Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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747 FXUS62 KRAH 161436 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1035 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move east across the region this morning and reach the coast by late this afternoon. Cool high pressure will build into the region tonight and Tuesday and persist into the first part of the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1035 AM Monday... Surface cold front and accompanying 50 to 75 mile wide band of showers, currently advancing east through the Triangle and central parts of the state will continue to push east through the remainder of the morning and into the early afternoon. The band will result in a 3 to 4 window of mostly light rain/shower activity with rainfall amounts averaging between 0.10-.20", with isolated higher amounts of near 0.50" within the heavier/more convective elements. Expect occasional post-frontal wind gusts from the north at 10 to 15 MPH with gusts up to 20 to 25 MPH behind the front. Areas along and east of the Triangle have already realized their daytime highs with temperatures falling or holding in the 60s behind the front. In the Triad, post-frontal clearing later this afternoon will allow temperatures to rebound a bit, warming back up into the low to mid 60s. Cold advection will force temperatures down well into the 40s tonight. A stirring north to northeast wind tonight will keep temperatures from bottoming out. Lows will range from 40 in some of the colder spots across the interior Piedmont to the mid 40s southeast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 AM Monday... The upper-level trough axis pushes east of central NC Tuesday morning with increasing heights on Tuesday night. Cool high pressure builds into region on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Mainly clear skies are expected with perhaps some cirrus clouds, mainly in east Tuesday morning. High temperatures will range in 63 to 69 range, generally about 5 degrees below normal. Lows Tuesday night will be chilly as good radiational cooling conditions and a chilly air mass will result in lows in the upper 30s to around 40 although some of the cooler locations across the Piedmont could have lows in the mid 30s and perhaps some patchy frost. Latest NAM MET guidance provides lows of 39/37/34/33 at Greensboro/Raleigh/Burlington/Roxboro respectively while the GFS MAV and EC MOS are several degrees milder. May include a mention of isolated frost across the Piedmont in the HWO for Wednesday morning. -Blaes && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300 AM Monday... The long term forecast is on track. Dry high pressure will remain entrenched across the region throughout the long term forecast period. Seasonably cool temperatures with lows mainly in the 40s and highs near 70 will gradually warm through the week with lows reaching the 50s and highs in the upper 70s on Sunday. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 1035 AM Monday... Expect predominately MVFR ceilings with brief periods of IFR ceilings in the frontal rain/shower band as it moves east-southeast through the area through 18z. Strong post-frontal dry air advection will quickly scour out any sub-VFR ceilings within a 2 to 3 hour window immediately behind the front. Winds will become northerly at around 12kts with gusts of 20 kts behind the front with a few gusts as high as 25kts. Conditions will improve to VFR between 13-15Z in the Triad and 16-20Z in the Triangle, Sandhills and Coastal Plain. Northeast winds of 8 to 12kts with mainly clear skies are expected this evening. Looking beyond the 24 hour TAF period...surface high pressure will build into the region tonight and Tuesday and persist through the end of the work week resulting in fair weather and VFR conditions. -Blaes
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BLAES NEAR TERM...CBL/BLAES SHORT TERM...BLAES LONG TERM...NRR AVIATION...CBL/BLAES is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.