Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 220758 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 258 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to ridge west into the Mid-Atlantic as the center remains offshore. A slow-moving upper level trough will cross the Southeast and Mid Atlantic states through tonight. An upper level ridge will again briefly build over the eastern U.S. Thursday and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 240 AM Wednesday... Low pressure over the Mississippi River valley will slide southeast over the eastern Gulf of Mexico today and over Florida tonight. The bulk of the rainfall associated with that system will remain well south of Central NC. However, increasing southeasterly return flow into the area from both the high offshore and the aforementioned low over the Gulf, combined with the diffuse diffuse trough aloft moving over the region, will result in the development of showers across the west, possibly lasting into the early afternoon. Temperatures this morning will be a bit atypical with around 50 degrees in the west and mid 40s in the east. The increasing southeasterly flow advecting warm Atlantic air into the region will yield highs in the low to mid 70s across the southeast. With the lingering light rain and clouds across the west, highs are only expected to get into the low 60s, however should clouds and rain clear out earlier, the highs could be several degrees higher. Lows tonight in the upper 40s NW to low 50s SE. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 255 AM Wednesday... The low over Florida will migrate eastward then northeastward over the Atlantic on Thursday/Thursday night, allowing the upper level ridge to once again set up over the southeast U.S. Thursday Night. The surface high will move eastward, though will continue to ridge into the Mid-Atlantic, keeping the surface low suppressed to the southeast. The best chance for any light rain will be over the far west early Thursday, but then the far southeast late Thursday and Thursday night. For now will keep the forecast dry as the models are having a tough time generating any rain over Central NC. Given the continued influx of warm air into the region, expect another day of temperatures well above normal, highs in the 70s and lows in the mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 PM Tuesday... Thursday is starting to look pretty dry as a low pressure system moves across the Florida Peninsula and into the Atlantic. A low pressure system to the west is slower to develop then model solutions showed over the last several iterations. This leaves central NC in a moisture gap for much of the end of the work week with both Thursday and Friday looking drier and fairly warm with highs in the low to mid 70s on Thursday and in the mid to upper 70s on Friday. As the parent low makes its way to the Great Lakes region it will push a cold front eastward over the Appalachians and into central NC on Saturday/Saturday evening. The tail end of the moisture moves across the state with northern areas of the forecast area more likely to get rain than southern areas. QPF looks very meager on the raw model output but there will be some instability around and if some showers or thunderstorms were to form some areas could locally see up to a half of an inch of rain but this is likely to be the exception rather than the rule. Thus not as much help to the abnormally dry situation as we had hoped. While Saturday will still be warm ahead of the front with temps in the mid to upper 70s, the airmass does modify on Sunday and high temps drop back near 60 degrees which is much closer to normal this time of year. Temperatures will modify back through the 60s on Monday and back towards the 70s on Tuesday with dry conditions expected. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 100 AM Wednesday... 24-Hour TAF period: Somewhat of a low-confidence TAF forecast the next 24 hours. However, the expectation is for fog/low stratus to develop across the east around 08-10Z and in the north and west around 09-12Z. Cigs could drop into the LIFR range though visbys are expected to remain MVFR or VFR. The duration of sub-vfr cigs and the extent of improvement beyond the 12-15Z time frame is variable across the area, but expect the best chance for and greatest improvement to be at KFAY and KRWI. KINT and KGSO could remain MVFR through late in the TAF period. The best chance for light rain will also be at KINT and KGSO through the overnight and into early Wednesday afternoon. The greatest uncertainty/variability will likely be at KRDU, but will keep the trend there closer to that of KFAY and KRWI for now. Looking ahead: With continued southeast flow through Friday, the early-morning sub-VFR cigs and visbys will likely be a reoccurring theme. Low clouds may scatter out enough during the daytime hours for a return to VFR. Winds will slowly veer through the period ahead of the approaching cold front. Showers and sub-vfr conditions will also be possible ahead of the front, which is expected to move through Central NC on late Saturday. A return to VFR conditions is expected for Saturday night/Sunday. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KC/Hartfield NEAR TERM...KC SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...ELLIS AVIATION...KC is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.