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000
FXUS62 KRAH 221838
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
240 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...

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.SYNOPSIS...An upper level trof will linger along the Coastal
Plain today, with light northerly flow at the surface. This pattern
will last through the weekend, with some modestly drier air edging
into central NC later Saturday as high pressure builds down the
Atlantic coast.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 240 PM Friday...

Weak high pressure will persist over the area tonight and the upper
trof will edge nearer the coast. The diurnal cumulus field will
dissipate prior to sunset leaving us with clear skies overnight.
Conditions will be conducive to some patchy fog in the east where
areas from Rocky Mount to Goldsboro received pretty good shower
coverage on Thursday. Mins will be close to persistence from this
morning as clear and calm conditions allow temps to radiate to the
dew points in the low and mid 60s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 240 PM Friday...

The upper ridge building to our NW is expected to edge east then
down the Atlantic coast Saturday into Saturday night. Will be warm
and dry tomorrow with highs similar to today...85-90. A modest surge
of reinforcing dry air is expected tomorrow night as the ridging
surges south, with mins falling a couple of degrees, from 60 to 65.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 240 PM Friday...

The main weather story for the long term is the subtle westward
shift in the models and official NHC track regarding Maria for the
middle of next week.  Despite this westward shift, the system is
still forecast to be far enough to our east to proclude any
significant impacts on our weather other than a uptick in cloudiness
across our eastern zones, and an uptick the breeze, from late
Tuesday through early Thursday.  Of course that can change if the
westward trend continues. In fact, if the forecast track shifts much
more westward with subsequent runs, then we`ll have to do a notable
increase in our PoPs and wind; but for now, looks like the weather
with Maria should stay mostly to our east.

Otherwise, the rest of the long term period is dry with high
pressure influencing our weather before Maria approach, then dry
again in the wake of Maria as the storm moves northeastward away
from the Mid-Atlantic coast.  Above normal temps continue in the
long term.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 100 PM Friday...

24 Hour TAF Period: VFR conditions are expected with light and
variable winds. Exception will be persistent late night fog and low
stratus in the RWI area in the 08-13Z time range.

Outlook Sat-Wed: Patchy fog will be possible each morning, mainly at
RWI and FAY, with VFR conditions as high pressure centered north of
our region lingers through early next week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...mlm
NEAR TERM...mlm
SHORT TERM...mlm
LONG TERM...nmp
AVIATION...mlm