-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
610
FXUS62 KRAH 301506
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1106 AM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Sub-tropical high pressure centered south of Bermuda will extend
westward across the South Atlantic states today, then gradually lose
influence as a mid and upper-level trough and surface cold front
settle into the Middle Atlantic and Carolinas Tuesday and Wednesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 1100 AM Monday...

The previous forecast of persistence hot and humid, with isolated/
widely scattered afternoon-evening showers/storms (relative highest
coverage over the Piedmont/wrn Sandhills) remains on track.

A weakening mid/upr-level low over the Southeast in recent days had
edged as far northeast as the nrn GA/SC border on Sunday, with
associated cyclonic flow and influence extending across the wrn half
of NC. However, water vapor satellite data indicate that feature has
since drifted swwd to the s-cntl GA/AL border this morning, while
continuing to weaken. Anticyclonic flow has consequently become
established through the mid/upr-levels throughout cntl NC, which may
further decrease convective coverage in cntl NC relative to Sunday.
Nonetheless, the heat and humidity will contribute to another day
of moderate destabilization and little to no CINH, so there will
remain a 15-30 percent chance of convection, particularly where a
surface trough will support weak convergence over the wrn/srn
Piedmont and wrn Sandhills.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 AM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025/

Yet another day of diurnally showers and thunderstorms is expected
across the region. Similar to previous days, the greatest coverage
is expected to be across the west compared to the east. However,
high resolution models are indicating less coverage across the
eastern half of the forecast area than previous days. Thunderstorms
are likely to continue into the evening across the Triad, then
fizzle out by midnight. Once again, highs should be in the low to
mid 90s, with lows perhaps a degree or two warmer with slowly
increasing high cloud cover in advance of the next system.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 AM Monday...

On Tuesday morning, a cold front will extend from Lake Ontario
southwest into Kentucky and continuing into Texas. Over the last
couple of days, models have slowed the arrival of the front into the
region. While much of the region will still have showers and
thunderstorms on Tuesday, the highest rainfall totals will likely be
delayed to Tuesday night. Considering the delay in the arrival of
precipitation, Tuesday`s high temperatures have come up a degree or
two compared to the previous forecast, but will still range from the
mid 80s to the low 90s. Lows will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

Much of the forecast area remains in a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk
for severe weather on Tuesday, which seems appropriate considering
there would be modest instability, but minimal shear to organize
storms. In addition, if things trend closer to the 00Z run of the
HRRR, an even slower solution, more precipitation would occur
overnight when instability would be further reduced. Will not wait
for the new Day 2 WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook to send out this
discussion, but the Sunday afternoon ERO included much of the
forecast area west of I-95 in a Marginal (level 1 of 4) risk for
excessive rainfall.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 AM Monday...

* Lingering chance of storms and risk of localized flash flooding
  Wednesday.

* Drier for the end of the week with mainly isolated afternoon
  storms.

Showers and storms expected to be ongoing late Tues night may
continue through Wed morning and then increase and intensify Wed
afternoon, especially across the south and east as the effective
front associated with Tue`s storms is forecast to settle through the
area.  The associated upper shortwave trough axis is forecast to
cross the area early Wed, so there should be some downward trend
across the west by early Wed evening given the implied subsidence
behind the trough.  The amount of instability or Wed is still
uncertain since there should be a lot of cloud cover early Wed, so
the main hazard may be localized flash flooding with PW around 2
inches.

Another shortwave passing through New England on Thu will maintain
northwesterly flow across the region Thu/Fri and will ultimately
help push a reinforcing shot of relatively drier air into the area by
Fri. In a drier deep layer airmass, we should see mainly isolated
storms each day, primarily confined to the seabreeze or higher
terrain.  Mid-level ridging is expected to build across the Deep
South toward the Mid-Atlantic region over the weekend, which should
result in continued relatively low POPs and temps climbing back
above normal into the low to mid 90s.  One caveat is that
aforementioned cold front is forecast across northern FL, and models
have signaled a chance a low developing along the front.  Models
have been split on whether that low would develop over the northeast
Gulf or off the Florida east coast.  No local impacts are evident in
current model guidance, but there could be some enhancement of POPs
over the east by Sun.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 635 AM Monday...

24 hour TAF period: Coverage of diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms should be slightly less than the last few days, but
still high enough to warrant a PROB30 group at INT/GSO where the
chances for precipitation are the highest. It also appears that all
terminals will have the potential for gusts around 15 kt in the
afternoon, with the wind remaining slightly elevated overnight.

Outlook: More widespread coverage of storms is expected Tuesday and
Wednesday as a front slowly moves into the area. The highest chance
for restrictions will come Tuesday night with IFR/LIFR ceilings
possible. The bulk of showers/storms should have moved through by
Wednesday night, although an isolated showers/storm cannot be ruled
out at FAY/RWI Wednesday night and Thursday. After that, dry VFR
conditions are predicted.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS/Green
SHORT TERM...Green
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...Green