-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KRAH 221737
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
140 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level disturbance will shift eastward through the region
today, before pushing to our east and offshore by early evening.
High pressure will build overhead this evening through Tuesday, then
shift to our southeast. The resulting southwest flow will bring
warming temperatures through mid to late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 950 AM Monday...

Improving conditions expected today, after a chilly and rainy
Sunday. The morning surface analysis shows the front well to our SE,
with high pressure over the lower Miss Valley building eastward,
resulting in a low level NE flow over our area. This is topped by a
potent shortwave trough shifting E over the area, noted in WV
imagery and UA analyses, and radar continues to show light returns
over our eastern sections. But given the dry low level flow, cloud
bases are fairly high, and very little to none of these returns are
reaching the ground. This activity will continue to push eastward
with the mid level shortwave trough through early to mid afternoon,
and skies should gradually clear out as deep subsidence takes over.
The low level CAA and thicknesses that are ~30 m below normal will
result in a cool day, with highs 60-65 under increasing sunshine
throughout the day. -GIH


Earlier discussion from 240 AM: Cloudiness will give way to mostly
sunny skies, cool temperatures. Patchy light frost possible tonight
in the normally colder areas of the Piedmont.

A strong upper level disturbance will push east across the region
this morning. There will be considerable cloudiness early and
possibly some sprinkles; otherwise, skies will become mostly sunny
as the base of the trough axis moves east this afternoon. Highs will
be cool, ranging in the lower to mid 60s.

Tonight, high pressure will be over the Appalachians early shifting
over the western and southern Piedmont tonight. Expect clear skies
and light wind with excellent radiational cooling. Lows 35-40
expected with 33-34 in some of the colder spots of the Piedmont.
Some patchy light frost will be possible in these areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 235 AM Monday...

Milder and mostly sunny.

High pressure will shift offshore Tuesday. This will allow a return
flow from the south-southwest around the high pressure. Expect
mostly sunny skies and moderating temperatures. Highs should jump
into the upper 60s to lower 70s. Lows Tuesday night will also be
milder with upper 40s to lower 50s expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 245 AM Monday...

Passing light rain, but mostly sprinkles, on Wed remain the only
rain chances through Sun. Temperatures will be on the rise to above
normal this weekend.

A northern stream shortwave will pivot across the northern Mid-
Atlantic Wed morning at the base of a parent low to its north over
Ontario. Central NC may see some glancing DPVA associated with this
wave across the northern Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain and may
provide enough forcing within a thin band of mid-level moisture to
squeeze out some measurable precipitation. Further south, less
forcing and decaying light rain upstream would likely still result
in sprinkles into the early afternoon before shifting south and east
of the forecast area. Canadian high pressure will strengthen to
1030mb as it slides over the Great Lakes and push a cold front down
through the Mid-Atlantic and becoming stationary over the Southeast
by Thurs morning. Depending on the level of clearing the can occur
overnight and the timing of the fropa, which has a tendency to be
slower than coarse model guidance depicts, some patchy fog ahead of
the front would be possible.

Thur through Sun: High amplitude riding will build over the eastern
CONUS in response to upstream broad troughing pushing into the
western CONUS. Related surface high pressure will further strengthen
to 1035 mb off the Northeast coast and extend down through the
southern Mid-Atlantic for the remainder of the forecast period.
Forecast guidance continues the trend of keeping forcing and related
precipitation chances west of the mountains Fri through the weekend
in relation to the system moving through the Central/Northern
Plains. Closer to home, NWP guidance hints at some very light precip
chances this weekend over the Coastal Plain/Sandhills along an
inland retreating inverted trough as well as upslope flow induced
pulse convection within low-level moisture return and weak
instability in the NC Foothills and western Piedmont. However, as
mentioned in the previous discussion, proximity to gradually
increasing subtropical ridge will likely help suppress deep
convection. Low-level thicknesses are expected to gradually rise
through the weekend behind a warm frontal passage and a return of
above normal temperatures by Sun (highs in the upper 70s to low 80s
with lows in the 50s).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 140 PM Monday...

Confidence is high that VFR conditions will prevail across central
NC for the next 24 hours, as we remain under a ridge of high
pressure. Scattered to briefly broken stratocu currenly over the
area will diminish toward nightfall, with generally clear skies
through Tue. Surface winds from the N or NE will be mostly under 10
kts then diminish to light toward sunset.

Looking beyond 18z Tue, while a few light showers or sprinkles are
possible Wed with passage of an upper level disturbance and surface
cold front, we will otherwise be under high pressure, with VFR
conditions holding through Sat. -GIH
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Hartfield/Badgett
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...Swiggett
AVIATION...Hartfield