Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 271850 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 249 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY... SAME OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD (ALTHOUGH MAYBE A BIT WEAKER/FURTHER EAST) AND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY MOSTLY ACROSS SC AND EASTERN NC AND IS TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS IS LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THESE WEAK DISTURANCES WILL BE THE MAIN TRIGGERS FOR ANY CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...A LEFT-OVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION LAST NIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT MAY HELP ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AS A RESULT OF ALL OF THIS... SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS ARE EXPECTED...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER COVERAGE THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. HOWEVER...WEAK/MARGINAL ML CAPE (GENERALLY BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG) AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 10-15 KTS WILL FAVOR DISORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH LITTLE TO NO SEVERE THREAT. PRECIP SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...WITH MAYBE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO THROUGH MIDNIGHT. PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND OVERNIGHT...KEEPING TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO MUCH. THEREFORE... OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY... MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE AREA MAY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS A SHORTWAVE THROUGH SLOWLY PUSHES EASTWARD. ALSO...MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPING THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON THURSDAY (COMPARED TO TODAY)... BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL STILL BE ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 10-15 KTS (OR LESS). THEREFORE...ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD REMAIN DISORGANIZED...WITH LITTLE TO NO SEVERE THREAT NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 220 PM WEDNESDAY... ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST... KEEPING THE BEST CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS TO OUR WEST...ALTHOUGH CAN`T COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS JUST YET FROM OUR TRIAD ZONES. WITH THE RIDGE STILL IN PLACE ON SATURDAY...LOOK FOR THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS TO BE MAINLY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST NEAR THE DEEPER MOISTURE...AND TO OUR EAST ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...THE FORECAST FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. WHILE THE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF...BOTH MODELS KEEP THE BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO OUR NORTH...CONSEQUENTLY KEEPING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS N OF HWY 64...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE TO OUR EAST TO SEE HOW FAR ANY SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY CAN PUSH INLAND. FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A COMPLICATED PATTERN APPEARS TO BE EVOLVING WITH A CLOSED LOW MEANDERING OVER THE LOWER MISS VALLEY OR GULF COAST REGION...AND THE RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR NORTHEAST. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS LOW RIGHT NOW...PERSISTENT MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA SUGGESTS AT LEAST CLIMO-POPS EACH DAY...DESPITE LACK OF MAJOR FORCING MECHANISMS. TEMPS: LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN STEADY OR GRADUALLY CLIMB THROUGH THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THEN FALL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SFC RIDGE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE REPLACED BY HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL (LOWER-MIDDLE 80S) EARLY- MIDDLE NEXT WEEK. LOWS IN THE 60S EACH DAY. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY... MOST OF CENTRAL NC HAS RETURNED TO VFR CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH A FEW LINGERING MVFR CIGS REMAIN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE AREA (BEST COVERAGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST) WILL FILL IN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGELY VFR THROUGH AT LEAST THE LATE EVENING HOURS...ALTHOUGH BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THE HEAVIER STORMS. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF THUNDER AT KRDU...KFAY AND KRWI WHERE COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE THE GREATEST. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER AT ANY TAF SITE. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS/FOG WILL BE LIKELY AREAWIDE TOWARDS THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OF THURSDAY. ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD LIFT/DISSIPATE BY 15-16Z ON THURSDAY. OUTLOOK...THE THREAT FOR RESTRICTIONS IN EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER THE AREA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE SOME INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETROGRADES WEST OVER THE AREA. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CBL NEAR TERM...KRD SHORT TERM...KRD LONG TERM...RAH AVIATION...KRD/CBL

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