Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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782 FXUS62 KRAH 240807 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 305 AM EST Tue Jan 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Mild high pressure will build into the area in the wake of the deep low pressure system lift northeast up the northern Mid Atlantic coast. A cold front will push east across Central NC on Thursday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 305 AM Tuesday... In the wake of deep low pressure system lifting up the Mid-Atlantic Coast, shortwave ridging extending from the GOM northward into the Middle MS Valley will shift east over the area. Resultant strong subsidence will lead to rapid clearing this morning with breezy conditions developing in response to the tight gradient between the low to our northeast and the ridging building from the west. Expect sustain winds of 12 to 15 kts, gusting to 25 to 28 kts through the afternoon. Winds will decouple this evening as surface ridge builds briefly over the area overnight. Low-level thicknesses support highs ranging from upper 50s north to lower 60s south. Good radiational conditions tonight will support lows in the mid 30s north/northwest to lower 40s elsewhere.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 305 AM Tuesday... Ridging over the area to start the day on Wednesday will shift east and offshore during the later half of the afternoon, in advance of a lead positively tilted shortwave trough ejecting eastward through the Central Plain and MS Valley, with attendant cold front progged to reach the central and southern Appalachians around midnight Wednesday night. Temperatures ahead of the front on Wednesday will warm well into the 60s across all of Central NC, and will flirt with 70 across the southern half. Additionally, with the approach of the front, we will also see some breezy swly winds materialize by the late afternoon, but certainly by the evening, gusting into the upper teens. A 50 to 60kt LLJ racing out ahead of the system and underneath the entrance region of a 125-135kt jet streak moving into the Mid- Atlantic region will lead to rapid 1000-700mb moistening Wednesday evening/night, and bringing a quick moving band of low topped showers into the area after midnight. Due to fast-progressive nature of the system, qpf amounts will be light, generally a tenth of an or less. Lows Wednesday night ranging from mid to upper 40s NW to lower/mid 50 east.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 210 PM Monday... Behind this lead front, temperatures will cool to more seasonable/ average levels for the end of the week and weekend. The positive tilt configuration of the trough aloft will cause surface high pressure to sprawl into the SErn U.S. and suppress any additional precipitation chances until Sun-Mon, at which time a Nrn stream shortwave trough in NW flow aloft will amplify into the Middle Atlantic region and possibly support some degree of cyclogenesis over the Wrn Atlantic. At this time, it appears that a generally dry reinforcing cold frontal passage will result for our region, though the prospects of nearby coastal cyclogenesis will be worth watching in the coming days.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 1255 AM Tuesday... 24-Hour TAF period: Deep low pressure will move northeast, away from Central NC through the day on Tuesday. Very light rain on the back side of the departing low will overspread the Triad the next couple of hours, but precip is so light, NSW is expected. In the wake of the low pressure system, drier air will filter into the area from west. MVFR ceilings have already scattered out at KINT and KGSO. And we will see this trend continue from west to east between 06 to 12z. Breezy NWLY winds will develop everywhere by mid to late morning with sustained winds of 14 to 17kts, gusting to 25 to 30kt through the afternoon. Winds should decouple by the evening as surface ridge axis extends into the area from the south. Looking ahead: VFR conditions are expected through Wednesday. A cold front will cross the region late Wednesday night/early Thursday, bringing with a chance of showers and sub-VFR ceilings to the area. VFR conditions should return late Thursday afternoon/evening. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CBL NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...MWS AVIATION...CBL/SMITH

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