-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KRAH 232356
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
756 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT
AND MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM WEDNESDAY...

THROUGH TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL
DECREASE AND SHIFT TO NORTH AND NORTHEAST...WITH CONTINUED CLEAR
SKIES. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE VA
BORDER...TO LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE TEMPERATURE
CRITERIA FOR A FROST ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY LOWER THAN THE FORECAST
LOWS...THUS WILL NOT ISSUE ONE AT THIS POINT...HOWEVER THE CHANCE
FOR SOME VERY ISOLATED PATCHES OF FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT
COMPLETELY.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: THURSDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE DAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VEERING AROUND FROM
NE TO SE DURING THE DAY...THEN TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. A WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT...
INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND CLOUD COVER. ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL COME ON FRIDAY...THE MODELS HAVE SPED UP A BIT BRINGING
RAIN INTO THE AREA...SO WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE
UPPER 60S NORTH/NORTHEAST TO MID 70S SW. WITH THE ADVANCING WARM
FRONT ADVECTING WARM AIR INTO THE REGION...OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE MID 40S NE TO LOW
50S SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...

A DEAMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH THE ASSOCIATED TRAILING WEAK COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
AS A RESULT...PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...MOST NOTABLY
BEING THE STRENGTH/TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY...WHICH WILL HAVE
IMPLICATIONS ON OUR PRECIP AND SUBSEQUENT SEVERE THREAT. THE GFS
MOVES THE WEAK ENERGY ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE DAY...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS STRONGER/DEEPER WITH THIS FEATURE AND THEREFORE SOMEWHAT
SLOWER IN ITS PROGRESSION (WITH THE NAM BEING IN THE MIDDLE). WITH
THE EARLIER ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE (PER GFS)...SHOWERS SHOULD BE
ONGOING DURING THE MORNING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT...
THUS LIMITING THE AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION. IN ADDITION...OUR AREA
WOULD BE ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE BEFORE THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. ALL OF THIS WOULD LEAD TO A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. HOWEVER...WITH THE SLOWER PROGRESSION...FEATURES COULD LINE
UP MORE FAVORABLY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NEVERTHELESS...EVEN THE GFS INDICATES SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY (MOSTLY ACROSS THE EAST) AS TEMPS RISE TO NEAR
80 DEGREES AND THEREFORE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT
BRINGING OUR PRECIP TO AN END. MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RANGE
FROM THE LOW 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 50S FURTHER SOUTH
AND EAST. ANOTHER REINFORCING BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY...BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...WITH THE MAIN EFFECT BEING SOME DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN QUIET WEATHER
FOR CENTRAL NC...WITH TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE HIGH
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG SYSTEM
THAT WILL LIKELY BE A BIG SEVERE WEATHER MAKER FOR THE CENTRAL CONUS
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL A LOT TO BE
WORKED OUT WITH REGARD TO THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...THEREFORE
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH. OVERALL THIS CUTOFF LOW WILL
SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY EAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH OUR
BEST PRECIP CHANCES LOOKING TO BE ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME
OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL BEGIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...BUT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE
AMOUNT/TIMING OF CLOUDS/PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 750 PM WEDNESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD (HIGH CONFIDENCE)... AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. THUS... EXPECT WINDS
WILL DECREASE WITH SUNSET THIS EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AND CONTINUE SO THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS
CENTRAL NC.

LOOKING AHEAD: THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL
BE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...LASTING INTO THE DAY
FRIDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY ALONG AND IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT... WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BACK TO VFR
BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS
AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE WEEKEND. UNSETTLED WEATHER
AND POSSIBLY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM... KRD
AVIATION...BSD/KC