Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 221935 RRA AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 235 PM EST Wed Feb 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to ridge west into the Mid-Atlantic as the center remains offshore. A slow-moving upper level trough will cross the Southeast and Mid Atlantic states through tonight. An upper level ridge will again briefly build over the eastern U.S. Thursday and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 235 PM Wednesday... Closed southern-stream low over the northern GOM will move east- southeastward across southern Florida and the Keys late tonight through early Thursday. With the system suppressed well to our south, weak forcing via weak upglide and weak DPVA will support ample cloudiness, but very little in the form of rain in the form of patchy rain/isolated showers for the remainder of the day and into the evening. In-situ wedge in place across the NW Pied that developed in response to the batch of light precip that moved earlier this morning and that will likely be sustained by stratus cloud cover within the weak upslope flow will result in a rather NW to SE temperature gradient, ranging from upper 50s/lower 60s NW to mid 70s SE. Skies will remain mostly cloudy overnight, which will support another mild night under light southerly flow. Lows 50 to 55. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 235 PM Wednesday... Strengthening synoptic scale subsidence with a mid to upper level ridge building into the area in the wake of the closed low moving off the Florida coast will give way to increasing sunshine throughout the day. Weak sely onshore flow will prove of little consequence as enhanced mid-level moisture stream moves offshore while remaining capped aloft. Thus, will keep forecast dry. With the erosion of the in-situ wedge across the NW Piedmont, the warmth that central and eastern sections experienced today will spread to all of central NC on Thursday. A projected 10 meter low-level thickness increase will support highs ranging from lower 70s NW to upper 70s SE, which will approach record territory(see climate records below). Lows in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 310 AM Wednesday... Our weather pattern through this period displays little deviation from the theme of this winter with above normal temperatures interrupted by brief cool periods, and below normal precipitation. A s/w ridge will extend across the region Friday while a sfc high will be positioned offshore. The low level sly flow advecting a warm air mass into central NC, coupled with warming aloft attributed to the mid/upper level ridge will spell well above normal temperatures Friday afternoon. The partial sunshine and a warm sw flow will boost temperatures into the 75-80 degree range, a solid 20-25 degrees above normal for late February. These readings will be just shy of record levels which are near 80-lower 80s (see CLIMATE section below for the details). The narrow mid-upper ridge will drift offshore Friday night in advance of a s/w crossing the Great Lakes. The deepening sw flow will result in very mild overnight conditions and a gradual increase in cloud coverage. Overnight temperatures will average several degrees above the normal high temps. Min temps in the 55-60 degree range anticipated. The s/w well to our north will drive a sfc cold front across central NC on Saturday. A marginally moist and a conditionally, slightly unstable, air mass should support the development of scattered showers, and possibly a thunderstorm across the coastal plain Saturday afternoon. The support aloft will be weakening with time and the model trend has been toward the atmosphere drying out with time. So while there is still the potential for a few showers, some locations will not see any rainfall, especially south of highway 64. Southwest flow ahead of the front coupled with the warm start to the day should yield high temps back into the mid-upper 70s, warmest southeast. The cold front will sweep east across the region late Saturday and Saturday evening, ending the threat for showers and skies clearing west-to-east fairly quick. temps will cool rapidly Saturday night reaching into the mid-upper 30s across the Piedmont by early Sunday, and the lower 40s southeast. High pressure will build and settle over the region Sunday-Monday with clear-partly cloudy skies and cooler, but still slightly above normal, temperatures anticipated. The cool down will be brief as temps Sunday in the 50s to around 60 will rebound back into the low- mid 60s Monday. The chilliest night should be Sunday night with overnight temps in the mid-upper 30s expected. May see lows near 30 in the normally colder locations. A weakening upper disturbance in the southern stream will approach from the west Monday night and Tuesday, leading to increasing clouds and a small threat for light rain. The mild/warm temperatures will persist. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1 PM Wednesday... 24-Hour TAF period: Weak southerly upglide, enhanced by an upslope component at KINT and KGSO will support low end VFR with brief periods of MVFR possible through 21z. Elsewhere, VFR ceilings should prevail. Winds at KINT and KGSO will generally be light and variable , while all remaining taf sites should see light south-southeasterly winds. With continued weak advection of warm moist air in the southerly flow, we could see some patchy fog/low stratus develop between 06Z and 12Z Thursday, especially at KINT and KGSO where lift will be orographically enhanced. Strong daytime heating should burn-off any fog that develops. Winds will remain light and from the south- southeast. Looking ahead: Aside from some early morning fog/stratus, expect predominately VFR conditions through early next week. The exception will be a very isolated/small chance of a shower or thunderstorm as a cold front moves through the area Saturday afternoon. Winds will become breezy Saturday afternoon as the front approaches from the west, with sustained winds between 15 to 20kts, gusting 25 to 30 kts. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures February 23rd February 24th February 25th GSO 73/1980 79/1982 81/1930 RDU 79/1980 81/1982 82/1930 FAY 80/1922 83/1930 85/1930 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KC/Hartfield NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...WSS AVIATION...CBL CLIMATE...RAH

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