed night, followed by
below normal temperatures Thu/Thu night. Expect above normal chances
for convection in assoc/w the front Wed/Wed night. Uncertainty
increases w/regard to the position of the stalled front on Thu.
Above normal chances for convection should persist in far E/SE
portions of the state, including portions of the SE Coastal Plain.
Lingering precipitation should exit from NW-SE or W-E Thu night.

Fri-Sun: At this time, expect below normal temperatures and dry
conditions Fri through the upcoming weekend as high pressure builds
eastward from the Great Lakes into New England and a pronounced
surface ridge extends southward into the Carolinas, maintaining a
cool/dry airmass over central portions of the state. -Vincent

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 800 PM Sunday...

VFR conditions expected through much of the TAF period with the
exception of some potential MVFR fog at KRWI and/or KFAY. In
addition a TEMPO group has been included for some 300 foot ceilings
between 1000-1200 UTC for KFAY and KRWI as well. Confidence in
either of these is fairly low as models were split on solutions.

Outlook: Diurnal showers and thunderstorms as well as morning
fog/low stratus return for Tuesday. A cold front will move through
the area Wednesday and settle near the coast on Thursday providing
an opportunity for adverse conditions during this time period before
returning to VFR for the end of the week and into the weekend.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...np
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...np
LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...Ellis



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