Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 290557 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 157 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY... MOVING OFFSHORE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 950 PM SATURDAY... SO FAR THIS EVENING...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT AND WINDS ARE STARTING TO DIMINISH BUT STILL REMAIN 5-10 KTS IN SOME PLACES. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO COME DOWN FURTHER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MAY BE WHY IF ANYTHING WE ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE EXPECTED HOURLY TEMPERATURE CURVE AT THIS TIME BUT NOT BY MUCH. GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE CWA RIGHT NOW WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 10-15 DEGREE RANGE EXCEP IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST WHERE 30 DEGREE DEWPOINTS LINGER IN THE MORE MOIST AIRMASS. THE COMBINATION OF A VERY DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMBINED WITH COLD HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL ALLOW FOR SOME VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND THEN FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL HELP LOWS DROP TO NEAR RECORDS AS LOW TO MID 20S ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL NC INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS IS ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HERE IN THE RALEIGH OFFICE WE HAVE STARTED OUR FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM FOR THE SPRING FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA AND THUS HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR COUNTIES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 64 FROM 2 AM UNTIL 10 AM ON SUNDAY MORNING. THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM WILL BEGIN FOR NORTHERN COUNTIES ON APRIL 5. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND SETTLE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY EVENING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE DAY BUT BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY BY EVENING. THIS WILL HELP TO BEGIN THE TEMPERATURE TURNAROUND AND THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF INSOLATION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BUT STILL A COOL DAY EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S NORTH TO SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 245 PM SATURDAY... SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL RACE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN CENTRAL US ON SUNDAY...WHERE IT WILL GET OVERTAKEN BY AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIVING SOUTHWARD FROM ONTARIO AND MANITOBA. THE PHASED MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. WHILE CUT-OFF FROM GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE...SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING JUST ENOUGH OF ITS OWN PACIFIC MOISTURE WITH IT TO SUPPORT SLIGHT/SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY ON MONDAY. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN NW-SE CLEARING LATE MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. BROKEN/OVERCAST CLOUD COVER WILL TEMPER LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT... RANGING FROM MID 30S TO AROUND 40...COOLEST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHERE THICKER CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LAST TO ARRIVE. TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST CLOUDS ERODE...WITH A SLOW RISE THROUGH MIDDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST...BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE BY THE AFTERNOON GIVEN STRONG 20-25KT DOWN SLOPE FLOW COMPONENT. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S. .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 255 PM SATURDAY... TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: ON THE HEELS OF THE MONDAY SYSTEM...A LOW AMPLITUDE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL QUICKLY SWING THROUGH THE MID- ATLANTIC REGION LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY...PUSHING A DRY BACK- DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS...PERHAPS A TOUCH COOLER ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC REGION WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE IN ADVANCE OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN US. CURRENTLY MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE HAVING ISSUES WITH RESOLVING THE DETAILS OF THE SYSTEM...BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SOME WAA SHOWERS SOMETIME DURING THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON RAIN CHANCES...BUT GENERALLY WARMER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SWLY FLOW. HIGHS IN THE 70S. LOWS IN THE 50S. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 155 AM SUNDAY... VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD WITH NORTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE 10KT OR LESS...WITH A FEW BRIEF GUSTS IN THE MID TEENS POSSIBLE LATE TODAY AND MAINLY TOWARD THE TRIAD. BEYOND THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD...A BAND OF SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTHWEST VERY LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WHILE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS IS POSSIBLE WITH THE BAND OF SHOWERS...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE PREDOMINANT CEILING TYPE WITH THE BAND OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE LOW MVFR. CEILINGS IMPROVE QUICKLY TO VFR AGAIN WEST-TO-EAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY BEHIND THE BAND OF SHOWERS. THEREAFTER...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE...WITH A CURRENT LOW PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH A ANOTHER COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AND A LITTLE BETTER PROBABILITY OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE INCREASES. && .CLIMATE... RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 29TH ARE LISTED BELOW. RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURE GSO 20-1966 RDU 20-1966 FAY 24-1982 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ028-042- 043-073>078-083>086-088-089. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJF NEAR TERM...ELLIS SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...CBL AVIATION...DJF CLIMATE...RAH

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