Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 061852 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 150 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND SETTLE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A SUBSTANTIAL WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 910 AM FRIDAY... CANCELED ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE AS ONLY ISOLATED SPOTS OF BLACK ICE BEING REPORTED. A NARROW BAND OF STRATOCU EDGING SLOWLY WEST ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AT MID MORNING PRODUCING A FEW LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES AS OBSERVED AT GSO/PTI AIRPORT SHORTLY AFTER 13Z. THIS BAND OF CLOUDINESS WILL GRADUALLY DISSOLVE AS IT CONTINUES TO DRIFT WEST- SW. OTHERWISE...ASIDE FROM PATCHES OF HIGH CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET OVER OUR SE COUNTIES...EXPECT SUNNY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOW LEVEL CAA WILL LIMIT NORMAL DIURNAL TEMP RECOVERY TODAY. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO NEAR FREEZING OVER THE NORTH BY MID DAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. CURRENT HIGH TEMPS FORECAST APPEARS ON TARGET...RANGING FROM THE MID 30S NE TO THE LOWER 40S SW. TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET INTO THE 20S PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPS UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 20 NE AND LOW-MID 20S SOUTH AND WEST. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY... MODERATION IN A GRADUAL SENSE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS RETURN TO CLOSER TO NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 150 PM FRIDAY... FOR SUN THROUGH MON: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRETCH ACROSS NC SUN/SUN NIGHT... SPLIT BY A WEAK LEE TROUGH HOLDING OVER OUR WESTERN SECTIONS. EXPECT A CONTINUED SLOW INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AS ENERGY EMANATING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LOW SPREADS ENE TOWARD THE SRN APPALACHIANS... ESPECIALLY LATE SUNDAY THROUGH SUN NIGHT. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE BRIEFLY STRENGTHENED OVER OUR NORTHWEST SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING BY PASSING UPPER DIVERGENCE... IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 140+ KT WESTERLY JET CROSSING THE MIDATLANTIC REGION... AND THIS MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTH IN THE LATE SUN NIGHT/MON TIME FRAME. BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW FAIRLY DRY AIR THROUGH THE LOWEST 6KFT OR SO... SUGGESTING THAT THE CHANCE OF ANYTHING MEASURABLE WILL BE PRETTY LOW... AND THIS IS MIRRORED BY VERY LOW SREF PRECIP PROBABILITIES. WILL GO WITH NO MORE THAN A MENTION OF SPRINKLES. THE GFS/ECMWF STRIVE TO SPREAD LIGHT PRECIP INTO THE FAR SRN CWA LATE MON... BUT WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING HIGH CLOUD BASES AND A DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER AS THE ESE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS ERRATIC AND LIGHT... AND WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED EAST OF THE BAHAMAS BUILDING INTO THE CAROLINAS... WILL DELAY POPS UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE DAY. THICKNESSES WILL BE TRENDING UPWARD... PEAKING AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES EACH DAY... BUT THE CLOUDINESS SHOULD TAKE THE EDGE OFF MAXES AND TIGHTEN UP THE DIURNAL RANGE A BIT. HIGHS BOTH SUN/MON IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. LOWS SUN NIGHT UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. FOR MON NIGHT THROUGH FRI: AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE... AND OVERALL FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPS. MID LEVEL TROUGHING WITH A SLIGHT POSITIVE TILT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS DOWN TO BAJA WILL ATTEMPT TO SHIFT EASTWARD NEXT WEEK. ENERGY DROPPING INTO ITS BASE WILL DELAY ITS MOVEMENT... AS WILL THE STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO MIDWEEK. BUT THE MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE GULF AND SOUTHEAST STATES WILL BACK FROM WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY... DRAWING MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA ALONG WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL DPVA (WITH AN APPROACHING WEAK WAVE) AND STRENGTHENING ATLANTIC-SOURCE LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE ESE. FOLLOWING MODEL CONSENSUS... WILL SPREAD GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE CWA FROM THE SSW MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE... TAPERING DOWN (BUT NOT TO ZERO) LATE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS A WEAK VORTICITY CLUSTER SHIFTS TO OUR NORTHEAST... LEAVING US IN A RELATIVE LULL. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER IN THE DETAILS BY MIDWEEK BUT THEY SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER PASSING WEAK WAVE ALONG WITH FLATTENING FLOW ALOFT AND A SHOT OF UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH ANOTHER JET CORE OVER THE MIDATLANTIC WILL NECESSITATE ANOTHER UPTICK IN POPS FOR WED. THE CORRESPONDING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NNW... SO WILL TAKE POPS BACK DOWN TO BELOW CLIMATOLOGY WED NIGHT/THU. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER TX/NRN MEX TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT BY FRI WITH ITS AXIS SWINGING UP INTO THE GULF COAST... AND AS THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE SPREADS TOWARD NC WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO NOSE IN FROM THE NORTH... THE POTENTIAL FOR AN OVERRUNNING WEDGE EVENT IN CENTRAL NC WILL BE INCREASING BY FRI... AND WILL TREND POPS BACK UP TO CHANCE. THICKNESSES AND THE GENERAL PATTERN SUPPORT TEMPS WITHIN A CATEGORY OR SO OF NORMAL... PERHAPS A BIT ABOVE NORMAL MON NIGHT TO WED AND A BIT BELOW NORMAL WED NIGHT TO FRI. -GIH
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&& .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 1150 AM FRIDAY... THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND PERSISTING INTO MONDAY. AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF SUB VFR CEILINGS BY MONDAY NIGHT AND MORE SO TUESDAY WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASING BY TUESDAY. ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. $$ SYNOPSIS...WSS NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...BADGETT LONG TERM...HARTFIELD AVIATION...WSS

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