Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 141914 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 310 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AS A 1028MB HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MUCH DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR HAS FILTERED INTO THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE 50S TODAY. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ATOP THE POST- FRONTAL AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND WEVE SEEN A FEW VERY ISOLATED AND VERY LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST AT TIMES TODAY. THE MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOSTLY AROUND THE 300K LEVEL...WILL REMAIN SHALLOW OVERNIGHT AS DRYING ABOVE 700MB CONTINUES. THUS...PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT LIKELY WITH NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE FOR MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. WITH OVERCAST EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 310 PM SUNDAY... ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES WILL INDUCE WEAK HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS AND DRAW THE FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR SOUTH BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND WITH DEWPOINTS RISING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW CLOUDS SCATTERING OVER BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THOUGH HIGHS CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM SOUTHWEST SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE AREA FAIRLY CLOUDY. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS TEMPS RECOVERING INTO TLOWER 80S...WHICH MAY STILL BE A BIT TOO WARM GIVEN THE CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. THE INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS SHOULD LEAD TO A WEAK INSTABILITY AXIS DEVELOPING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...BUT THE RETURN OF BETTER DEEP MOISTURE AND PW OVER 1.5 INCHES IS BRIEF MONDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THUS... A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT THE PROSPECTS OF DEEP CONVECTION LOOK LIMITED. WILL SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE MONDAY AFTERNOON INCREASING TO A CHANCE MONDAY EVENING...THEN DECREASING LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 255 PM SUNDAY... THE UPPER AIR PATTERN DURING THE LONG TERM WILL FEATURE AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH THE TROUGH AXIS PERSISTING NEAR THE COASTLINE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INITIALLY AND THEN REINFORCED WITH A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE WEEK...WILL RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME A STATIONARY FRONT ORIENTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WILL PERSIST AND EXTEND FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS FL/GA AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR A COOLER THAN AVERAGE PERIOD WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS BUT WITH LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND AMOUNTS. SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS INCLUDE A BRIEF PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY RESULTING FROM SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW...SUNSHINE AND DEEPER MIXING WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. A DISTURBANCE IN THE DEVELOPING NW FLOW ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC. BEYOND THAT...GENERALLY DRY AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY TO OCCASIONALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH LOWS INT THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. -BLAES && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 155 PM SUNDAY... HIGH PRESSURE AND A NORTHEAST WIND WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE TO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTENING THIS EVENING SHOULD CREATE MVFR CEILINGS...MOSTLY 2000- 3000 FT...ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC. SOME 1000-2000 FT CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FROM KFAY TO KRWI...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW. SOME TERMINALS MAY ALSO SEE PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES...WHICH MAY TEMPORARILY REDUCE VSBYS. A GRADUAL LIFTING OF CEILINGS SHOULD COMMENCE AFTER 14Z ON MONDAY. OUTLOOK...LOW CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...VINCENT NEAR TERM...BLS SHORT TERM...BLS LONG TERM...BLAES AVIATION...BLS

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