Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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171 FXUS62 KRAH 172306 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 705 PM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A trough of low pressure at the surface will extend across the Piedmont of Virginia south into the Carolinas through Friday. A cold front will move across the area from the west late Friday into Saturday and then stall along the Carolina coast on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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As of 705 PM Thursday... Scattered convection has helped to lower temperatures in the upper 70s and 80s, mainly across sections of the coastal plain and Sandhills. Across the western Piedmont, where the convection has been limited, temperatures this evening will gradually lower through the mid-upper 80s. The bulk of the convection has dissipated and this trend will continue through the evening. A band of convection currently exiting the foothills, may advance as far east as the Yadkin River west of Lexington, before dissipating. The humid air mass will result in overnight temperatures in the mid- upper 70s. Little adjustment required to the near term forecast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 PM Thursday... Short wave ridging across the Carolinas will give way to falling heights as a short wave trough dives from the upper Midwest into the Ohio Valley by late friday night. The associated cold front will approach the southern Appalachians friday morning and then move across central NC Friday night reaching the coastal region of the Carolinas on Saturday morning. Another convectively active day is expected on Friday with widely scattered showers and storms expected to develop around midday, especially across the eastern Piedmont and Coastal Plain. Some of the higher resolution convection allowing models suggest that the majority of the convection will be attendant to the surface front and will move into the RAH CWA from the west late in the afternoon and then move southeast across the area during the evening. It will remain humid on Friday with dew points in the lower to mid 70s which combined with highs of 89 to 95 will result in heat index values of 100-105. Dew points today over performed and were in the upper 70s across the Coastal Plain and if that occurs again, a heat advisory would be needed. Will hold off for now and defer to the mid shift to issue any headlines. -Blaes && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 341 PM Thursday... A short wave trough axis will cross the area during the day and evening Saturday, thus a few scattered showers may reform along the stalled front near the coast...so best chance for rain on Saturday and Saturday evening will be east of I-95. Any showers over our area should end shortly after sunset with dry conditions Saturday night. Sunday looks mostly dry as ridging aloft to our south begins to build northward over our area. Then for Monday, the forecast has been trending better the past few model runs, regarding cloud coverage and rain chances, although we`re keeping an eye on the weak short wave in the westerly flow aloft, which both the GFS and ECMWF suggest will pass by mostly to our north, but heights over us do trend down during the day. For now will hold cloud coverage around 50% with PoPs slightly below climo...20-30% during the afternoon Monday. The pattern for the rest of the long term period will feature a deepening through over the East, so look for mostly diurnal chance PoPs each day Tue-Thu. Temps Sat-Mon will run a couple degrees above normal with a building ridge, then falling back to or below normal mid-late next week with the deepening trough. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 310 PM Thursday... Scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Piedmont and Coastal Plain early this afternoon will drift slowly east resulting in areas of adverse aviation conditions. Local MVFR to possible IFR restrictions with reduced vsbys and cigs are expected through the early evening impacting the KRDU terminal and especially the KFAY and KRWI terminals. Additional showers and storms are likely to move east from the mountains this afternoon into the western Piedmont this evening resulting in possible restrictions at the KINT and KGSO terminals. Convective coverage and intensity should wane during the overnight but the potential for a few showers or isolated storm will persist. Another round of MVFR fog and stratus is possible again overnight although guidance is less bullish on this than previous days. Light south to southwest winds at 3 to 6kts are expected tonight with southwesterly winds at 5 to 10kts are expected on Friday. Low level flow will increase tonight atop the surface inversion with a southwest wind at 25kts will approach LLWS criteria across the Sandhills with a weaker flow and shear to the north and west. Looking beyond 18Z Friday...Scattered showers and storms are expected on Friday afternoon and evening, ahead of an approaching cold front. The front will shift southeast on Saturday and Sunday with the scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms focused near KFAY. -Blaes && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...BLAES NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...BLAES LONG TERM...NP AVIATION...BLAES

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