Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 191908 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 307 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weak upper level trough will move into the area on Wednesday and will linger while gradually dissipating through the end of the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
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As of 307 PM Tuesday... Expect mostly clear skies as the low level flow will back to a more west-nw direction, advecting a slightly drier air mass which should inhibit the formation of widespread low clouds and fog. Overnight temperatures mainly in the mid 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 307 PM Tuesday... A weak shortwave upper trough, comprised of several individual shortwaves that currently extend from the Ohio Valley SW into the Middle/Lower MS Valley will progress slowly ESE, moving into Central NC Wednesday afternoon and evening, before stalling out near the NC/SC late Wednesday night and Thursday. Limited by the lack of support/lift in the low-levels and the deep NWLY flow preceding the trough, convective coverage should be no greater than isolated to widely scattered Wednesday afternoon and evening, and largely driven by daytime heating. Weak deep layer shear of 10 kts or less coupled with MLCAPE values of 700 to 1500 MLCAPE will keep any convection sub-severe. The real story on Wednesday will be the return of near to 90 degree heat across central and southern portions of the state as low-level thicknesses and H8 temps increase to 1420-1425 meters and 17-18 C respectively. This should support highs a full category warmer than today, with highs ranging 85 to 90. Lows in the mid to upper 60s.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 235 PM Tuesday... Lingering troffing in the wake of Jose across the Carolinas will be pushed slowly south Thursday and Friday. This will potentially produce scattered showers across the southern tier of central NC during peak heating, during which highs will reach mid and upper 80s with perhaps some very low 90s. A surge of drier and modestly cooler air will advect south (hard to call it a front) late in the day Friday, cooling temperatures back to the low and mid 80s and lowering the chance of precipitation to the single digits through the weekend. This pleasant airmass will remain in place, reinforced by low level flow veering gradually northeast as Maria lifts up the Atlantic coast. Maria`s official track does not bring the storm near enough to produce any sensible weather impacts to central NC other than perhaps some gustiness and bands of showers into the Coastal Plain Tuesday. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 140 PM Tuesday... Low-level flow will become increasingly westerly this evening and overnight, which will inhibit the formation of widespread low clouds and fog overnight. The exception will be at fog-prone sites like KRWI. Isolated to widely scattered showers and possibly a few storms will accompany an upper level disturbance moving into the area Wednesday afternoon. Coverage/pops are expected to be too low to mention in TAFS at this time. Beyond 24 hours: Additional showers and isolated thunderstorms may occur Thursday and into Friday as the disturbance stalls across the region. Low-level easterly flow could support widespread fog/stratus across the area late Thursday night/Friday morning. Otherwise, dry VFR conditions are expected through the weekend.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CBL NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...mlm AVIATION...CBL

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