Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS62 KRAH 301118
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
718 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016
Tropical Depression Eight will approach the Outer Banks of North
Carolina later today or tonight, before lifting northeastward into
the Atlantic Wednesday. A cold front will approach from the
northwest Wednesday, then push southeastward through North Carolina
on Thursday. Cool high pressure will start to build into the area
from the north Thursday night and Friday, as what is now Tropical
Depression Nine tracks northeast off the Southeast coast.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 310 AM Tuesday...
The big North Carolina weather story of the day will be with
tropical depression 8 as it churns off of the Carolina Coast. and as
of 2 AM was about 115 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras with maximum
sustained winds near 35 kts. The storm could strengthen and as a
result a Tropical Storm Warning is in place from Cape Lookout to
Oregon Inlet and the Pamlico Sound. While all that is going on near
the coast, it should be of very little if any consequence to our
weather here in central NC. The pattern is very stagnant with very
little upper level flow and no real waves or disturbances to speak
of outside of TD 8. Short term models are very reluctant to produce
even light showers across the area this afternoon. Therefore the
biggest threat for rain should be across the east with a few stray
showers possible and later in the afternoon/early evening a few
stray showers possible across the area but most of the area should
remain dry. Not an incredibly hot day with temperatures topping out
near 90 degrees and dewpoints near 70. East to northeasterly winds
will prevail throughout the day. Lows Tuesday night in the upper 60s
to low 70s.
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 310 AM Tuesday...
Tropical Depression 8 will begin its exit to the northeast by
Wednesday morning again with little consequence to central NC. A
mostly dry day again as we remain in the doldrums between the
exiting tropical system and an upper level trough that will just
begin to deepen by Wednesday night. Tropical Depression 9 will be
approaching the Gulf Coast along the Florida Panhandle at this time
but will still be far enough away to not have any effect on us here.
Temperatures a near carbon copy of Tuesday with highs near 90
degrees and dewpoints in the low 70s. Some slight chances for rain
across the east but also in the northwest Piedmont as a cold front
begins to approach from the northwest. Lows Wednesday night in the
.LONG TERM /Thursday through Monday/...
As of 245 AM Tuesday...
Thu/Thu night: Precip concerns for NC Thu/Thu night include a low
pressure area projected by some models to be just off the southern
NC coast early Fri, as well as the cold front approaching from the
NW, driven by a digging northern stream trough swinging through the
St. Lawrence valley and Northeast states. The former feature, if it
occurs, is likely to impact only our far SE sections (where PW will
be higher) early in the day, while the latter should bring a broken
band of showers and a few storms across the entire CWA later in the
day and into the evening, a result of marginal instability and deep
layer shear, upper divergence in the right entrance region of the
jet extending from northern VA to the Canadian maritimes, and low
level mass convergence and moisture pooling ahead of the front. But
coverage should be limited somewhat by the preceding low level
downslope component to the low level flow. Will keep a pop in the
far SE early, then retain a trend up to good chance pops Thu
afternoon, trending down in the late evening and overnight from NW
to SE. Highs 87-92 on the last day of above-normal temps prior to
frontal passage. Lows 65-70.
Fri-Mon: The circulation around what is now TD9 may pull a few
tropical showers into our far SE Fri as it tracks toward the NE off
the SC/NC coast, along with enhanced surface winds and gusts from
the northeast. But otherwise our weather heading into the weekend
will be largely driven by the cool high pressure building in from
the north, pulling in below-normal thicknesses and a markedly drier
air mass that will last into Mon, albeit with some modification as
the mean weak trough eases eastward just off the East Coast as
heights build in the west due to the building mid level ridge
through the Miss Valley and Ohio Valley. Weather may remain a bit
unsettled over the eastern CWA near the baggy upper trough axis, but
otherwise will have a dry forecast. Highs mostly in the lower-mid
80s and lows in the lower-mid 60s. -GIH
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --As of 720 AM Tuesday...
24 hour TAF period: MVFR conditions have not shown up this morning
so far and conditions are likely to remain VFR from here on out
until perhaps near the end of the TAF period if MVFR ceilings move
in, particularly in the east. Otherwise easterly to north easterly
winds today at 5-10 kts.
Long Term: Fairly dry conditions for much of the week with the
biggest threat for showers and thunderstorms in the extreme eastern
locations. A better chance for sub-VFR conditions near the end of
the week as what is now tropical depression nine makes a pass to
-- End Changed Discussion --