Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 300646 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 245 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Tropical Depression Eight will approach the Outer Banks of North Carolina later today or tonight, before lifting northeastward into the Atlantic Wednesday. A cold front will approach from the northwest Wednesday, then push southeastward through North Carolina on Thursday. Cool high pressure will start to build into the area from the north Thursday night and Friday, as what is now Tropical Depression Nine tracks northeast off the Southeast coast. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 950 PM Monday... TD 8 continued to be located about 150 miles SE of Cape Hatteras moving slowly NW this evening. However, little if any strengthening has been noted per the latest Intermediate Advisory issued at 800 PM by the NHC. Otherwise, the mean flow around the mid level low located off of the GA coast and high pressure to our north continued to be from the NE. A low level dew point boundary was pinned down in the SE Coastal Plain with higher pressures and dry air inland. The area of showers and a few thunderstorms that tracked SW across the SE Coastal Plain again this afternoon has dissipated. Only a few clouds lingered in the wake of these showers in the SE, with mainly partly cloudy to mostly clear skies elsewhere. With the dew points lower or drier tonight by 2-5 degrees compared to those of 24 hours ago, especially over the Piedmont, we may see more lows in the 60s over the northern Piedmont by daybreak. Otherwise, expect partly cloudy to mostly clear skies. Lows 62-72. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 135 PM Monday... Moisture will increase over central NC on Tuesday as an E/NE onshore flow expands westward across the state, with PWAT values rising in comparison to today as , the shear axis extending N/NNW into the area (from a stalled upper level low offshore the GA/FL coast) today is expected to shift W/SW into western NC, upstate SC and northern GA. As a result, forcing will largely be absent Tue/Tue night. In fact, subsidence is likely to be present over portions of central/ eastern NC on the western periphery of TD #8 Tue aft/eve (progged to be a marginal tropical storm by then) as it approaches the NC OBX. With the above in mind, will indicate a dry forecast over central NC Tue/Tue night, with the best chance for precip along the Carolina/ Southeast coast. Expect partly cloudy skies with highs in the upper 80s to near 90F. Lows Wed in the upper 60s to lower 70s. -Vincent && .LONG TERM /Thursday through Monday/... As of 245 AM Tuesday... Thu/Thu night: Precip concerns for NC Thu/Thu night include a low pressure area projected by some models to be just off the southern NC coast early Fri, as well as the cold front approaching from the NW, driven by a digging northern stream trough swinging through the St. Lawrence valley and Northeast states. The former feature, if it occurs, is likely to impact only our far SE sections (where PW will be higher) early in the day, while the latter should bring a broken band of showers and a few storms across the entire CWA later in the day and into the evening, a result of marginal instability and deep layer shear, upper divergence in the right entrance region of the jet extending from northern VA to the Canadian maritimes, and low level mass convergence and moisture pooling ahead of the front. But coverage should be limited somewhat by the preceding low level downslope component to the low level flow. Will keep a pop in the far SE early, then retain a trend up to good chance pops Thu afternoon, trending down in the late evening and overnight from NW to SE. Highs 87-92 on the last day of above-normal temps prior to frontal passage. Lows 65-70. Fri-Mon: The circulation around what is now TD9 may pull a few tropical showers into our far SE Fri as it tracks toward the NE off the SC/NC coast, along with enhanced surface winds and gusts from the northeast. But otherwise our weather heading into the weekend will be largely driven by the cool high pressure building in from the north, pulling in below-normal thicknesses and a markedly drier air mass that will last into Mon, albeit with some modification as the mean weak trough eases eastward just off the East Coast as heights build in the west due to the building mid level ridge through the Miss Valley and Ohio Valley. Weather may remain a bit unsettled over the eastern CWA near the baggy upper trough axis, but otherwise will have a dry forecast. Highs mostly in the lower-mid 80s and lows in the lower-mid 60s. -GIH && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 130 AM Tuesday... 24 hour TAF period: VFR conditions should prevail for most of the TAF period but there will be the usual period of MVFR stratus possible, especially from KRDU eastward. This should be fairly short lived and conditions will return to VFR a little after sunrise. Northeasterly winds will remain in place for the duration of the TAF period at 5-10 kts. Long Term: Fairly dry conditions for much of the week with the biggest threat for showers and thunderstorms in the extreme eastern locations. A better chance for sub-VFR conditions near the end of the week as what is now tropical depression nine makes a pass to the south. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...Badgett SHORT TERM...Vincent LONG TERM...Hartfield AVIATION...Ellis is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.