Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 210601 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 201 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A mid to upper level trough will drift across the Carolinas today, then linger while weakening through the end of the week. Surface high pressure will otherwise ridge south across the middle Atlantic states for the next several days.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 945 PM Wednesday... Convection continues to linger across the forecast area as an upper level disturbance moves through. Some isolated thunderstorms have cropped up mainly across the Triangle and points south but there are also a few showers moving into the Triad area at this time. At this point in the evening all convection is expected to be short lived and of little consequence with the exception of some heavy rain and possible cloud to ground lightning. As activity continues to decrease, some clearing is expected to occur and MVFR visibilities will be possible during the early morning hours. Lows overnight in the middle 60s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 245 PM Wednesday... A vorticity disturbance will drift slowly eastward across eastern NC on Thursday, and will eventually feed into the broad upper trough extending SW from TC Jose off of the southern New England Coast. This feature will support an isolated to slight chance of weak/shallow convection, mainly across southern/southeastern portions of the area. H8 temps and low-level thickness drop off ever so slightly, so perhaps a degree or two cooler when compared to today, but still in the same ballpark with afternoon highs in the 85-90 degree range. Any convection will die off with loss of heating. Overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 257 PM Wednesday... Friday through Sunday will feature fair weather thanks to ridging to our north, and the flow assoc with this ridge resulting in a drying trend during that time. Thus we can expected decreasing clouds on Friday, then mainly clear skies for the weekend. Models also show subtle low level thickness decreasing trend during this same time, so expect temps in the low to mid 80s, rather than the mid to upper 80s that we`ll see in the near and short term periods. Lows in the 60s. Still quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the first half of next week related to the track and possible impacts with Hurricane Maria. Right now most models suggest that Maria will stay well to our east with little or no impacts on our weather across central NC Tuesday into Wednesday, other than perhaps a few passing showers on the far western periphery of the storm and perhaps a period of breezy conditions. However, there`s still plenty of time for things to change, so continue to stay tuned! && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 140 AM Thursday... 24 Hour TAF Period: VFR conditions are generally expected to continue through the 24 hour TAF period. However, another round of patchy sub-VFR visbys (mainly MVFR) will be possible this morning during the pre-dawn hours. Fog prone KRWI will stand the greatest chance of seeing any IFR/LIFR visbys. Any sub-VFR visbys are expected to quickly dissipate with sunrise. Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms will be possible again this afternoon across central NC, primarily across southern portions of the region as a slow moving mid to upper level trough crosses the region. However, confidence is too low to include any mention the the TAFs at this time. Outlook: Generally dry conditions are expected to continue late week through early next week across the area. However, patchy sub-VFR conditions in the pre-dawn hours may be possible each morning.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BSD/MWS NEAR TERM...Ellis SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...KC AVIATION...BSD

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