Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 011926 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 325 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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BENEATH PREVAILING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVE INTO AND STALL OVER OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...AND LINGER OVERHEAD THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 325 PM WEDNESDAY... ISOLATED CONVECTION HIGHLY PROBABLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY THIS EVENING AS SLIGHT INSTABILITY AND WEAK FORCING SHOULD INITIATE/SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS FOR ENOUGH TIME TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS. WHILE MOST OF THE SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE MINIMAL OR WEAK...ENOUGH DOWNDRAFT CAPE EXISTS OVER SECTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT TO CAUSE STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. DUE TO WESTERLY STEERING FLOW ALOFT...SOME CONVECTION THAT FIRES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN NC WILL DRIFT EAST-SE AND POSSIBLY MAKE IT INTO THE YADKIN/PEE DEE RIVER VALLEY AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. IN ADDITION...A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL VORT MAX OVER THE TN VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST. THIS SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE MAY INITIATE AND/OR SUSTAIN A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU...MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 1. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 65-70 DEGREE RANGE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 325 PM WEDNESDAY... AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS PERIOD. INITIAL VORT MAX AND ATTENDANT SHEAR AXIS WILL EXIT THE AREA EARLY THU...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BUT SLIGHTLY STRONGER VORT MAX THAT WILL CROSS OUR REGION LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. BULK OF GUIDANCE SUGGEST BEST FORCING (THOUGH NOT OVERWHELMING) WILL OCCUR IN VICINITY OF THE 850-700MB TROUGH...CLOSER TO THE VIRGINIA BORDER. THUS SHOULD SEE BETTER COVERAGE OF SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES VERSUS THE SOUTH. THUS PLAN TO GRADUATE POPS FROM LOW END LIKELY FAR NORTH-NW TO CHANCE POPS FAR SOUTH. THIS...IN TURN...WILL LEAD TO A SIMILAR TEMP GRADIENT WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 80S NORTH WHERE CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL BE MORE EXTENSIVE...TO THE UPPER 80S-AROUND 90 SOUTH WHERE PARTIAL AND FEWER SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. WHILE SOME BULK SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 20-25KTS ACROSS THE NORTH MAY LEAD TO SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE BANDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE THREAT. ACROSS THE SOUTH...IF ENOUGH PARTIAL SUN OCCURS...AVAILABLE DOWNDRAFT CAPE MAY PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST WELL INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A TEMPORARY LULL POSSIBLE WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 205 PM WEDNESDAY... PROGRESSIVE AND ACTIVE UPPER PATTERN FEATURING A GENERAL WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DISTURBANCES IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE AREA ATOP A PERSISTENT FRONTAL ZONE WHICH WILL BE ALIGNED WEST-EAST IN THE VICINITY OF NC THROUGH THE PERIOD. EARLY IN THE EXTENDED...AN INITIAL DISTURBANCE WILL BE SKIRTING ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND WILL MAINTAIN OUR ONGOING LIKELY POPS AREA-WIDE...GRADUATED HIGHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES CONCERNING THE TIMING OF LATER DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO ENHANCE THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION EACH DAY...ALTHOUGH THE TREND WILL STILL TEND TO FAVOR A DIURNAL PATTERN OF INCREASED COVERAGE AND STRENGTH DURING MAX HEATING. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 80S NORTH TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTH...SUBJECT TO DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER COVERAGE. MORNING LOWS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 70. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 120 PM WEDNESDAY... THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL NC FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD BE ISOLATED. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE NIGHT AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL NC LATE NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS. A STALLED FRONT OVER THE REGION LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CAUSE AREAS OF STRATUS TO DEVELOP LATE AT NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THE ABOVE SCENARIO WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL HOURS OF MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS EACH DAY FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. && ..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WSS NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...MLM AVIATION...WSS

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