Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 190138 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 937 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL EXTEND SOUTH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND DRIFT EAST ACROSS FLORIDA TONIGHT... THEN SLOWLY MEANDER ALONG THE SOUTHEAST US COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 930 PM FRIDAY... RAIN STARTING TO SET IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF PRECIP SHIELD AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN CENTRAL GULF...WITHIN THE FAVORABLE UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION. THIS NORTHWARD EXPANSION IS LITTLE FASTER THAN WHAT PREVIOUS GUIDANCE SHOWN AND THUS HAVE INCREASED POPS ACCORDINGLY WITH CATEGORICAL POPS EVERYWHERE BY 06Z AS LOW AND MID- LEVEL FGEN REALLY RAMPS UP ON COOL SIDE OF THE SHARPENING COASTAL FRONT AND STILL DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF...WITH STRONG INFLUX OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.2-1.4". EXPECT HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...RANGING FROM A ONE-THIRD OF AN INCH ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT TO 1.25-1.5" ACROSS THE SANDHILLS/COASTAL PLAIN. LOWS TONIGHT 45-50.-CBL SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE RAW AND CHILLY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND A STEADY NE FLOW AT 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. GIVEN THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE HIGH FORECAST TO THE NORTH... AND THE EXPECTED WIDESPREAD RAIN AND LOW CLOUDINESS SATURDAY... THE THOUGHT IS TO UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS BACK TO A FEW DEGREES OF THE FORECAST WET BULB TEMPERATURES. THIS WOULD YIELD READINGS THAT SHOULD STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 IN THE NORTH... AND 50S ELSEWHERE SATURDAY. A GOOD 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL (SOUND FAMILIAR??).
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY... MODELS GENERALLY TAKE THE MID/UPPER LOW OFF THE GA/SC COAST ON AN EASTWARD TRACK... BUT SLOWLY. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE PROLONGED NE FLOW IS PROBLEMATIC IN FORECASTING CLEARING. CURRENT POPS SHOW THIS TREND. THE STEADY RAINFALL SHOULD BECOME LIGHTER WITH TIME EVENTUALLY TAPERING TO OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST. LOWS WITH A BREEZY NE WIND WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE. IT APPEARS THERE IS THE CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT CLEARING IN THE NW ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY STILL FAVOR LOW CLOUDINESS TO LINGER ELSEWHERE MUCH OF THE DAY. HIGHS SHOULD HOLD IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY... SUNDAY NIGHT: THE CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...TAKING THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIP WITH IT. THUS LOOK FOR SKIES TO BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT SUNDAY NIGHT... ALTHOUGH ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE PRESENT FOR SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN MONDAY MORNING. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT NEAR NORMAL...UPPER 40S. DURING THE DAY MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL FACILITATE FAIR WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE NEXT WEATHER-MAKE FOR US WILL BE A FAST-MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOC SFC COLD FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND INSTABILITY PROGS SUGGEST SOME THUNDER IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY. GIVEN 0-6KM SHEAR PROGS...AND MODEST LOW LEVEL JET...RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE RISK FOR INTENSE CONVECTIN IS LIMITED...BUT WE`LL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON MODEL TRENDS. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID- UPR 70S. BEHIND THIS FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 745 PM FRIDAY... A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS A LARGE AREA OF PRECIP BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA. THE AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY TRACKS EASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS LOW WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST...THEREFORE ONCE CONDITIONS GO DOWN IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...THE LOW CIGS AND VSBYS (IFR TO LIFR) IN RAIN WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. THERE COULD BE A SLIGHT IMPROVE IN CIGS/VSBYS AS THE PRECIP BEGINS TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AT THE VERY END OF THE TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK...PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH A GRADUAL RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA ON TUESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND ASSOCIATED ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS. HOWEVER THIS WILL BE A MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BADGETT NEAR TERM...CBL/BADGETT SHORT TERM...BADGETT LONG TERM...NP AVIATION...KRD

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