Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 240555 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1255 AM EST Tue Jan 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A deep low pressure system will lift northeast up the northern Mid Atlantic coast today, reaching the New England coast tonight. High pressure will then influence the region through midweek. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1030 PM Monday... Multiple layer of moisture and cloudiness were lingering over our region due to the slow movement of the mid/upper low on the coast. Western and central NC were now on the subsidence side of the system and with the continued downslope flow as well behind the departing low, cloudiness will begin to erode from the lee of the mountains later tonight. In addition, a band of light showers will continue to affect the Yadkin Valley for a few hours, otherwise the rain is finished with this storm for our region. The cold front has already pushed south of the region and the CAA has begun. Winds have become northerly and this will drive the cool air in. The temperatures will fall into the 35-40 range north and 40-45 south overnight. Some gustiness with the CAA initially may reach 20 mph, but overall the trend will be for winds to decrease to 10 mph or less overnight. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 250 PM Monday... Ridging aloft will develop behind the departing low on Tuesday, with cold advection easing up through the day. Skies will have generally cleared, but forecast soundings suggest some scattered cu during the afternoon and wind gusts to near 20kt. prefer a blend of MOS for highs, 59-62 and coolest northeast where cold advection lasts longest. Relatively mild high pressure will nose in from the south Tuesday night before quickly retreating ahead of the next cold front. Lows 38-42 && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 210 PM Monday... A transition from mild conditions to more seasonable, but generally dry ones, will occur during the medium range. Ridging aloft will crest over the Ern U.S. on Wed, then move offshore in advance of a broad, positive tilt longwave trough that will migrate Ewd and encompass the Ern two thirds of Ern North America by the weekend. A surface cold front --one related to the lead shortwave trough that will initiate the Ewd progression of the longwave trough, and which will trail a parent surface cyclone that will migrate NEwd across the Great Lakes-- will settle across NC late Wed night-Thu. Both moisture and lift are forecast to be limited, as the parent forcing lifts to our NW, so rainfall chances and amounts are likewise expected to be limited. Behind this lead front, temperatures will cool to more seasonable/ average levels for the end of the week and weekend. The positive tilt configuration of the trough aloft will cause surface high pressure to sprawl into the SErn U.S. and suppress any additional precipitation chances until Sun-Mon, at which time a Nrn stream shortwave trough in NW flow aloft will amplify into the Middle Atlantic region and possibly support some degree of cyclogenesis over the Wrn Atlantic. At this time, it appears that a generally dry reinforcing cold frontal passage will result for our region, though the prospects of nearby coastal cyclogenesis will be worth watching in the coming days. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 1255 AM Tuesday... 24-Hour TAF period: Deep low pressure will move northeast, away from Central NC through the day on Tuesday. Very light rain on the back side of the departing low will overspread the Triad the next couple of hours, but precip is so light, NSW is expected. In the wake of the low pressure system, drier air will filter into the area from west. MVFR ceilings have already scattered out at KINT and KGSO. And we will see this trend continue from west to east between 06 to 12z. Breezy NWLY winds will develop everywhere by mid to late morning with sustained winds of 14 to 17kts, gusting to 25 to 30kt through the afternoon. Winds should decouple by the evening as surface ridge axis extends into the area from the south. Looking ahead: VFR conditions are expected through Wednesday. A cold front will cross the region late Wednesday night/early Thursday, bringing with a chance of showers and sub-VFR ceilings to the area. VFR conditions should return late Thursday afternoon/evening. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...Badgett SHORT TERM...SMITH LONG TERM...MWS AVIATION...CBL/SMITH is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.