Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 271654 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1255 PM Sat EDT May 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A surface trough will be located over the Piedmont this afternoon through Sunday. An upper level disturbance will cross the region this afternoon and early evening, followed by another disturbance Sunday afternoon. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
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As of 1255 PM Saturday... A 40-50kt westerly flow in the mid levels is in place from the mid- Mississippi valley east across NC/VA. At the surface, surface dew points are in the lower 60s. With ample sunshine, temperatures are expected to peak in the upper 80s to around 90F resulting in MLCapes on the order of 2000+ J/KG. A shortwave moving thourhg KY/TN will support the development of scattered thunderstorms after 21Z and mainly over the northern Piedmont. Latest model trends have the storms moving east-southeastward, crossing much of central NC from 22Z Sat to 06Z Sun. Considering the expected favorable elevated mixed layer (EML) and the degree of instability expected, some of the thunderstorms may contain damaging wind and hail expected. After the evening thunderstorms move by, areas to our west will have to be watched in the fast flow aloft as storms upstream may be able to make it east of the Mountains, albeit in a weaker state, toward daybreak due to the lingering instability and strong steering flow. Lows tonight will be in the mid 60s to near 70.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 244 AM Saturday... Isolated severe storms possible Sunday afternoon and evening. While the main focus for severe convection may be more over Tennessee/Kentucky, a few storms or even short lines of storms may cross the Mountains and develop SE of the Blue Ridge, into the Piedmont during the afternoon and evening. The development to the SE should be encouraged by strong afternoon heating and resultant instability again along and east of the Blue Ridge, with a forecast maximum of instability over central NC. Dew points in the mid to upper 60s along with temperatures forecast to reach the mid to upper 80s, will result strong instability over the NC/VA Piedmont east through the Coastal Plain. This will be a favorable environment for strong to locally severe storms again Sunday. Convection is expected to weaken and decrease Sunday night as the region gets convectively overturned and/or nighttime stabilization develops. Lows generally in the 65-70 range again expected. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 350 AM Saturday... A deep mid/upper level trough is again expected to develop across the eastern half of the country next week, with the deep mid/upper low expected to slowly wobble eastward across south central Canada to southeast Canada. This will drive another cold front into central NC on Monday. Afternoon low level thickness values support high temps above normal for Monday, generally ranging from the mid to upper 80s NW to the lower to mid 90s SE. A cold front driven by an embedded s/w in the cyclonic flow around the deep mid/upper low, will be the focus for strong to severe storms Monday afternoon/evening. With MLCAPE values of expected to range from 1500 to 2500 J/kg and deep layer shear on the order of 40 to 50 kts, expect we will have the potential for supercells with the main threat of damaging winds and large hail. Thus, SPC has most of our area in a slight risk for severe storms Monday. The surface front will settle southeastward and stall and weaken across eastern portions of NC Monday night into Tuesday. Lingering mostly diurnal chances/slight chances for showers and storms will be possible from mid to late week as quick moving low amplitude (hard to time) disturbances move through the l/w trough. Temps will generally be near to slightly above normal during this time frame, with highs generally in the 80s, lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 1255 PM Saturday... A disturbance aloft and a boundary lying across Virginia will bring a chance of thunderstorms to most areas 22z Sat to 06Z Sun. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through 18z/Sunday. Outlook: There be a chance of mainly late day storms on Sunday, and again on Monday through Wednesday as a cold front slowly approaches from the west and potentially stalls over the area.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...Badgett/Franklin SHORT TERM...Badgett LONG TERM...BSD AVIATION...Badgett/Franklin

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