Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 271750 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1250 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move offshore today, followed by a warm front lifting through the area tonight. Meanwhile, warm southwesterly flow will continue ahead of a cold front approaching from the west through midweek. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1015 AM Monday... Little change to the near term forecast. Adjusted hourly temperatures through early afternoon to reflect observed trends. A relatively dry air mass and a developing low level south-southwest flow will aid to boost temperatures through the 50s this morning, and into the 60s this afternoon. Potential for a few spots in the far south to top out around 70. The approach of a weakening low amplitude wave in the lower half of the atmosphere will lead to an increase in mid-high level clouds from the west later this afternoon and tonight. Increasing isentropic upglide in the low level warm air advection pattern (as depicted by the GFS and the NAM) support the idea of a few light rain showers tonight across the western and southern Piedmont. The abundant cloudiness and warming air mass will support overnight temperatures a solid 10-13 degrees warmer than last night. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 340 AM Monday... West-southwest flow will ensue on Tuesday as a surface warm front lifts north of the area. Morning stratus will likely hold longest across the west but full heating is expected for a large portion of the area as period of high clouds spread east in relatively low amplitude flow. 1000-850mb thicknesses support highs in the lower 70s west to near 80 east. Dewpoints creeping into the upper 50s and modest 6.5-7 C/KM mid level lapse rates will lead to weak instability, but forcing is largely lacking outside of warm advection. Currently think showers and a few storms will be widely scattered across the Piedmont and coastal plain. Tuesday will be rather mild in the warm sector of a stronger low pressure system moving through the Midwest, with lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 400 AM Monday... Wed-Wed night: A complex mid-upper level trough compromised of multiple embedded shortwave perturbations will move E from the Plains states early Wed to the Northeast by Thu morning. At the same time and at the surface, related waves of low pressure will migrate from the mid MS Valley to New England, while the trailing cold front will move from the Appalachians late Wed-Wed evening to the Atlantic coast by Thu morning. It will be warm and windy, but dry for most of the day Wed, owing to a stout capping inversion. Strong SWly flow in the warm sector will yield sustained 15-20 kt winds, with gusts up to 30-35 kts during the afternoon. Morning stratus, trapped beneath the aforementioned inversion, will disperse by midday or early afternoon, so temperatures should consequently rise rapidly into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Pre-frontal showers and storms will be possible over the far wrn Piedmont, as mid level height falls related to the approaching trough aloft move overhead and fully lift and erode the preceding capping inversion there by sunset. The better chance of showers and storms will occur Wed evening and Wed night, as the surface front sweeps Ewd. Strong SWly deep layer flow, oriented mainly parallel to the frontal zone, will favor linear convection that would pose primarily a damaging wind threat given a relative lack of more robust low level moistening, and associated instability. Blustery post- frontal NWly winds will follow in strong CAA late Wed night- early Thu, with lows in the low- mid 40s west to middle 50s east. Thu-Sun: A following clipper shortwave trough in NW flow aloft will amplify across the Middle Atlantic states Thu night-Fri, with an associated re-enforcing, but dry, cold frontal passage on Fri. Temperatures will nadir in the middle 20s to around 30 degrees Sat morning, but a moderating trend will follow as the flow aloft becomes more zonal by the weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 1250 PM Monday... There is a high likelihood of VFR conditions across central NC through 03Z Tuesday. An area of high pressure at the surface will be positioned offshore by tonight while an area of low pressure drifts slowly west. The resultant circulation around these two weather systems will yield a sly flow. This flow will lead to moisture increasing across the region overnight into Tuesday. This will increase the chance for low end VFR/MVFR ceilings, primarily across the western counties including the Triad terminals after 06Z Tuesday. In addition, there is a chance for a few showers overnight into the first half of Tuesday morning. An unsettled weather pattern across central NC through Wednesday night will lead to an increased risk for sub VFR conditions. Additionally, a tightening pressure gradient will lead to windy conditions Wednesday with gusts 30-40kts highly probable. Prior to that, there is a chance for low level wind shear conditions overnight Tuesday night, more so speed shear rather than directional shear. The approach and passage of a cold front late Wednesday and Wednesday night will also increase the risk for a few thunderstorms. At this time, VFR parameters appear highly probable Thursday through Saturday.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SMITH NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...SMITH LONG TERM...MWS AVIATION...WSS

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