Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KRAH 251507 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1107 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH MID-WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 1100 AM MONDAY... A PRONOUNCED SFC RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW /AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION/ WILL BE CONFINED TO LOCATIONS ALONG/WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFT/EVE. TONIGHT...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /WARM ADVECTION/ AND AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR DPVA ATTENDANT SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVES IN NEWLY ESTABLISHED SW FLOW ALOFT MAY ALLOW ELEVATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE FOOTHILLS AND PERHAPS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH OVERALL CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG/WEST OF I-77. EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...WARMEST IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. -VINCENT
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY... FORMIDABLE MID-UPPER LEVEL UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS MORE SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS RETURN ON TUESDAY OWING TO THE RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/HUMIDITY...AND SUBSEQUENT STRONGER DESTABILIZATION INSTABILITY ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING SFC RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE. THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND FTHLS...FUELED BY AN UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. HOWEVER THE THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK SUPPORT ALOFT IN THE FORM OF WEAK DPVA ATTENDANT TO A SHEARED SHORTWAVE ENERGY JUSTIFIES SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...AND QUITE POSSIBLY INTO THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON...IF THE OVER-ZEALOUS GFS IS TO BE BELIEVED. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST OF US 1. WHILE IT FEEL WARMER DUE TO RISING HUMIDITY...TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY. HIGHS 83-87...WARMEST ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 245 AM MONDAY... WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: NOT MANY CHANGES IN THE LONG TERM AS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER THE AREA FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. RETURN FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL STAGNATE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. MODELS ARE WAVERING WITH JUST HOW FAR EAST PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT WITH THE FAVORED SOLUTIONS CENTERING AROUND THE ENSEMBLES AND A NOD TO THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION WHICH HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE GFS IS A WET OUTLIER...DUE TO FURTHER EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ANY LACK OF FORCING OR JET SUPPORT...WHICH WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST. THEREFORE HAVE BEEN HESITANT TO REALLY UP THE POPS AND QPF FORECASTS TOO MUCH. THAT BEING SAID...THE BEST POPS WILL BE IN THE WEST EACH DAY WITH WED...THU...AND FRI...ALL HAVING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT LEAST IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SOME CONVECTION LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR THE WEEKEND THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO REALLY BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA AND THUS A DECREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN. HAVE BACKED THE FORECAST OFF TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTHWEST WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FURTHER EAST. MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND APPROACHING 90 DEGREES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. LOWS CONSISTENTLY IN THE MID 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 1100 AM MONDAY... 24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING...06-15Z TUE... IN ASSOC/W THE ONSET OF A MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW /WARM ADVECTION/. ANY LOW CEILINGS THAT DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WILL LIFT TO HIGH-END MVFR OR VFR BY LATE TUE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. LOOKING AHEAD: CHANCES FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS (MVFR/IFR CEILINGS) AND SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL INCREASE THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ADVECTS AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTO THE CAROLINAS. -VINCENT
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...VINCENT NEAR TERM...VINCENT SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...ELLIS AVIATION...VINCENT

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.