Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 170527 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 125 AM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A surface low pressure trough will extend from western North Carolina through South Carolina today through tonight. This trough will shift northeastward late tonight, and then hold over the Piedmont Friday through Saturday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/... As of 1000 PM Wednesday... Little adjustment required to the near term forecast. An isolated heavy rain shower dumped over 2 inches in an hour over north central Guilford, per observation from CoCoRAHS report. This particular cell seemed to be feeding along a tight low level moisture gradient while the lack of overall movement due to relatively weak flow below 500mb. This cell also aided by a weak perturbation aloft drifting sewd across the piedmont. This heavy shower has greatly diminished in intensity since 0120Z. Other isolated heavy showers over the southern Piedmont exhibiting the same characteristics, demonstrating a weakening trend since 0120Z. Through 05Z, cannot rule out an isolated shower as the small perturbation aloft continues to drift sewd, exiting our region after midnight. Overnight, areas of low clouds and fog appear highly probable over central NC thanks to the tropical-like air mass in place. Min temps in the low-mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Wednesday... A short wave ridge axis over the Carolinas on Thursday morning will give way to decreasing heights and an increasing southwesterly flow on Thursday night. An increasing southerly flow will develop allowing a recovery of moisture with precipitable water values climbing back to between 2.0 to 2.25 inches by Thursday evening. While the forcing for ascent is modest, the return of warm advection and increasing moisture should result in an uptick in showers and thunderstorms over today. After a period of morning stratus in the Coastal Plain and northeast Piedmont, expect variably cloudy skies. Low-level thickness values increase a few meters supporting highs between 89 to 94 with lows in the lower to mid 70s. -Blaes && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 335 PM Wednesday... The cold front that`s currently moving across the Central Plains is progged to move across the Appalachians early Friday and across central NC late Friday or Friday evening. This feature and its assoc upper short wave trough will provide the support for scattered showers/tstms Friday and Friday evening. Like fronts often do this time of year when the upper trough pulls out, Friday night`s front will slow down and stall across eastern NC overnight into Saturday morning, and prolong the chance for scattered showers/tstms from about I-95 eastward. Locations west of Raleigh to the Triad should remain dry most of the daytime Saturday. Then another short wave trough and it`s cold front will move across the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas Saturday night into Sunday morning, thus additional widely sct showers are possible during that time. Given the fast flow to our north, the short wave will exit to our northeast while leaving the sfc cold front stalled across the Carolinas late Sunday into Monday morning, before the front dissipates later Monday. Unfortunately, this may set the stage additional showers on Monday, and with a fair amount of cloudiness around, possibly obscuring the partial eclipse Monday afternoon. I wouldn`t give up hope just yet for seeing the partial eclipse here in central NC, as there is a fair amount of disagreement among models regarding how far south the front will stall, and thus where the best chance for clouds and showers will be. Stay tuned! At or above-climo rain chances will continue Tue and Wed thanks to cyclonic flow and a series of short waves crossing the region. Temps during the long term period at or above normal.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 125 AM Thursday... An area of IFR conditions is expected early this morning over northeast portions of central NC, including RWI, where vsbys have already dropped to MVFR in fog. Confidence is high that RWI will see mainly IFR conditions developing, peaking 08z-12z this morning. RDU and FAY will see a lower threat of IFR conditions, although MVFR fog is still possible at these two sites. INT/GSO will see only a slight chance of sub-VFR conditions this morning. After 13z, cigs/vsbys at RWI are expected to improve to VFR by 15z. VFR conditions will then dominate through the day, although scattered showers and storms generating a period of sub-VFR conditions and erratic winds will be possible at each site, mainly 18z-00z. VFR conditions should prevail this evening into tonight, although MVFR fog may develop starting around 05z. Winds will be light and variable this morning, becoming mostly from the south by midday, at 6-10 kts this afternoon diminishing to 3-6 kts starting this evening. Looking beyond 06z Fri, good chance of MVFR fog at all sites 06z- 12z, followed by VFR conditions after 13z. Scattered showers and storms are possible mainly mid afternoon through mid evening Fri, although additional isolated storms remain possible through Fri night, with a chance for sub-VFR fog/stratus. Best shower/storm chances shift to our SE for Sat into Mon, with VFR conditions prevailing, although FAY may continue to see a storm threat. -GIH
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...BLAES LONG TERM...np AVIATION...Hartfield

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