Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 231522 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1125 AM EDT Mon May 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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An upper level low will move across the area today, before tracking along the East Coast and away from the region on Tuesday. A strong upper level ridge will build over the Southeast through the remainder of the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /through tonight/...
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As of 1125 AM Monday... Minor tweaks made to the near term forecast. Have adjusted PoPs up over the northeast third of the CWA to account for patchy light rain through mid day/early afternoon. Otherwise expect scattered showers and a thunderstorm or two across the region from mid afternoon through sunset. Pesky upper level low has begun push to the east-northeast and on track to exit our region by late in the day and well offshore tonight. Spokes of vorticity will continue to pivot around this feature with one axis currently working its way across our northern counties. This feature will continue to progress south-southeast, possibly triggering additional shower development across the southern counties by mid afternoon. While a thunderstorm possible, parameters are not quite there for the potential for severe storms. The shear is too weak and instability even weaker. Temperatures this afternoon highly dependent upon extent of cloud coverage and showers. Where clouds are thickest/more prominent and potential for rain highest (ne third), temperatures in the 60s will be the rule. Where peeks of sunshine occur, temperatures should warm into the 70-75 degree range. Expect the warmest temperatures in the far south and southwest where mixture of sun/clouds expected. -WSS Height rise aloft and high pressure building in from the west will rapidly diminish precip coverage this evening, while skies slowly clear behind the departing upper trough. Lows in the low/mid 50s. -22
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&& .SHORT TERM /Tuesday and Tuesday Night/... As of 340 AM Monday... While the center of the mid/upper-level low will be in the process of lifting up the coast of the northern Middle Atlantic and Northeast...a couple of low amplitude impulses are forecast to wrap, in NW flow on the WSW periphery of the departing low, across eastern VA/NC through early-mid afternoon Tue. Residually steep mid-level lapse rates /6 to 6.5 C/KM/ over the NE Piedmont and Coastal Plain, and diurnal heating into the lower 80s, will contribute to perhaps a couple of hundred J/KG of MLCAPE there, where an isolated shower/sprinkle (POP of only 10-15 %) may occur before following strong height rises aloft and an associated subsidence inversion overspread the region. One more night in the 50s, to around 60 degrees, is expected in continued height rises in NW flow aloft Tue night. && .LONG TERM /Wednesday through Sunday/... As of 355 AM Monday... Increasingly hot, but mainly dry. Within a relatively highly amplified flow pattern consisting of a western CONUS trough and eastern CONUS ridge, a couple of low amplitude southern stream perturbations will migrate across the Middle Atlantic late Wed-Fri. These perturbations will get trapped and stretched in a deformation zone aloft between the center of a couple of sub-tropical highs over Mexico and offshore the SE U.S coast, and may contribute to the development of diurnal convection across the Appalachians and/or along the sea breeze in coastal areas during that time. While an associated shower or storm cannot entirely be ruled out even over central NC, a lack of any more appreciable focusing mechanism suggests that probability will be low. Temperatures will climb into the upper 80s to around 90 degrees mid-late week, with perhaps slightly cooler conditions owing to a slightly onshore component to the low level flow, this weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z Monday through Friday/... As of 650 AM Monday... The main aviation concern today is an area of low clouds moving south out of VA early this morning, which will impact areas east of KRDU through at least mid-morning. MVFR ceilings are most likely at KRWI, with a period of IFR and scattered showers possible. Showers will be more isolated to the west, especially west of KRDU, where cloud bases are more likely to be in the 3000-4000ft range. An 8- 12kt northerly wind will prevail for much of the day, becoming light and variable tonight as low pressure moves off the NC coast and VFR conditions return areawide. Long term: VFR conditions will be predominate this week as high pressure builds over the region. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...22 NEAR TERM...WSS/22 SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...22

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