Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 251923 RRA AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 320 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will push southeastward through central North Carolina, weakening as it pushes to the coast later today. A second cold front will sweep through the area on Tuesday, followed by high pressure that will persist across the region through the rest of the week. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 320 PM EDT Sunday... Current forecast pretty much on track. Sfc cold front continues to drift slowly sewd, and should exit our far southeast periphery by 21Z. Nwly sfc flow behind the front continues to filter drier more stable air across central NC, with mid afternoon in the low-mid 60s across the Piedmont, and the upper 60s elsewhere. This less humid air will continue to infiltrate central NC tonight. While the lower half of the atmosphere is drying out, swly flow aloft will maintain patchy mid-high level cloudiness though the night. May see a brief sprinkle or two across the region through midnight in association with the passing of a weak mid level shear axis. Min temps around 60 in the northwest to the upper 60s far southeast. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 320 PM EDT Sunday... Wly flow aloft will induce a weak lee-side sfc trough to develop Monday across the Piedmont. While this feature would normally aid to focus convective development this time of year, atmosphere Monday afternoon appears to be too dry and stable to support anything more than fair weather cumulus. Thus, will maintain a dry forecast. Temperatures will average a few degrees below normal for this time of year, ranging from the lower-middle 80s. The approach of a mid level s/w and attendant sfc front Monday night will keep the low level atmosphere stirred-up enough to prohibit full cooling potential. In addition, will likely see an increase in mid/high level cloudiness after midnight across the Piedmont. Min temps 60-65 && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 145 PM Sunday... A cooler airmass settles over the region Tuesday into Wednesday as the trough axis traverses the area. Latest model guidance continues to suggest that a broken line of showers and tstms may move across central NC Tuesday afternoon as the trough axis approaches and moves through. Wednesday will be rain free and little if any clouds. High pressure at the surface will move east of the region Thursday and Friday. Rain chances will be very low but temperatures and dew points will trend upward as a south to southwesterly low level flow resumes across the Carolinas. Southerly flow will further increase over the weekend in response to a short wave moving across the Great Lakes region and a surface front approaching the Appalachians. Rain chances will increase Saturday and Sunday as low level moisture and synoptic scale forcing increases. && .AVIATION /18Z Sunday through Friday/... As of 115 PM Sunday... VFR parameters expected across central NC through Monday night. A surface cold front will drift southeastward and exit central NC prior to sunset. West-northwest flow behind the exiting boundary will usher a drier and more stable air mass into the region. The arrival of this drier air mass will lead to decreasing cloudiness, particularly of the low level variety. A few sprinkles or light rain showers will occur through the evening hours as a weak upper disturbance passes overhead. VFR conditions anticipated Monday night through Friday. A few light rain showers and possibly brief instances of MVFR parameters may occur Tuesday as another upper disturbance and attendant surface cold front crosses overhead. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WSS NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...np/Franklin AVIATION...WSS

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