Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 011024 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 625 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... WESTERN VIRGINIA... AND WESTERN AND NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE WEEKEND... AS A FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. THIS FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTHWEST INTO THE PIEDMONT BEFORE DISSIPATING ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 220 AM SATURDAY... VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY... AS THE BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH HOLDS OVER THE EASTERN STATES. THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE NOW ANALYZED ACROSS SE NC FROM THE ERN SANDHILLS TO THE CENTRAL COAST WILL REMAIN LARGELY IN PLACE WITH ONLY MINOR WAVERING EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL HOLD OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS INTO WRN/NRN NC FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND... ACCOMPANIED BY ANOMALOUSLY LOW PRECIPITABLE WATER AND MID LEVEL DRY/STABLE AIR THAT WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION OVER MOST OF THE CWA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA... WHERE LINGERING HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F) AND PW VALUES CLOSER TO NORMAL NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER... OUTSIDE OF SOUTHERN SAMPSON COUNTY... COVERAGE AND STRENGTH WILL BE GREATLY REDUCED BY THE LACK OF DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT... LACK OF INSTABILITY... AND LIMITED MOISTURE OVERALL. WILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHANCE AFTERNOON POP BOTH TODAY AND SUNDAY ROUGHLY SE OF A LINE FROM LAURINBURG TO TARBORO. THICKNESSES AND TRENDS OF GUIDANCE INDICATE HIGHS OF 90-95 BOTH DAYS. LOWS IN THE MID 60S NW TO AROUND 70 SE. -GIH && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 255 AM FRIDAY... LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY STAGNANT WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AN UPPER LOW AND REFLECTED SURFACE LOW WILL RESIDE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES BUT WILL BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE TO THE AREA WHILE SEVERAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES SKIRT THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...REMAINING MAINLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN BUT MOISTURE AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE VERY LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...GENERALLY LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES. A SURFACE HIGH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BRING WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID 90S WITH SOME UPPER 90S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S IN THE NW PIEDMONT TO LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 255 AM SATURDAY... WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: FORECAST BECOMES LESS CONFIDENT ON WEDNESDAY AS MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE WEST OF THE AREA THAT HELPS TO CAUSE A SOUTHWARD PUSH IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE SHORTWAVE IS IN QUESTION WITH THE GFS DEVELOPING A STRONG WAVE IN THE OHIO VALLEY BUT THE ECMWF IS WEAKER WITH THE FEATURE AND MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THUS THE ECMWF LENDS TO A LITTLE GREATER FORCING ACROSS CENTRAL NC FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC IS CENTERED A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH IN THE ECMWF AS WELL AND ALLOWS A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN LOW TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE OVER THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SERVE AS A CATALYST FOR CONVECTION. BEST CHANCES FOR ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTH AND IN EASTERN COUNTIES. HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW 70S. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: WITH UNCERTAINTIES ALREADY BUILT INTO WEDNESDAYS FORECAST...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ONLY BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN WITH REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE SHORTWAVE TO THE WEST...THE VERY LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS FALLEN MORE IN LINE WITH THE TIMING OF THE GFS FOR A THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE...GFS SOLUTION STILL SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD OF THE ECMWF. REGARDLESS...MOISTURE INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY BACK OVER 2 INCHES. THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WITH MODELS SHOWING ACTIVITY LINGERING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL BEFORE THE WAVE FINALLY EXITS THE COAST OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. EXTRA CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL HELP TEMPERATURES DROP BACK AT LEAST INTO THE LOW 90S IF NOT UPPER 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEK. LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 625 AM SATURDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS AT CENTRAL NC TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WITH ONE BRIEF EXCEPTION. THE LINGERING FRONTAL ZONE AND ACCOMPANYING HIGHER MOISTURE NEAR RWI WILL BRING A CONTINUED RISK OF MVFR/IFR FOG AND/OR PATCHY STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING... BEFORE 13Z. RAIN CHANCES ARE NEAR ZERO AT INT/GSO/RDU/RWI TODAY... AND ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM AT MOST IS EXPECTED NEAR FAY THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS AT ALL SITES WILL BE LIGHT... GENERALLY UNDER 8 KTS AND NEARLY CALM THROUGH DAYBREAK AND AGAIN STARTING THIS EVENING... VARIABLE IN DIRECTION EXCEPT MAINLY FROM THE WNW AT INT/GSO. LOOKING BEYOND 12Z SUN MORNING... VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD THROUGH MID WEEK. THE FRONT ACROSS SE NC WILL DRIFT NW INTO THE PIEDMONT AND DISSIPATE MONDAY... AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIR MASS HOLDS OVER THE REGION. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL BE VERY LOW THROUGH TUE... RISING A BIT WED BUT REMAINING LOW. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD SHORT TERM...ELLIS LONG TERM...ELLIS AVIATION...HARTFIELD

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