Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 180153 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 850 PM EST Fri Nov 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will be overhead through this evening, then move offshore late tonight. A much warmer southwest flow will overspread the area Saturday, ahead of a cold front that will cross the region Saturday night. Chilly high pressure will return for Sunday through Monday. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
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As of 850 PM Friday... The latest surface analysis shows surface high pressure centered near Roanoke Rapids and extending northeast to southwest across eastern VA and the eastern Carolinas. Surface dew points ranged in the upper 20s to the mid 30s this evening with winds quickly becoming calm. A dry air mass is in place across the region as noted by the 0.24 inch precipitable water at KGSO this evening, 0.25 at MHX and 0.26 at RNK also! These conditions along with clear skies have allowed temperatures to plummet in locations where winds have decoupled. Temperatures have already fallen into the mid 30s to around 40 as of 830 pm 934 at Roxboro already with 35 at regular cold spots in Sanford and Siler City. Have adjusted lows tonight downward a few degrees and accelerated the hourly temperature to this evening with mainly steady temperatures overnight. -Blaes
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 308 PM Friday... The main theme of Saturday`s weather will be the wind. Expect SW winds at 15-20 mph to develop by late morning, especially in the western Piedmont. The WAA SW winds will overspread all areas for the afternoon at 15-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Partly sunny skies are forecast with the most sunshine expected in the east, with increasing amounts of cloudiness in the west during the afternoon likely yielding rather threatening looking skies by sunset. Showers should remain NW of the area through sunset. Highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s NW to SE. The main mid/upper trough and associated lift/convergence is forecast with high confidence to arrive late evening from the NW. Showers are expected between 1100 PM and 300 AM in the NW, spreading east and affecting the rest of the region between midnight and 600 AM. Gusty winds out ahead of the line of showers from the SW at 15-25 mph will gradually decrease with the passage of the line of showers, shifting to the West at 10 mph overnight. Temperatures will remain up most of the night with pre-frontal cold front warming conditions expected to linger, especially given the slow front and extensive cloudiness/mixing. Lows may cool briefly into the 40s in the NW, but 50s to 60 expected elsewhere and down east. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 200 PM Friday... Longer range forecast looking on track. A cold front will move east of the area early Sunday morning. Gradient between the parent low over Quebec and high pressure over lower Mississippi valley Sunday will lead to northwesterly surface winds gusting to 15-20 kts. Temperatures during this time frame should top out in the mid 50s with low temperatures near or slightly below freezing. A warming trend will begin on Tuesday as high pressure moves offshore and an upper level trough sits to the west of the region. On Wednesday the upper trough will pass mainly north of the area. With very limited moisture in place do not believe there will be much if any precip in the area. A dry cold front will move through Wednesday night bringing in a cooler airmass for the end of the work week. For Friday, low pressure will move out of the Gulf of Mexico and across the Florida peninsula spreading some rain northward into eastern and southern sections of our area. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 630 PM Friday... 24-Hour TAF period: High confidence in predominantly VFR conditions through the 24 hour TAF period, with a small chance for a period of MVFR cigs (especially at KINT/KGSO) between 12Z and 18Z Saturday. Expect increasing cloud cover late tonight through 00Z Sunday, however precipitation should hold off until after 00Z Sunday. The biggest aviation concern will be strong, gusty winds from the southwest for the latter half of the period. Winds will generally increase after daybreak to sustained 10-15 kts with gusts to 20-25 kts. -KC Looking ahead: A short 3-4 hour period of MVFR CIGS/VSBYS with showers is expected to spread west to east across central NC between 00z/10z Saturday evening and night as a cold front crosses the area, resulting in a shift of winds from SW to W Sat night. VFR conditions are expected starting Sunday morning as high pressure returns, lasting through Tuesday. -Badgett && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...Blaes SHORT TERM...Hartfield LONG TERM...Ellis/Franklin AVIATION...KC/Badgett/Hartfield

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