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000
FXUS62 KRAH 220031
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
831 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
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A mid to upper level trough will linger over the eastern Carolinas,
while weakening, through the end of the week. Surface high pressure
will otherwise extend south across the middle Atlantic states
through early next week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 313 PM Thursday...

A weak upper low/concentric vort max across eastern NC will drift
slowly eastward throughout the day and will eventually feed into the
broad upper trough extending SW from TC Jose off of the southern New
England Coast. The most concentrated area of showers and
thunderstorms clustered around Johnston, Wilson and Wayne counties
is coincident with the cold core low with H5 temps around -14C. Away
from the upper core, coverage will remain isolated to widely
scattered. Can`t rule out marginally severe hail ranging from dime
to quarter size along with the potential for one or two trees down
from the  collapse of a core. Otherwise, convection will fade with
loss of heating. Overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s, with the
potential for patchy fog in areas that see any appreciable rainfall
through the remainder of the evening.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 313 PM Thursday...

Sheared remnants of the weak upper level low will linger across
eastern NC as we begin to feel increasing influence of the strong
mid-upper level ridge centered from the southern Plains to the Great
Lake region. Can`t rule out an isolated shower/storm across the far
SE zones. Otherwise, it will be dry on Friday with persistence in
temperatures ranging from mid 80s NW to upper 80s SE. Lows in the
mid to upper 60s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 215 PM Thursday...

General troffing in the wake of Jose is pressed south as high
pressure over the Great Lakes ridges south and drier air builds in
for the upcoming weekend. This high pressure looks to remain over
the area through the extended, pending any westward deviation in the
forecast track of Maria, which is still progged to remain well
offshore. Mid to high cloudiness will spread westward across the
area Tuesday into Wednesday, with clearing by Thursday as Maria
continues to recurve northeast. An airmass change is finally on the
horizon, but slightly beyond this extended package...stay tuned as
next weekend`s forecast comes into focus. In the meantime, highs
will be in the mid to upper 80s, with morning lows mostly in the mid
60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 830 PM Thursday...

High pressure ridging south into NC will result in mainly VFR
conditions through the TAF period, although patchy fog will be
possible late tonight-early Fri morning, especially in areas that
received rain this past afternoon - most notably near RWI and RDU.

Outlook: Patchy radiation fog will be possible each morning, mainly
at RWI and FAY, with VFR conditions -under the influence of high
pressure centered north of our region- otherwise anticipated through
early next week.
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&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...MWS