Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 290547 RRA AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 145 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL NC TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVERHEAD. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND SINK SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1050 PM TUESDAY... THE 00Z WEDNESDAY UPPER AIR ANALYSES CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...WITH GENERALLY NW FLOW ALOFT OVER CENTRAL NC. ASIDE FROM A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN VA... THE CONVECTION FROM EARLY THIS EVENING HAS ENDED. A FEW OF THE HI- RES CAMS TRY TO GENERATE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE NW OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH AT THIS TIME...WILL FORECAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE NW TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 335 PM TUESDAY... UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TEMPORARILY AMPLIFIES/EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A S/W TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS BUILDING OF HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL INDUCE A MID LEVEL CAP ON THE ATMOSPHERE...INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR WEST AND NORTH SECTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE THE PERSISTENT LEESIDE TROUGH AND A STALLED WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR IS ATTRIBUTED TO PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS. THIS OCCURRENCE APPEARS MORE LIKELY AT KRWI AND POSSIBLY KFAY.OLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION INT EH AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING. MAX TEMPS WEDNEDAY SHOULD BE COMPARABLE TO HIGH TEMPS RECORDED TODAY (NEAR 90-LOWER 90S). POTENTIAL TO SEE A SPOT OR TWO IN THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT/SANDHILLS FLIRT WITH MID 90S. MIN TEMPS NEAR 70-LOWER 70S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY... THE MAIN FEATURE FOR OUR AREA DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST. IT WILL BEGIN LATE THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH BEGINS DEEPENING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION...AND IN DOING SO WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO BEGIN RAMPING POPS UP ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY...BUT MOST OF DAYTIME THURSDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THEN RAIN CHANCES ENDING FROM W- E DURING THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY. TEMPS DURING THIS TIME NEAR NORMAL. FAIR WEATHER THEN APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR CENTRAL NC OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH AND MUCH DRIER AIR OVER OUR REGION. THE PROGGED LOW LEVEL AIRMASS STILL APPEARS TO SUPPORT HIGHS AS WARM AS THE LOW 90S...SO LITTLE IF ANY RELIEF TEMPERATURE-WISE DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH. POPS EXPECTED TO REBOUND CLOSER TO DAILY CLIMO VALUES AS WE HEAD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PWAT SLOWLY RECOVERS. HOWEVER... COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST GIVEN THE BETTER SYNOP FEATURES REMAINING BOTH TO OUR NORTH AND TO OUR SOUTH. IT`S WORTH NOTING THAT GIVEN THE LINGERING BOUNDARY AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH DURING THIS TIME...ANY SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE PATTERN COULD MEAN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR US DURING THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESP ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. SO GIVEN OUR PROXIMITY TO THESE FEATURES...OUR CONFIDENCE IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST ISN`T PARTICULARLY HIGH. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 145 AM WEDNESDAY... CONVECTION FROM LAST EVENING DIMINISHED A FEW HOURS AGO...LEAVING JUST CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 6K FT DRIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE CRUX OF THE CLOUD COVER APPEARS TO BE MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA AND SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT IS MOVING IN FROM UPSTREAM...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SOME AREAS OF SUB-VFR VSBY TO DEVELOP. BASED ON EARLIER RAINFALL...KINT AND KGSO SHOULD RUN THE BEST CHANCE OF IFR OR LIFR VSBYS...AND KGSO HAS ALREADY REPORTED A PERIOD OF 1/2SM VSBY WITH PARTIAL CLEARING. CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MEDIUM AT THE MOMENT...BUT THERE IS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE HRRR MODEL. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR VSBYS AT OTHER SITES...THOUGH THE OFTEN FOG PRONE KRWI MAY SEE LOWER VSBYS AS WELL. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND MAY LIMIT STORM COVERAGE MORE SO THAN IN PRIOR DAYS. AS SUCH...WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER IN THE CURRENT TAF...BUT CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST AT KGSO AND KINT ONCE AGAIN. OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY...WITH SOME PREFRONTAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. IF THIS FRONT DOES PUSH ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE AREA...THEN VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MUCH MORE LIKELY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...22 NEAR TERM...10 SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...RAH AVIATION...22

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