Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 280645 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 241 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND SETTLE OVER THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... AS OF 240 AM SATURDAY... MORNING: STRONG DPVA /HEIGHT FALLS/ ATTENDANT A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WILL RESULT IN SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS BETWEEN 06-10Z THIS MORNING... PRIMARILY EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE TRIANGLE. DESPITE STEEP LOW- LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THERMAL PROFILES WILL REMAIN NEARLY SATURATED WITH LITTLE EVAP COOLING POTENTIAL (06Z SFC OBS INDICATE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF ONLY 0-3F IN THE COASTAL PLAIN). AND THE FREEZING LEVEL IS PROGGED TO FALL NO LOWER THAN 1-2 KFT AGL BY 12Z (CURRENTLY 3 KFT PER 06Z SPC MESOANALYSIS)...A FORMIDABLE MELTING LAYER TO OVERCOME...PARTICULARLY IN THE ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT EVAP COOLING AND/OR HEAVY PRECIPITATION. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND... HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE MENTION OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH PRECIPITATION EXITING BEFORE THERMAL PROFILES BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF A MIXED PTYPE. AFTERNOON: DESPITE FULL SUN /LATE MARCH INSOLATION/...AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIRMASS DEPOSITED BY STRONG COLD ADVECTION THIS MORNING WILL RESULT IN WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NORTH/NW TO LOWER 50S S/SE. -VINCENT && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/... AS OF 240 AM SATURDAY... ...FREEZE WATCH UPGRADED TO A FREEZE WARNING... TONIGHT: CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...SETTLING OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NC BY SUNRISE SUN MORNING. BASED ON OBSERVATIONS OF THE UPSTREAM AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION AND THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING BY 06Z SUN AND BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW/MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTH/NW PIEDMONT AND MID/UPPER 20S ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 64...COLDEST IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND WARMEST IN THE FAR SE COASTAL PLAIN. SUNDAY: THE STRONGEST SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY IN CONCERT WITH THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH...WITH THE ATTENDANT LOW-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA/SE COAST BY 00Z MON. A SOUTHWEST FLOW /WARM ADVECTION/ WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...THOUGH A NEUTRAL ADVECTION PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ACCOUNTING FOR AIRMASS MODIFICATION VIA LATE MARCH INSOLATION...AND MARGINAL WARM ADVECTION IN THE WEST...EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S NE COASTAL PLAIN TO LOWER 50S SW PIEDMONT. -VINCENT && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 240 AM SATURDAY... SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND ASSOC SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW AND MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS EARLY MONDAY. GIVEN ANTECEDENT DRY AIR AND LACK OF SIGNIF MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE THROUGH WITH LITTLE PRECIP...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AT LEAST LOW-END CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED FOR MONDAY MORNING...BUT AS NOTED...QPF VALUES ARE LOW. LOWS MONDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S AND HIGHS ON MONDAY REACHING THE LOWER 60S...THANKS TO POST-FRONTAL WESTERLY FLOW AND SUNSHINE RETURNING BY MID-DAY. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LOOK FOR QUIET WEATHER AS DRY NW FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE REGION WHILE A TRANSIENT SFC HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. SEASONABLE TEMPS...LOWS MONDAY NIGHT AROUND 40 AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE MID-UPR 60S. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS OUR STATE...STALLING NEAR THE SC BORDER BY LATE WEDNESDAY. ONCE AGAIN...MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY PRECIP ASSOC WITH THIS FRONT. LOWS IN THE MID 40S AND HIGHS AROUND 70. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE PASSING ACROSS OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY. AS SUCH...LOOK FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO LIFT TO OUR NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY...BRINGING AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME FRIDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOC WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE. HIGHS AROUND 70 AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 200 AM SATURDAY... 24-HR TAF PERIOD: ASIDE FROM A BRIEF POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS AND RAIN SHOWERS AT THE RWI TERMINAL BETWEEN 06-10Z THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL RULE AT ALL CENTRAL NC TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A NORTHWEST BREEZE AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY...WEAKENING TO ~5 KT BY SUNSET AND BECOMING CALM BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS. LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST/NW. THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR ADVERSE CONDITIONS (MVFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN) WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. -VINCENT && .CLIMATE... RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 29TH ARE LISTED BELOW. RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURE GSO 20-1966 RDU 20-1966 FAY 24-1982 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ028-042- 043-073>078-083>086-088-089. && $$ SYNOPSIS...VINCENT NEAR TERM...VINCENT SHORT TERM...VINCENT LONG TERM...RAH AVIATION...VINCENT CLIMATE...RAH

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