Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 310526 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 125 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING... SETTLING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1034 PM THURSDAY... A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS DEVELOPED JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER AND JUST EAST OF THE TRIAD REGION. THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY HOLD TOGETHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH CENTRAL NC...DISSIPATING AND/OR MOVING SE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE. BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT CLEARING AND DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...BUT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM LOW 70S NW TO MID 70S SE. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 400 PM THURSDAY... NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREV FORECAST THINKING...THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL NEAR THE COAST WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE FAR ENOUGH TO OUR EAST TO PRECLUDE THE RISK FOR RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA. HOWEVER...SINCE EVEN A SLIGHT NORTHWARD ERROR IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT/MOISTURE COULD MEAN A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FAR SE ZONES...SO HAVE OPTED TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS SAMPSON COUNTY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE REST OF CENTRAL NC EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY DURING THIS TIME. ONLY A SMALL DROP IN THICKNESSES IS FORECAST...SO HIGHS WILL STILL BE AROUND NORMAL...89-94. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 1200 PM THURSDAY... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH THE RIDGE UNDERGOING FURTHER AMPLIFYING OVER THE ROCKIES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. DOWNSTREAM IN THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC...PERSISTING TROUGHING /CYCLONIC FLOW/ ALOFT WILL PREVAIL. THOUGH NUMEROUS SMALL AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES /SHORTWAVES/ WILL NO DOUBT BE PRESENT IN THIS AMPLIFIED PATTERN... THE BULK OF NORTH CAROLINA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG/WEST THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR (OR PERHAPS INSUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT) DIURNAL CONVECTION...EXCEPT IN EASTERN/COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS. WILL MAKE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST INDICATING HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S...LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S...AND DIURNAL PRECIP CHANCES CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE SE COASTAL PLAIN. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN (RIDGE/TROUGH AXES) OVER THE LOWER 48 WOULD RESULT IN INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC...PARTICULARLY ALONG/EAST OF HWY 1... THOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS APPARENT AT THIS TIME. -VINCENT && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 125 AM FRIDAY... ABOVE-NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING AT CENTRAL NC TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COOL FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL NC HAS MOVED JUST SE OF THE TRIAD TERMINALS... AND WITH THE DRIER POST-FRONT AIR PUSHING IN... INT/GSO ARE LIKELY TO SEE LITTLE MORE THAN SCT VFR CLOUDS (POSSIBLY BECOMING BKN BRIEFLY FRI AFTERNOON) AND UNRESTRICTED VSBYS. AT RDU/RWI... ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS PERSIST AHEAD OF AND WITH THE FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING MAY PRODUCE BRIEF (LASTING LESS THAN ONE HR) MVFR OR IFR VSBYS AND/OR MVFR CIGS 06Z-11Z THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD... ALTHOUGH GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THIS MORNING AT FAY MAY RESULT IN MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT FOG JUST BEFORE AND AROUND DAYBREAK. LATER THIS AFTERNOON... FAY WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY COMBINED WITH AN INLAND-MOVING SEA BREEZE. THESE SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IF THEY DEVELOP NEAR FAY THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING BEYOND 06Z FRIDAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING AT ALL CENTRAL NC TERMINALS THROUGH TUE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS THE STALLED FRONT COULD BRING BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS/STORMS TO FAY SAT AFTERNOON. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...RAH SHORT TERM...RAH LONG TERM...VINCENT AVIATION...HARTFIELD

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