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716
FXUS62 KRAH 012000
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
400 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A mid and upper-level trough and accompanying surface cold front
will move slowly eastward across the Middle Atlantic and Carolinas
through Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 400 PM Tuesday...

* Convection will become increasingly-numerous, and slow-
  moving/backbuilding with a primary threat of heavy rain/flooding,
  over the Piedmont and wrn Sandhills this evening

A positive tilt mid/upr-level trough stretching this afternoon from
ON to the mid MS Valley will migrate ewd and reach the vicinity of
the cntl and srn Appalachians by 12Z Wed. It will be immediately
preceded by a plume PWs around 2.25" and also a convectively-
amplified mid-level trough that includes this afternoon a few MCVs
and areas of pre-frontal convection over cntl PA, the srn OH/WV
border, and ern TN/KY, respectively. The latter and srn-most
feature, and another that may develop from growing convection over
the wrn Carolinas, will focus mesoscale forcing for ascent as
it/they progress slowly east and across the NC Piedmont tonight.

At the surface, a Piedmont trough will remain over cntl NC,
downstream of an outflow-reinforced and modulated front that will
approach from the northwest and extend from the nrn Middle Atlantic
coast to the srn Appalachians by 12Z Wed.

Diurnal convection, minimal in coverage and intensity along the
Piedmont trough, will become increasingly-numerous over the Piedmont
late this afternoon through evening, as the aforementioned upstream
convection/aggregate outflow and MCVs from the wrn Carolinas to ern
TN/KY, edge ewd. Swly, 15-25 kts of lwr to mid-tropospheric flow and
mean wind evident on the 12Z MHX and RNK RAOBs will support multi-
cell development and individual cell motion to the northeast at
similar speeds this afternoon. However, a nocturnal acceleration of
a modest, ~25 kt low-level jet will become anti-parallel to the mean
wind and cause upwind propagation vectors to decrease and support
slow-moving/backbuilding convection tonight. While a threat of a few
strong to tree-damaging wet microbursts will increase with the
increase in number of cells over especially the nw Piedmont through
early evening, flash flooding, especially in urban areas, will pose
a greater concern. Low temperatures will be in the 70s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 PM Tuesday...

Upper level trough will shift across the Mid-Atlantic region
Wednesday. At the surface, a cold front extending from Maine down
across the Appalachian Mountains into the deep south will slowly
move across our region beginning early Wednesday and exiting our
region sometime Thursday morning. Showers and storms early Wednesday
morning will be scattered becoming more numerous/widespread by the
mid/late morning. As the front progresses east, increased chance of
storms will be along and east of the US1 corridor in the afternoon
and  evening hours. Most of the precipitation will clear west to
east late evening and continue the eastward drying trend into the
early overnight hours.

While stronger storms will have some gusty winds, the main threat
with these storms will be heavy downpours resulting in flash
flooding. WPC has portions of central NC in a slight risk (level 2
of 4) for flash flooding for Wednesday, mainly across the NE, near
the VA border and coast. While it only extends a few counties into
RAHs region, this could later be extended further inland. Generally
everywhere else is in a marginal risk for flash flooding (level 1 of
4). Thus, everyone across the region should be aware of stronger
thunderstorms with quick heavy downpours, especially in low lying
and poor drainage areas. Rainfall amounts from this afternoon
through Thursday morning will vary from 0.50 to an  inch in the
south 0.75 to 1.50 across the north. Some models are showing
localized amounts of 1.50 to 2.50 inches possible in areas across
the northern Piedmont.

Temperatures will be very dependent on when the rain moves in but
expect highs in the low 80s north and mid 80s south. Overnight lows
will range from upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 215 PM Tuesday...

Following this trough associated with the front, a weak ridge will
build in for the weekend. Due to this, moisture flow into the
Carolinas will be weakened and reduce temperatures and dew point
temperatures slightly. Thus, overall reducing precipitation chances
through the weekend.

The only area of interest for precipitation over the weekend will be
in the Sandhills and Southern Coastal Plain. Recent GFS and ECWMF
model runs continue to have low confidence with the development of a
tropical system off of an old frontal boundary west of Florida.
Current ensembles have the system remain disorganized as it crosses
the Florida peninsula and up along the Mid-Atlantic coast. With the
low confidence of the track, PoPs remain low with isolated showers
through early next week.

Daily temperatures will range from the low to mid 90s during the day
with overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 220 PM Tuesday...

Initially, "pop-up" showers/storms with afternoon heating will
become more numerous and concentrated ahead of a mid/upper-level
trough and accompanying surface cold front that will edge ewd into
cntl NC tonight-Wed. A band of IFR to possibly LIFR ceilings will
accompany the convection - mainly over the Piedmont tonight and then
across FAY and RWI by Wed morning. While showers and storms and
associated flight restrictions may linger for much of the day Wed,
ceilings will otherwise gradually lift through MVFR and scatter to
VFR from west to east through the afternoon.

Outlook: Morning stratus and fog will be possible amid a lingering,
unseasonably moist airmass Thu morning, especially at ern sites,
ahead of a slow-moving and weakening cold front.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...CA/Skari
AVIATION...MWS