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000
FXUS62 KRAH 180216
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1015 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
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UNSEASONABLY STRONG...POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT... THEN LINGER THROUGH
FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT...THEN MEANDER ALONG THE SOUTHEAST US COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 1015 PM THURSDAY...

...WILL CANCEL FROST ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWS A DENSE MASS OF HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SW IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ROBUST CONVECTION
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE MEANTIME...DEWPOINTS HAVE
BEEN STEADILY RISING WITHIN THE NELY MARITIME FETCH COMING OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST...ON TRACK TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS
THE NW PIEDMONT.

ITS PRETTY HARD TO IGNORE THESE OVERWHELMING SATELLITE/
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS WITH THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND INCREASE IN
BL DEWPOINTS SUGGESTING WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED AND A DECREASED THREAT OF FROST AND A DECREASING
THREAT OF FROST. WILL WARM UP LOWS TONIGHT...RANGING FROM UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S NORTHERN PIEDMONT TO MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH. WILL
CANCEL FROST ADVISORY.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1250 PM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND
COOL FRIDAY WITH HIGHS 60-65... THEN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MODELS ARE NOW COMING IN LINE TO DELIVER
ANOTHER CHILLY RAINY SYSTEM TO OUR REGION BEGINNING LATER FRIDAY
INTO A PART OF SATURDAY... AS THE CUT OFF LOW IS FORECAST TO COME
CLOSER TO THE REGION... WITH A SURFACE WAVE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
TRACK NEAR THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WE WILL LIKELY HAVE
A DAY IN THE 40S/50S AGAIN WITH RAIN SATURDAY WITH THE NE FLOW...
CLOUDS AND RAIN. SATURDAY NIGHT... LINGERING CLOUDINESS AND RAIN
CHANCES... BUT THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1250 PM THURSDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO FINALLY DRIFT WELL OFF THE SE
US COAST SUNDAY. CLOUDINESS AND THE CHANCE OF SOME LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN MAY PERSIST INTO SUNDAY MORNING... ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN. OTHERWISE... THE NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE REAR OF THE
DEPARTING MID/UPPER LOW WITH COOL TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY EXPECTED TO
MODIFY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. HIGHS
SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. HIGHS MONDAY WILL
MODERATE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. LOWS WILL ALSO MODERATE INTO THE
50S BY MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... A CONTINUED WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE
REGION. HIGHS WILL REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 TUESDAY.
HOWEVER... A WEAK "BACKDOOR" COLD FRONT MAY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. IT APPEARS THAT MOISTURE
WILL BE GREATLY LIMITED AS THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WILL BE CUT OFF.
HIGHS MAY BACK OFF A FEW DEGREES IF THE BOUNDARY DOES INDEED SLIP
SOUTHWARD AS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY... READINGS WILL WARM
AGAIN BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S AS THE FRONT RETURNS BACK NORTH AND
THE MID/UPPER RIDGING REMAINS OVER OUR REGION THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 730 PM THURSDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF LOW STRATUS AROUND DAYBREAK ON
FRIDAY ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH...AS NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ADVECT IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC...POSSIBLY BRIEFLY CREATING SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS. IF LOW STRATUS DOES FORM...IT WILL MIX OUT/LIFT
RATHER QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING...THUS RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS.
CLOUDINESS WILL THEN INCREASE AND LOWER THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY
AS A LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR
RANGE. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE AFTER 18Z
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH...BUT MODELS DISAGREE ABOUT THE TIMING SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK: A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SLOWLY UP THE EAST COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN PRECIP SPREADING INTO THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY THE END
THE WEEKEND AND THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
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&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NONE.
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&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT/MWS
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...BADGETT/BSD
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...KRD/JET