Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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732 FXUS62 KRAH 091156 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 655 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING... OTHERWISE COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN EVEN COLDER ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY... AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS MORNING PER THE LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS. THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS DEVELOPING OVER WEST CENTRAL NC IN RESPONSE TO THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. RADAR INDICATED PATCHY VERY LIGHT RETURNS (RAIN) EXTENDING FROM ALBEMARLE TO CARTHAGE... MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARD THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT. WITH THE COLD AIR LAGGING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT... SURFACE DEW POINTS... SURFACE TEMPERATURES... AND CORRESPONDING WET BULB TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ALONG THIS LINE AND EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO THE AREAS THAT ARE IN LINE TO GET SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING. THEREFORE... WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING OR FORECASTING ANY TRAVEL ISSUES OR ASSOCIATED IMPACTS OF THE LIGHT RAIN. AREAS TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE TRIAD ARE COLDER... BUT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS THERE SHOULD BE ONLY A BRIEF FLURRY WITH NO ACCUMULATION. THE COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE EAST THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH CAA THIS AFTERNOON IN WESTERLY WINDS AT 10-20 MPH. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO TRACK OVER SOUTHERN VA AND NORTHEASTERN NC THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S... THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE COOLING ALOFT TO PRODUCE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THE CUMULUS FIELD THIS AFTERNOON WHERE IT BECOMES ENHANCED AT TIMES... ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE TRIANGLE. AS FOR P-TYPE (AGAIN NO IMPACT)... TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING... THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND WEB BULB PROFILES INDICATE THAT THERE WOULD LIKELY BE A MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET SHOWERS. STILL... NO IMPACT IS EXPECTED. ANY OF THE WIDELY SCATTERED OR ISOLATED SHOWERS WOULD BE BRIEF WITH ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS... AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY... COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FIRST MID/UPPER COLD TROUGH WILL MAXIMIZE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT. HOWEVER... THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON AGAIN WEDNESDAY. A PASSING FLURRY IS POSSIBLE. LOWS TONIGHT 20-25. HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S NORTH TO SOUTH. THE SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING BREEZES. LOWS 15-20 NORTH TO 20-25 SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY... ...A SECONDARY COLDER INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL DESCEND SOUTH INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND... THE COLD THERMAL TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOMALOUS EASTERN US TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING WHICH WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER CHILLY DAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 30S. HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RISE BRIEFLY LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE RELOADING OF THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH GETS UNDERWAY COURTESY OF A STRONG ARCTIC VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS SECONDARY INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BE EVEN COLDER THAN THE INITIAL EARLY/MID WEEK INSTALLMENT. ANCHORED BY A STRONG ~1040MB ARCTIC HIGH...TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH A GOOD CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES VALENTINES DAY WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER WITH A CLIPPER LIKE WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING WEAK SFC WAVE REFLECTION THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COULD ENOUGH ALOFT TO SUPPORT A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX. HOWEVER...GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE WITH NW FLOW EVENTS ALONG WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S...IMPACTS SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE. ARCTIC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING WARM MOIST ADVECTION INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. WITH ANTECEDENT POLAR AIRMASS IN PLACE...COLD AIR DAMMING COULD PRESENT MIXED P-TYPE CONCERNS ACROSS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT. && .AVIATION /12Z TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY... AREAS OF FOG HAVE LIFTED TO VFR CIGS/VSBYS. MIXING WILL ALLOW SURFACE WINDS TO INCREASE TO TO 10 TO 15 KT THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE... THE WESTERLY WINDS AND DEEP MIXING WILL INCREASE TO 10- 15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25KTS THIS AFTERNOON... WITH POSSIBLY SOME CIGS AT AROUND 4 TO 5 KFT ALONG WITH MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES THIS MORNING... AND FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON. NO VSBYS OR CIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. THEN VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. OUTLOOK...THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 KTS. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BADGETT NEAR TERM...BADGETT SHORT TERM...BADGETT LONG TERM...CBL AVIATION...BADGETT

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