Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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540 FXUS62 KRAH 251811 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 210 PM EDT TUE OCT 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Cool high pressure will extend into our region from the north through Wednesday night, before shifting offshore early Thursday. A cold front will move into the area from the northwest Thursday night. && .NEAR TERM /through tonight/...
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As of 210 PM Tuesday... High confidence in quiet weather through tonight. With the front having settled to our south and high pressure ridging nosing in from the north, combined with slowly rising heights aloft (as the Canadian Maritimes vortex fills and lifts out with weak mid level shortwave ridging building in from the west) and steady warming in the 925-700 mb layer, we should see dry weather and good radiational cooling tonight, with only a few thin high clouds spreading in overnight from the NW. With calm or nearly calm air near the ground, the dearth of clouds, and dewpoints expected to slip into the 30s over most of central NC, there remains a chance (albeit small) of patchy frost in some outlying rural and sheltered areas of the northern Piedmont for an hour or perhaps two late tonight. But any frost would be minimal in coverage and duration, insufficient for an advisory of any kind. Expect wide-ranging lows of 36-42, with these lower values confined to the aforementioned outlying locations. -GIH
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&& .SHORT TERM /Wednesday and Wednesday night/... As of 305 AM Tuesday... Surface high over the region Wednesday moves east and offshore Wednesday night. The return southerly flow on the back side of the high will strengthen late Wednesday night as a sfc cold front associated with a s/w crossing the Great Lakes approaches. This low level flow will advect moisture into the lowest 10k ft of the atmosphere, leading to an increased probability of low-mid level cloudiness late Wednesday night. While clouds will be on the increase Wednesday night, the moisture layer and available lift appear too minimal to support any shower development through daybreak Thursday. High temperatures Wednesday afternoon should be comparable to high temps expected this afternoon, basically in the mid-upper 60s. Increasing cloudiness Wednesday night and a light sly sfc wind will lead to overnight temps several degree warmer compared to tonight. Low temperatures Wednesday night in the 45-50 degree range. && .LONG TERM /Thursday through Monday/... As of 305 AM Tuesday... Shortwave energy will cross the Great Lakes Thursday and head toward the Northeast. The associated cold front will cross the area late Thursday/early Friday. Moisture will be sufficient to support showers, though best dynamics remain to the north and instability is limited. Winds will shift to NW behind the front, though no appreciable CAA will follow, resulting in little impact to temperatures. Surface high pressure will build across the area Friday and Saturday, then sink southward over the Gulf Coast Sunday as another shortwave crosses north of the area. Moisture return with this system is lacking and a dry frontal passage looks likely at this time. Normal to above normal temperatures expected through the period. && .AVIATION /18Z Tuesday through Sunday/... As of 145 PM Tuesday... High confidence in continued VFR conditions through the next 24 hours, as surface high pressure extends into the area from the north. With deep dry air in place, very few clouds are expected, primarily confined to high thin clouds spreading in from the northwest. Surface winds will be light and variable under 6 kts through Wednesday. Looking beyond 18z Wednesday: With one exception, VFR conditions will remain dominant for the rest of the week and into the weekend. The exception will be late Wed night through Thu morning, as we get into a mild flow from the south or southwest which will bring a period of sub-VFR (likely MVFR, with brief early-morning IFR possible) stratus, and potentially some daybreak fog. The chance for MVFR cigs will hold into late Thu afternoon and Thu evening as a few showers and isolated storms pass through the area ahead of a cool front pushing in from the north-northwest. MVFR cigs may linger near FAY through late Thu night. Then, high pressure will build in both at the surface and aloft, leading to mostly dry weather and VFR conditions Fri through the weekend. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...Hartfield SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...Hartfield is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.