Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 011058 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 658 AM EDT WED JUL 01 2015 .SYNOPSIS... BENEATH PREVAILING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER EAST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THURSDAY...PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL STALL OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 420 AM WEDNESDAY... HEIGHT RISES ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE ARE FORECAST OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TODAY...BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING. REGIONAL VWP DATA CORROBORATE MODEL FORECASTS OF GENERALLY WESTERLY 925-850 MB FLOW. AS SUCH...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY TODAY...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A STORM OVER THE FAR REACHES OF THE SOUTHERN- CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SEA BREEZE...AND ALSO IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...WHERE SCATTERED UPSTREAM CONVECTION FROM THE TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS MAY PROPAGATE. COVERAGE SHOULD BE MINIMAL...HOWEVER...OWING TO BOTH THE AFOREMENTIONED GENERALLY SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS AND A MIXING OUT OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND RESULTANT LIMITED CAPE. PROJECTED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1420 METERS OR SO SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TUE - GENERALLY 90 TO 95 DEGREES. AN IMPULSE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND PRECEDING WAA-DRIVEN MID LEVEL CLOUD BAND OVER THE MID MS VALLEY...WILL PIVOT ESE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND NW PIEDMONT...WITH LOWS WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 70. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 257 AM WEDNESDAY... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO THE EVENING AS STRONG SURFACE HEATING COMBINES WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE LATE IN THE DAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND WILL AGAIN BE THE MAIN WEATHER HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE EXPECTED. INCREASING FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS BY LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT FAVORS CONVECTION TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED THAN IS TYPICALLY EXPECTED DURING THE SUMMER. EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORMS TO DIE OFF OVERNIGHT OR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHES EAST. LOWS 68-72. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 257 AM WEDNESDAY... A CONTINUATION OF THE CURRENT HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FOR EARLY JULY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDWEST AND EASTERN STATES WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST. DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL OCCASIONALLY SEND WEAKENING COLD FRONTS INTO OUR REGION. THE TYPICAL HOT HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH THE OCCASIONALLY ENHANCED CHANCE OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. && .AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 655 AM WEDNESDAY... IFR CEILINGS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NC THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY ERODE FROM THE EDGES AND BECOME VFR THROUGH AROUND 15Z...SLOWEST AT KFAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS AND A GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WESTERLY FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A MID-UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTING UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY SUGGESTS THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION WILL BE GENERALLY 15 PERCENT OR LESS. OUTLOOK: THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LATE THU-SUN...WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. SOME IFR-MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE EVEN OUTSIDE OF STORMS DURING THAT TIME...MOST LIKELY FRI-SAT. && ..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...BADGETT LONG TERM...BADGETT AVIATION...26

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