Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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510 FXUS62 KRAH 230710 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 310 AM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will pass by to our northwest, crossing the central Appalachians Friday night into Saturday morning, before moving off the Mid Atlantic coast. This will drag a trailing cold front through our area late Saturday through Saturday night. High pressure will follow bringing cooler and drier air into our region for next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 310 AM EDT Friday... Central NC is no longer in a Marginal Risk of severe storms this afternoon and evening, only general thunderstorms expected. A large plume of deep tropical moisture with PW`s of 2.2+ inches and a southerly 40kt h85 jet, a large area of showers with locally heavy rain is expected to move NE across western and northern NC through 12z/today. Since the air mass is increasingly tropical with dew points well into the 70s and PW`s 2+ inches, some locally heavy rain with rainfall of 1+ will likely occur. It appears that the heaviest rain should affect the Foothills from HKY to MWK, but may also affect parts of the NW side of the Triad including Winston-Salem. We will have categorical POP in the NW, ranging to 30 POP in the SE through 12z. Very little lightning was noted with this large area of heavy showers due to the low topped convection in the tropical air mass. However, there was some in cloud lightning noted near HKY to near Statesville. We will include a chance of thunderstorms in the Triad, too. Lows 68-73 NW to SE. Later today, the plume of deep moisture and lift will move north of the region placing central NC in the warm and drier sector. SW winds are expected to increase to between 15-25 mph during the afternoon. Mixing and drying from aloft will allow for increasing sunshine. Highs should reach the mid 80s NW and 90-95 in the south and southeast. Only widely scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening due to the lack of a significant trigger. Tonight, as the remnant circulation of Cindy passes well to our NW and N from the OH river NE into the MD/PA Appalachians - the trailing surface trough will move east into the NC Mountains overnight. Convection along the trough or outflow boundaries may sustain the track across the Mountains in a much weakened form. We will carry some low POP in the western Piedmont for this potential. Otherwise, the SSW low level winds at 15-20 mph and dew points in the 70s suggest a very warm and humid night in the east. Lows in general will be in the 70s with partly cloudy skies (mostly cloudy NW). && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 310 AM EDT Friday... There remains a marginal risk of a few damaging wind gusts in the south and east part of central NC Saturday afternoon and evening. The trailing surface trough will move into eastern and southeastern NC Saturday afternoon and evening, then stall near the SE Coastal Plain Saturday night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected mid-day in the central Piedmont, with upscale development during the afternoon - mainly south and east of Raleigh. PW`s of 2 inches, very high dew points in the 70s, and heating into the upper 80s to lower 90s will lead to some very heavy showers and possibly a few strong to locally severe storms across the Sandhills and Coastal Plain mainly between 200 PM lingering well into the evening. 1 to 2 inches of rain should drench these areas. POP of 20 in the NW, 30-40 central and 70+ will be forecast in the FAY to GSB to RWI areas. Showers will linger in the SE overnight, with partly to mostly cloudy skies elsewhere in the rear of the surface trough. Lows in the 60s NW and lower 70s SE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 323 PM EDT Thursday... The lower/mid tropospheric remnants of Tropical Storm Cindy are forecast to become increasingly sheared and will accelerate NEWD through the southern Mid-Atlantic States early Saturday as it gets picked by the westerlies ahead of the northern stream trough digging into the Central US. With the remnant circulation/PV anomaly associated with Cindy expected to pass north, so will the heavy rain/flooding threat, with QPF amounts having decreased significantly across the area. Instead, a concentrated area of warm moist advection, along the leading edge of a H8 50kt LLJ, will fuel a band of showers and thunderstorms into western NC, that will weaken as they progress eastward into the central and eastern Saturday morning as the better support aloft lifts off to the northeast. Convective re-development is then expected during the afternoon and evening, as the lead cold front moves into the area, before stalling near the coast Saturday night into Sunday. Scattered in the west, to possibly numerous showers and storms in the east are possible Saturday afternoon, with a few strong to severe storms possible in the east. Additionally, with the front forecast to stall out, some localized/isolated flooding is possible as storms train along the stationary boundary. A stronger disturbance aloft in the cyclonic flow across the eastern half of the country is expected to approach and move across the area early next week, along with an associated cold front. This will give us another chance for some showers and storms on Monday into Monday night, along with a push of drier and cooler air, with highs by Tuesday possibly struggling to reach 80 across the Piedmont and some low temps dropping into the mid to upper 50s by Wednesday morning. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 155 AM Friday... Showers with IFR conditions expected at KGSO and KINT over to KRDU through 12z/today, with IFR CIGS at KFAY and KRWI. Showers will end from the SW between 09z-12z but IFR conditions will linger through 15z or so. MVFR CIGS will become VFR between 18z and 21z with a gusty SW wind at 15-25kt. Looking beyond 00z Sat (Fri evening), scattered showers and thunderstorms with a gusty SW wind at 15-25kt are expected Fri evening, lasting into Sat morning, with prevailing sub-VFR conditions late Fri night through daybreak Sat. Generally VFR conditions will return Saturday; however, MVFR conditions with scattered showers and storms are expected from KRDU eastward Saturday afternoon and evening. Then a return to VFR conditions are forecast Saturday night through early next week with high pressure. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...Badgett SHORT TERM...Badgett LONG TERM...CBL/BSD AVIATION...Badgett

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