Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 231748 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 148 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND AND OFFSHORE THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT BEFORE PROGRESSING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1145 AM THURSDAY... SHORT: MOISTURE...NEGLIGIBLE. FORCING FOR ASCENT...ABSENT. FORECAST...DRY. HIGHS...MID/UPPER 60S. LOWS...UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S. SLIGHTLY LONGER: A CORRIDOR OF PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION TODAY...BETWEEN AN UPSTREAM (TN/OH VALLEY) RIDGE AND A DOWNSTREAM (MID-ATLANTIC COAST) UPPER LEVEL LOW. SUBSIDENCE WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE MID-ATLANTIC LOW TRACKS FURTHER DOWNSTREAM AND AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPSTREAM RIDGE INTO THE TN VALLEY...THOUGH THE IMPACT THEREOF (DRY/STABLE ATMOSPHERE) WILL REMAIN INTACT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. -VINCENT && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY... AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL TRACK INTO WESTERN NC/UPSTATE SC BY SUNSET FRIDAY EVENING...THEN PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY SUNRISE SAT. DUE TO THE DRY/STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS...FORCING (I.E. DPVA) ASSOC/W THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE CONFINED ALMOST ENTIRELY TO THE UPPER LEVELS (~500 MB) OF THE ATMOSPHERE. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A MODEST INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER (CIRRUS) FRIDAY NIGHT. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST GIVEN LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS. -VINCENT
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 125 PM THURSDAY... DRY AND MILD TO WARM THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK... THERE WERE ONLY MINOR ISSUES TO CONSIDER IN THE WEEKEND FORECAST. IN GENERAL... RISING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH A MEAN WESTERLY FLOW. THIS IS A DRY FLOW AND OFTEN TIMES IS ONE IN WHICH TEMPERATURES END UP WARMER THAN STATICAL GUIDANCE. THE ONLY ISSUES WILL BE THE TIMING OF A WEAK COLD FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS THIS WEEKEND. REGARDLESS... A MILD TO WARM WEEKEND IS ANTICIPATED WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MEAN WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY SUGGESTS A WARMING DOWNSLOPE FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. A PERIOD OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND MIXING SHOULD LEAD TO MILDER LOWS IN THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY... EVEN THOUGH THE WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND WEAKEN... SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS AGAIN WELL INTO THE 70S. THE NE ZONES MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER SUNDAY (COMPARED TO SATURDAY) AS THE SIGNIFICANT CAA IS DIRECTED MORE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID- ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND... BUT MAY GRAZE THE NE ZONES FOR A BRIEF TIME. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE DRY AND WARM. A RETURN FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD GIVE TEMPERATURES EVEN MORE OF A BOOST AS UPPER HEIGHTS RISE IN THE MEAN ZONAL FLOW. HIGHS MAY HIT 80 OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION TUESDAY AND/OR WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY AGAIN BRUSH THE AREA THURSDAY. HOWEVER... ONLY SUBTLE COOLING IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK... WITH A CONTINUED DRY LOOK TO THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN FOR OUR REGION. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 1145 AM THURSDAY... 24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS /CLEAR SKIES/ WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD IN ASSOC/W A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE UPSTREAM ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY. A NW BREEZE AT 10-15 KT WILL DECREASE TO 5 KT OR LESS BY SUNSET...BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ASSOC/W A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT. -VINCENT && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...VINCENT NEAR TERM...VINCENT SHORT TERM...VINCENT LONG TERM...PWB AVIATION...VINCENT

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