


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --692 FXUS62 KRAH 130626 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 225 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS... An outflow-reinforeced, backdoor front will dissipate over eastern and central VA and NC through Monday. Sub-tropical high pressure will otherwise extend from near Bermuda to the Carolinas throughout the upcoming week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 110 PM Saturday... * Marginal risk of isolated damaging winds into this evening for areas mainly west of US-1 * Excessive rainfall possible nearly anywhere this evening, but widespread flooding potential not expected Temperatures should continue to climb into the late afternoon hours with highs topping out in the low to middle 90s. A few locales across portions of the Triangle and Sandhills could briefly reach heat indices of 104-105, but this is not expected to be prolonged. As for storm chances into this evening, model guidance and ensemble data suggest two primary focus areas, one over the eastern part of the state, and a second across the mountains. The former may be tied to a developing sea-breeze pushing inland with resultant outflows. The latter across the mountains appears tied to a weak surface trough situated in western NC. Both of these areas will be the focus for convergence for storm development. It would appear storms across the mountains will be more widespread, with some of those reaching the Triad and western Piedmont this evening, dying off by late evening due to loss of heating. Regardless, resultant outflows from either forcing areas could produce an isolated or scattered storm or two over central NC into late evening with modest buoyancy over 2000 J/kg. Overall coverage appears limited. Shear is weak, but mesoanalysis and point forecast soundings suggest high DCAPE over 1000 J/kg, supportive of wet microbursts and resultant damaging winds, especially west of US-1. While widespread flooding potential is not expected, rain that falls over still saturated soils, mainly in the Piedmont, will be favorable for isolated flash flooding. After any storms die out later this evening, some patchy fog is possible over areas that saw rain, with lows in the low/mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...-- Changed Discussion --As of 225 AM Sunday... A weak surface trough will move across the area Monday resulting in scattered to numerous showers and storms. The best chance for storms will be in the afternoon and continuing through much of the evening and some of the overnight hours. Microbursts with damaging wind gusts could be possible within these storms. PW values will be above average around 2 which will continue the threat for heavy rain and flash flooding. WPC has all of Central NC in a marginal threat for Flash Flooding Monday. While SPC has not introduced any threat above general thunderstorms yet, MLCAPE values of 1500 to 2200 J/kg could warrant a few localized severe storms. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s with one more day oh heat indices in the low 100s across the Triangle region. Lows overnight will be in the low to mid 70s.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --As of 225 AM Sunday... Tuesday will be similar to Monday, with the trough exiting the area and a weak cold front dipping down into the area. A few isolated morning showers will turn into numerous to widespread storms, again some could be severe. WPC has all of Central NC in a marginal risk for Flash Flooding as some storms could be slow moving and produce heavy rain at times. The front is expected fizzle out west of the area as weak high pressure tries to build in mid week. Afternoon diurnally driven scattered showers and storms will be possible each afternoon and early evening through the rest of the forecast period. Over the weekend another trough develops thus, expect increased precip chances Friday- Sunday especially in the afternoon and evening hours. Temperatures in the long term will range in the upper upper 80s to low 90s with lows in the low to mid 70s.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 215 AM Sunday... A convective outflow-reinforced, backdoor front, now stretching in an arc from near LYH to RDU to EWN ,will focus areas of fog and low stratus on its cool side this morning (ie. from nern NC through cntl and ern VA), including primarily at RWI. Some may reach, briefly, as far wwd as RDU around 12Z. Scattered aft-eve convection with heavy rain, strong downburst wind, and brief flight restrictions can otherwise be expected by 18-20Z. Outlook: Areas of morning stratus and fog will be favored along and on the cool side of a backdoor front that will dissipate over ern and cntl NC and VA through Mon. Sub-tropical high pressure over the western and swrn N. Atlantic will otherwise favor a typical summertime regime of scattered aft-eve convection and patchy fog/stratus, with the latter likely to shift from the Coastal Plain (ie. RWI and FAY) early week to the wrn Piedmont and Foothills (ie. GSO/INT) by mid-week. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...Kren SHORT TERM...CA LONG TERM...CA AVIATION...MWS