Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 301741 RRA AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 140 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS BEFORE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND RETROGRADING COASTAL FRONT CAUSES PRECIPITATION TO BECOME MORE LIKELY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY... LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT IS NOW CONFINED TO HALIFAX COUNTY AND SHOULD BE DISSIPATING SHORTLY AS SHALLOW MOISTURE BETWEEN 850 AND 750 MB WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY ACCORDING TO FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS LAYER DOES RE-APPEAR THIS AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THEREFORE SOME WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLY WITH AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS IN THE 5-8 KFT RANGE. OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS PARKED IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE APPALACHIANS. THEREFORE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. THICKNESS VALUES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY SUGGEST SIMILAR TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY... SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACK-SIDE OF THE HIGHLY AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL CAUSE THE TROUGH AXIS CENTERED OVER THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING TO RETROGRADE TO THE MS RIVER THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY. STALLED COASTAL TROUGH/FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL FOLLOW SUITE...WITH SELY MOISTURE RETURN FLOW LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIP DEVELOPING THURSDAY NIGHT/PREDAWN HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE COASTAL TROUGH MOVES INLAND. HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS THURSDAY 82-87. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY... MODELS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE TOWARDS A WETTER SOLUTION FOR THE LONG TERM...ALTHOUGH THE EXACT DETAILS OF WHERE/WHEN THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL OCCUR ARE STILL RATHER UNCERTAIN. THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT WESTWARD...NUDGING THE HIGHLY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BACK TOWARDS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THE LINGERING FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL WILL ALSO MOVE CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND LIKELY INLAND BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE WASHING OUT NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION... MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE (PWATS RISING BACK OVER 1.5 INCHES BY FRIDAY...THEN APPROACHING 2 INCHES BY SATURDAY/SUNDAY) AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH NOW TO OUR WEST. BESIDES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING FROM THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND LINGERING INVERTED TROUGH...ENHANCED PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON PASSING DISTURBANCES ALOFT...WHICH ARE HARD TO PINPOINT WITH ANY CERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...ONE LOOKS TO APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND THEN ANOTHER ONE IS PROGGED TO PASS NORTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...SO WILL SHOW SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS (RELATIVE TO THE REST OF THE LONG TERM) DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S (WARMEST EARLY NEXT WEEK)...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND MID/UPPER 60S BY LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 140 PM WEDNESDAY... 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER AT THE 3-7 KFT RANGE MAY LEAD TO SOME SHALLOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE VARIABLE WINDS AT LESS THAN 5KTS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME SUB VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...PRIMARILY AT CENTRAL AND EASTERN SITES BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT LARGELY AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE BROKEN CEILINGS AT 5 KFT SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z WITH WINDS LESS THAN 5 KTS GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH. LONG TERM: CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COASTAL TROUGH RETROGRADES WESTWARD INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ELLIS NEAR TERM...ELLIS SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...KRD AVIATION...ELLIS

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