Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 300722 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 321 AM EDT Tue May 30 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A surface trough will linger over eastern NC today as a series of upper level disturbances track east across the region. Finally, a cold front will move southeast across VA and NC late Wednesday and Wednesday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 321 AM Tuesday... ...Isolated severe thunderstorms with damaging wind and large hail possible, mainly from the Triangle and Fayetteville east to the coast this afternoon and evening. Several upper level disturbances will track ENE in the fast flow aloft over the state through this evening. The boundary layer has stabilized early this morning. However, a nearly stationary front extended SW to NE through the Piedmont. There continued to be several areas of showers and isolated thunderstorms (much weaker than the ones of late evening that affected areas across Cumberland and Sampson Counties east to the coast). We will maintain a rather high POP early this morning for this shower activity which should continue to wane through the morning hours. The amount of clearing today is in question; however, there should be enough breaks in the overcast to allow significant destabilization along and ahead of the stationary front late morning into the afternoon. While the flow aloft is forecast to weaken somewhat, the shear should continue to help to develop and organize convection, especially along and ahead of the boundary - and where the destabilization due to heating is best. Forecast surface dew points in the mid to upper 60s along with highs in the mid to upper 80s suggests MLCapes on the order of 1500 to 2000 J/KG in the eastern zones. This combined with the aforementioned wind shear should support a few severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging wind again today. The area highlighted will be areas along and east of a line from Fayetteville to the Triangle, including the Coastal Plain. We will carry low end chance POP in the NW and near likely POP in the east for this afternoon. The chance of showers/storms will decrease with loss of heating this evening. Lows tonight should be in the 60s with some upper 50s over the northern Piedmont. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 321 AM Tuesday... Shortwave energy rotating around the base of the Great Lakes trough will push the main cold front into the region Wednesday afternoon and evening. A few strong storms are possible, but the mid level shear is expected to be weaker (30-35kt), and the low level moisture is forecast to be less (dew points in the lower 60s), than in previous days. Therefore, a few strong wind gusts to 40-45 mph are likely with any of the storms that get going along the front during peak heating, as highs reach the mid to upper 80s (90 around FAY). Skies will become mostly clear Wednesday night with lows in the 50s NW to lower 60s SE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 321 AM EDT Tuesday... Weak high pressure will bring drier conditions Thursday as the moisture gets suppressed to our south. A bit cooler air will also reduce highs into the lower to mid 80s, with some upper 70s in the NW. With dew points in the upper 40s and 50s, it will feel much cooler. Expect mostly sunny skies. Moisture will return Friday into the weekend as a new trough is forecast to develop from the upper Midwest into the Tennessee Valley and Appalachians. This will bring an increase in shower and thunderstorm chances, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours Friday through Sunday. Lows warm back to between 65-70, with highs in the mid to upper 80s. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 145 AM EDT Tuesday... MVFR CIGS and VSBYS with additional showers and isolated storms will linger overnight. A period of IFR CIGS are likely, especially due to the increase in low level moisture from KFAY to KRDU to KRWI between 09z and 13z/today. Otherwise, generally VFR conditions will return later this morning. VFR conditions are forecast this afternoon, with only a low chance of a shower or storm in the KFAY area this afternoon/evening. Outlook: Generally VFR conditions are expected Wed through Fri. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...Badgett SHORT TERM...Badgett LONG TERM...Badgett/BSD AVIATION...Badgett

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