Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 231405 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1005 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to build over the SE US today and tonight. This high will weaken as shift south of the area on Monday, in advance of a dry cold front moving through the area Monday evening. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1005 AM Sunday... Northwest flow aloft and weak surface troughing in the lee of the mountains today. 120m height rises at H5 noted in regional raobs will is resulting in strong subsidence and clear skies, with a slowly backing west-northwesterly low-level flow and neutral thermal advection helping to help warm moderate temps a little today; 68-70 most everywhere per consensus of guidance. A few wind gusts to 15- 20kt may be felt at times and have been added to the forecast, but otherwise no changes. Not as chilly tonight, with lows in the mid to upper 40s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 245 AM Sunday... A series of shortwaves diving through the back-side of the upper low over eastern Canada and attendant upper level trough extending across the eastern US will push a dry cold front through the area late Monday afternoon/evening. In fact, west-northwesterly downslope flow preceding the moisture-starved front will make it hard-pressed for even a few clouds to accompany the front. As such, we will see another day of unlimited sunshine with temperatures warming into the mid to to upper 70s(south)ahead of the front Monday afternoon. Modest CAA Monday evening/night on the leading edge of Canadian high pressure building into the area from the NW will support lows in the lower 40s north to mid/upper 40s south. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 255 AM Sunday... Cool and dry air will spread south and into the area Tuesday and Wednesday in northerly flow as Canadian high pressure ridges down the Atlantic coast. Highs will top out in the mid to upper 60s both days with Wednesday mornings low in the low to mid 40s. The progressive surface ridge will move east and allow winds to veer east and then southerly...initiating warm and moist advection by Thursday. Highs will be on the uptick Thursday, with highs across the south in the lower 70s, while the northern tier may not climb out of the mid 60s. An amplifying upper trof and surface cold front will move across the area Thursday night/Friday. With moisture advection ongoing, would expect showers in the east by Thursday afternoon spreading into the east Thursday night. Details are still murky but increasing confidence in the arrival timing due to hints of model consensus justify raising PoPs. Front should be east of the area on Friday...shutting off moisture advection to limit shower coverage to widely scattered. Highs Friday and Saturday return to near seasonable upper 60s to lower 70s with morning lows around 50. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 725 AM Sunday... 24 Hour TAF period: Very high confidence of VFR conditions through the TAF period with clear skies and no visibility restrictions. Forecast problem of the day will be wind gusts with light and somewhat variable winds this morning ranging from 240 to 330 degrees but settling in closer to the 240 degrees later this afternoon. Forecast soundings also support some mixing and thus a few gusts are possible this afternoon of about 15-20 kts. Looking Ahead: VFR conditions will dominate for much of the week with a low pressure system and associated cold front approaching in the Thursday/Friday time frame. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CBL NEAR TERM...CBL/BS SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...mlm AVIATION...Ellis is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.