Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 061157 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 655 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AND SETTLE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A STRONG MODERATING TREND WILL COMMENCE SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY... GIVEN THAT THIS TURNED OUT TO BE A BIG RAIN EVENT...WITH LESS THAN 1 PERCENT OF THE TOTAL PRECIPITATION IN THE FROZEN OR FREEZING FORM... I WOULD REALLY LIKE TO HAVE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT OUT THIS MORNING FOR PATCHY BLACK ICE. HOWEVER... I WILL NOT CANCEL A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THAT IS IN PLACE AT THE CURRENT TIME BECAUSE THERE IS SOME BLACK ICE OUT THERE AND THE HAZARD IS VERY REAL. ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE THROUGH THE RESPECTIVE TIMES AND WILL NOT BE CHANGED. CLEARING RAPIDLY THIS MORNING AS SEEN ON SATELLITE. THE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO PLUMMET TO BETWEEN 17-25. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED TODAY AS THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS GENERALLY 35-40 NORTH AND LOWER 40S SOUTH... A BIT ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE DUE TO LACK OF ICE AND SNOW... AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LEE TROUGHING THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORTING WARMER TEMPS. CLEAR AND COLD TONIGHT... LOWS IN THE 20S. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY... MODERATION IN A GRADUAL SENSE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS RETURN TO CLOSER TO NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 345 AM FRIDAY... SUN-SUN NIGHT: SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL PERSIST SUN GIVEN A RELATIVELY NEUTRAL ADVECTION PATTERN WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONFINED WELL NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONFINED OVER THE DESERT SW/WESTERN GOMEX. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S SUN AND LOWS UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SUN NIGHT AS MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER INCREASES FROM THE WEST/SW AS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY...ATTENDANT WAA/FGEN...AND RESULTING PRECIPITATION PROGRESS EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE LATEST 00Z GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT A PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WSW-ENE ORIENTED SWATH OF H7 FRONTOGENESIS AND LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NORTH/NW PORTIONS OF THE STATE LATE SUN NIGHT. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE INTRODUCED A CHANCE FOR RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT...BEST CHANCES FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTH AND NW. MON-TUE NIGHT: WHILE PRIOR GUIDANCE INDICATED A SPLIT FLOW SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH LITTLE NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM INTERACTION...THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM INTERACTION WILL OCCUR UPSTREAM OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY LATE MON INTO TUE...WITH A RELATIVELY MORE ROBUST GOMEX WAVE PROGRESSIVELY TRACKING NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. AS A RESULT...EXPECT INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NC LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TUE. WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP...WILL DECREASE HIGH TEMPS AND INCREASE LOW TEMPS FROM THE PRIOR FORECAST BY SEVERAL DEGREES. WED-THU: UNCERTAINTY INCREASES DRAMATICALLY MID/LATE NEXT WEEK WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE MAY BECOME CUT-OFF OVER THE WESTERN GULF AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH NW FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AT THIS TIME WILL TREND THE FORECAST TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY. -VINCENT && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 655 AM FRIDAY... A TREND TOWARD VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BETWEEN 12Z-15Z... WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. OUTLOOK: HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS CENTRAL NC AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ007>011-021>028- 038>043-078. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ073>077-083>086-088-089. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BADGETT NEAR TERM...BADGETT SHORT TERM...BADGETT LONG TERM...VINCENT AVIATION...BADGETT

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