Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 240046 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 844 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS...A DRY SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN FROM THE EAST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1200 PM SATURDAY... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN VICINITY OF THE 4-CORNERS REGION AT 15Z TODAY WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES TO THE CO FRONT RANGE BY 12Z SUN. HEIGHT FALLS /DPVA/ ATTENDANT THE UPPER LOW WILL AID INITIATION OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION /LATENT HEAT RELEASE/ ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE THIS AFT/EVE INTO TONIGHT. THIS...IN TURN...WILL AMPLIFY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND INCREASE HEIGHT RISES /SUBSIDENCE/ DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS. ACCORDINGLY...A PRONOUNCED SFC RIDGE ATTENDANT ~1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXTENDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN FROM THE EAST TONIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S FAR NE COASTAL PLAIN TO LOWER 80S SW PIEDMONT. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...COOLEST IN RURAL AND LOW-LYING AREAS. -VINCENT && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 1200 PM SATURDAY... THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING EASTWARD TO THE CO FRONT RANGE TONIGHT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SUN/SUN NIGHT... SHIFTING THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS. WITH ONGOING HEIGHT RISES /SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE/...THE PRONOUNCED SFC RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE. AS A RESULT...EXPECT CONTINUED DRY/PLEASANT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND...HIGHS SUN IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS SUN NIGHT NEAR 60F. -VINCENT && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 220 PM SATURDAY... A VERY STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS COUPLED WITH A STRONG SURFACE HIGH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL COMBINE TO KEEP THE LONG TERM WARM AND MOSTLY DRY. MODELS DO DIFFER THOUGH WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ON THE EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM ATTACHED TO A SURFACE LOW ADVANCING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. EVENTUALLY THE SURFACE HIGH CAUSES THE FRONT TO DETACH FROM THE PARENT LOW AND STALLS IT OVER THE APPALACHIANS FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. AS A RESULT...DIURNAL PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD IN THE TRIAD BUT SOME MODELS KEEP THE ENTIRE CWA DRY THROUGH THE WHOLE PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON THE GFS (THE WETTER SOLUTION) SHOW SOME INSTABILITY EACH AFTERNOON...HINTING THAT IF THERE IS PRECIPITATION THUNDER WOULD AT LEAST BE POSSIBLE...EVEN IF STORMS ARE NOT VERY STRONG DUE TO LACK OF FORCING. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT. STILL EXPECTING A WARMING TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR MOST OF THE WEEK IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BUT CHANCES FOR SOME 90S ARE BECOMING LESS LIKELY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 820 PM SATURDAY... 24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT TO BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FOR SUNDAY IN THE 7 TO 10 KT RANGE... WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES (VFR). LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND A SFC RIDGE EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. A POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS (MVFR/IFR CEILINGS) AND ISOLD AFT/EVE CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY BUT SURELY INCREASE BY MID/LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE...AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW COMMENCES. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...VINCENT NEAR TERM...VINCENT SHORT TERM...VINCENT LONG TERM...ELLIS AVIATION...RAH

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