Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 310559 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 159 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING... SETTLING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1034 PM THURSDAY... A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS DEVELOPED JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER AND JUST EAST OF THE TRIAD REGION. THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY HOLD TOGETHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH CENTRAL NC...DISSIPATING AND/OR MOVING SE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE. BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT CLEARING AND DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...BUT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM LOW 70S NW TO MID 70S SE. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 200 AM FRIDAY... A STAGNANT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A SLIGHTLY DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND NEAR STATIONARY RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. DURING THIS PERIOD A WEAK SURFACE HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP CONDITIONS RELATIVELY DRY. TO THE NORTH...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM STRETCHING SOUTHWARD...WILL IMPINGE UPON THE SURFACE HIGH BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM... HELPING TO WEAKEN THE HIGH BUT SHOULD STILL REMAIN DRY IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. THE ONLY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME IN THE FORM OF POTENTIAL DIURNAL CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST WHERE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL BRING INCREASED MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WHICH COULD USE THE SEA BREEZE FRONT AS A CATALYST FOR CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. REGARDLESS...THE AIRMASS AS A WHOLE WILL BE VERY DRY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES VERY LOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S NW TO LOW 70S SE. DEWPOINTS WILL MODERATE FROM THE LOWER 60S ON SUNDAY TO MID TO UPPER 60S BY MONDAY...RESULTING IN AND OVERALL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 200 AM FRIDAY... TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS OUT AND BECOMES MORE ZONAL AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES GRADUALLY NORTH AND EASTWARD. THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE FORCING ALOFT TO HELP ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION THAT MAY FORM...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD SET UP AS THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES EASTWARD. THE AIRMASS WILL STILL BE VERY DRY WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR AND IN WITH THE ABSENCE OF ANY NOTABLE SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY...EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DECREASE GOING INTO THURSDAY AS A POTENT WAVE COMING OUT OF THE MIDWEST MOVES EASTWARD AND HELPS TO REINVIGORATE THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER SURFACE LOW IN EASTERN CANADA. MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING AT THIS STAGE WITH THE EUROPEAN COMING IN SLOWER THAN THE GFS BUT THE MESSAGE IS THE SAME. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT SOME POINT ON THURSDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE FAIRLY WEAK AT THIS POINT BUT WITH THE EXTRA FORCING FROM THE WAVE...IT WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY TO SEE A WET MICROBURST OR TWO...ESPECIALLY IF TIMING SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS AND COMES IN AT PEAK HEATING...WHEN THE SPREAD BETWEEN TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT IS MAXIMIZED. WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER LIKELY...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO DROP BACK TO THE LOW 90S WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW 70S.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 125 AM FRIDAY... ABOVE-NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING AT CENTRAL NC TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COOL FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL NC HAS MOVED JUST SE OF THE TRIAD TERMINALS... AND WITH THE DRIER POST-FRONT AIR PUSHING IN... INT/GSO ARE LIKELY TO SEE LITTLE MORE THAN SCT VFR CLOUDS (POSSIBLY BECOMING BKN BRIEFLY FRI AFTERNOON) AND UNRESTRICTED VSBYS. AT RDU/RWI... ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS PERSIST AHEAD OF AND WITH THE FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING MAY PRODUCE BRIEF (LASTING LESS THAN ONE HR) MVFR OR IFR VSBYS AND/OR MVFR CIGS 06Z-11Z THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD... ALTHOUGH GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THIS MORNING AT FAY MAY RESULT IN MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT FOG JUST BEFORE AND AROUND DAYBREAK. LATER THIS AFTERNOON... FAY WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY COMBINED WITH AN INLAND-MOVING SEA BREEZE. THESE SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IF THEY DEVELOP NEAR FAY THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING BEYOND 06Z FRIDAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING AT ALL CENTRAL NC TERMINALS THROUGH TUE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS THE STALLED FRONT COULD BRING BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS/STORMS TO FAY SAT AFTERNOON. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...RAH SHORT TERM...ELLIS LONG TERM...ELLIS AVIATION...HARTFIELD

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