Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 300014 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 815 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY... CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. EVEN WITH EXTREMELY DRY AIR CURRENTLY IN PLACE (SINGLE DIGIT DEWPOINTS)...MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. LIFT WILL INCREASE AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST...ROUGHLY BETWEEN 09-16Z. POPS WILL QUICKLY DECREASE LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. QPF VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE RATHER LIGHT WITH ONLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE 30S BEFORE LEVELING OUT OR EVEN RISING A COUPLE OF DEGREES AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT INCREASES. THERE COULD BE A SHORT WINDOW WHEN TEMPS FALL TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW 35 DEGREES PARTICULARLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. HOWEVER... WITH INCREASING WINDS AND THE DRY AIR IN PLACE...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY WIDESPREAD FROST. IF WINDS DO DECOUPLE FOR A LONGER TIME FRAME...A SHORT FUSED FROST ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...THE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH UNTIL LATE MONDAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOW/MID 60S. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY... MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY... WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL NC IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING FRONTAL SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE APPROACH OF A DISTURBANCE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT MAY INITIATE A PERIOD OF OROGRAPHIC CIRRUS OVER OUR REGION BY EARLY TUESDAY. THE SURFACE FRONT AND WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL CROSS TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL SET-UP A LEE SIDE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE TO THIS LEE SIDE TROUGH AND THE APPROACHING SFC LOW. THE RESULTANT SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL AID TO BOOST TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. MIN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40. MAX TEMPS TUESDAY UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SFC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS CENTRAL NC PRETTY UNEVENTFUL AS ATMOSPHERE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT PRECIP GENERATION. BULK OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY TO OUR NORTH. 850MB THERMAL TROUGH DOES EXTEND SWD INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY WITH EFFECTS A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN VERSUS THE WESTERN-SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. MIN TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT MID-UPPER 40S. HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY LOW-MID 60S NE TO THE LOWER 70S SW. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 345 PM SUNDAY... THURSDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT...DEPICTING A WEAKENING MID LEVEL S/W IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM LIFTING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE SE U.S. MEANWHILE A S/W IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NEW ENGLAND...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT TOWARD CENTRAL NC BY THURSDAY NIGHT. BULK OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL LIKELY OCCUR MORE TO OUR WEST-SW...WITH SHOWER GENERATION DECREASING FARTHER EAST AS SYSTEM SHEARS OUT. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PULL WARM AIR INTO CENTRAL NC. THE MIXTURE OF SUN/CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD PERMIT TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE 70S AREAWIDE. IF SUN IS MORE PREVALENT THAN CLOUDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...COULD SEE TEMPS REACH/SLIGHTLY EXCEED 80 DEGREES OVER TEH SE HALF. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...SFC COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST-SE THROUGH THIS PERIOD...POSSIBLY EXITING OUR EASTERN COUNTIES BY MID DAY SATURDAY (BASED ON SLOWER GFS). APPEARS BULK OF SHOWERS FRIDAY WILL OCCUR WEST-NORTH OF CENTRAL NC...THOUGH INCREASING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT BY LATE IN THE DAY. SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD MAXIMIZE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY DEPENDENT ON SHOWER COVERAGE AND CLOUD THICKNESS. POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO REACH 80 AGAIN IN THE FAR SE FRIDAY AFTERNOON IF SHOWERS AND CLOUDS ARE DELAYED. SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FRIDAY IN THE FAR NORTH-NW DUE TO MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ANTICIPATED SATURDAY WITH SHOWER THREAT DIMINISHING NW- SE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. EASTER SUNDAY AT THIS TIME APPEARS DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NW. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 815 PM SUNDAY... CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR THEN IFR CONDITIONS MON MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON... WITH MVFR VSBYS IN A PERIOD OF RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW... BRINGING POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS FOR 4-6 HOURS... STARTING AROUND 12Z AT INT/GSO... AROUND 13Z-14Z AT RDU... AND AROUND 15Z-16Z AT RWI/FAY. IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR CIGS/VSBYS IS EXPECTED AROUND 16Z AT INT/GSO... AROUND 18Z AT RDU... AND AROUND 19Z-21Z AT FAY/RWI... AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. ANOTHER AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE STRENGTHENING WINDS IN THE 1200-1800 FT AGL LAYER... POTENTIALLY UP TO 40-50 KTS FROM THE SW. WHILE WE MAY NOT NECESSARILY MEET LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CRITERIA... WITH SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SW AT JUST 8-12 KTS... THE INCREASE IN WIND SPEED WITH HEIGHT MAY CAUSE MECHANICAL TURBULENCE AND DIFFICULTY HANDLING SOME AIRCRAFT. THESE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ARE MOST LIKELY IN THE 06Z-18Z TIME FRAME. LOOKING BEYOND 00Z TUE (EARLY MON EVENING)... VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH WED NIGHT... ALTHOUGH ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY WED MORNING CAUSING A SHIFT IN SURFACE WINDS. THE RETURN OF THIS FRONT FROM SW TO NE THROUGH THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT THU AFTERNOON/NIGHT MAY BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH A FEW SHOWERS. -GIH
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KRD/DJF NEAR TERM...KRD SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...WSS AVIATION...HARTFIELD

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