Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 230512 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 110 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1015 PM TUESDAY... PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND MID LEVEL TROUGH HAS EXITED THE PIEDMONT. BAND OF SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE TROUGH AS IT ENTERED THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AT MID AFTERNOON DISSIPATED AS IT ENCOUNTERED A MUCH DRIER MORE STABLE AIR MASS. SFC COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND SHOULD ENTER THE NW PIEDMONT PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. THIS SFC FEATURE SHOULD PROGRESS SEWD QUICKLY...EXITING OUR SE COUNTIES BY 2-3 AM. LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER DRIER COOLER AIR INTO CENTRAL NC INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20KTS OVERNIGHT THOUGH THE STRONGER GUSTS AROUND 25KTS SHOULD OCCUR AFTER DAYBREAK. THE NW FLOW COUPLED WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH WILL AID TO DISSIPATE/DIMINISH CLOUD COVER. EXPECT CLEARING TREND NOW OCCURRING IN THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN PIEDMONT TO SPREAD EWD OVERNIGHT. FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE TO RAISE OVERNIGHT TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES. TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOWED TO COOL THIS EVENING AND THIS TREND SUGGEST THAT MIN TEMPS MAY END UP BEING A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. MIN TEMPS UPPER 40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 207 PM TUESDAY... ...SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR POTENTIAL WEATHER HAZARDS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... RATHER WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT. STRONG COOL AND DRY ADVECTION WILL BE DRIVEN BY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THIS DRYING PROCESS ALONG WITH THE WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED MAY LEAD TO A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 MPH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH BECOMES POSITIONED OVERHEAD LATE. A RATHER QUICK RETURN SW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY (BUT WITH MUCH LESS VELOCITY 8-12 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON). THIS INFORMATION WILL BE COLLABORATED WITH THE FORESTRY OFFICIALS. OTHERWISE... TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW THE 30 YEAR NORMALS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SENSIBLE WEATHER... SUNNY AND WINDY WEDNESDAY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S (SE). CLEAR AND CHILLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD THURSDAY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S NE TO MID 50S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 140 PM TUESDAY... TRAILING END OF A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY. MOISTURE ADVECTION IS MINIMAL WITH LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GULF...BUT DIURNAL TIMING WILL BE FAVORABLE...WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 80...TO PRODUCE RESPECTABLE INSTABILITY (CAPES >1000J) WHICH WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION. FRONT REACHES THE COAST EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONVECTION WILL DIE OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR. MINS WILL REMAIN MILD...IN THE MID 50S. SATURDAY WE WILL REMAIN MILD...NEAR 80 AGAIN...DUE TO WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A STRONGER...BUT DRY...BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE PRESSED SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE BY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINATING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SETTLES SOUTH DOWN THE EAST COAST. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL STALL IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EVOLUTION AND DETAILS OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHETHER WE LOCK IN THE COOL AIR AND GET SOME OVERRUNNING OR WHETHER ITS SCOURED OUT AND WE WARM UP SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY. REGARDLESS...THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WILL INTRODUCE IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AND LET THE FORECAST EVOLVE. WILL MAINTAIN HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 70S. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 110 AM WEDNESDAY... A COLD FRONT NOW MOVING INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS FROM THE WNW WILL SWEEP ESE THROUGH CENTRAL NC EARLY THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT... WHERE THE SURFACE HUMIDITY LEVELS REMAIN HIGH... THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING... PRIOR TO 08Z AT INT/GSO... 09Z AT RDU/RWI... AND BEFORE 10Z AT FAY. AFTER THESE TIMES... HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT... WITH FEW TO NO CLOUDS AND NO FURTHER RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. OF SOME CONCERN HOWEVER IS THE SHIFT OF WINDS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE... TO NORTHWESTERLY AT ALL SITES (FROM NW TO SE) 07Z-10Z. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 12-16 KTS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KTS FROM DAYBREAK THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY CAUSE CROSSWIND PROBLEMS AT GSO/RDU/RWI/FAY TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOON AFTER 22Z. LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY THU MORNING: CONTINUED VFR THROUGH THU EVENING WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL NC. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW THU NIGHT... BRINGING WINDS FROM THE SW AND A GOOD CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS... WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR FRI MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORM FROM FRI MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH BY FRI EVENING... WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW... BRINGING LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND. -GIH
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&& .FIRE WEATHER /WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING/... AS OF 207 PM TUESDAY... INCREASED FIRE DANGER FOR WEDNESDAY ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 20 MPH WILL GUST TO 30 BEHIND A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 25 PERCENT CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FINE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL DRY OUT. IN COORDINATION WITH WAKEFIELD AND BLACKSBURG - AND THE FORESTRY OFFICIALS... WE WILL ISSUE AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR WEDNESDAY. .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...BADGETT LONG TERM... MLM AVIATION...HARTFIELD FIRE WEATHER...BADGETT

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