Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 240644 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 245 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT... AND THEN MOVE OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 235 AM FRIDAY... QUIET AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. AT THE SURFACE THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND ON OUR WEATHER IS QUICKLY DIMINISHING AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM NC... LEAVING A VERY WEAK TROUGH OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS SEPARATING TWO WEAK RIDGES OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE SW TODAY. ALOFT... THE COMBINATION OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH CENTRAL KY/TN TO MS/AL AND A STRONG VORTICITY CENTER NEAR CHICAGO WILL BRING PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD AS THESE FEATURES TRACK ESE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE EXPECTED FAIR SKIES WILL STILL ALLOW FOR MILKY INSOLATION... PUSHING TEMPS UP TO MAXES OF 70-73... CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOLLOWING FORECAST THICKNESSES. IN THE WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH TONIGHT... THE MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL DEPART... LEAVING CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT MAINLY NORTH WINDS AS THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER W TX AND LA BUILDS STRONGLY TO THE NE TOWARD THE SRN APPALACHIANS. LOWS TONIGHT 39-45... ON THE LOW END OF STATISTICAL GUIDANCE WITH EXPECTATIONS OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. -GIH
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 245 AM FRIDAY... CONTINUED TRANQUIL WEATHER. THE SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR SW WILL EXTEND NORTHEAST INTO NC... ALTHOUGH WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING THROUGH NRN/WRN NC WILL BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED AS STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE BASE OF THE VORTEX DROPPING THROUGH SRN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. BUT DRY/STABLE FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND UPSTREAM CONDITIONS SUPPORT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD AT OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS... SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S. LOWS WILL BE MILDER SAT NIGHT... 45-50... AS A TIGHTER MSLP GRADIENT KEEPS THE LOW LEVELS SLIGHTLY STIRRED OVERNIGHT. -GIH
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 125 PM THURSDAY... DRY AND MILD TO WARM THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE WERE ONLY MINOR ISSUES TO CONSIDER IN THE WEEKEND FORECAST. IN GENERAL... RISING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH A MEAN WESTERLY FLOW. THIS IS A DRY FLOW AND OFTEN TIMES IS ONE IN WHICH TEMPERATURES END UP WARMER THAN STATICAL GUIDANCE. THE ONLY ISSUES WILL BE THE TIMING OF A WEAK COLD FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS THIS WEEKEND. REGARDLESS... A MILD TO WARM WEEKEND IS ANTICIPATED WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MEAN WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY SUGGESTS A WARMING DOWNSLOPE FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. A PERIOD OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND MIXING SHOULD LEAD TO MILDER LOWS IN THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY... EVEN THOUGH THE WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND WEAKEN... SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS AGAIN WELL INTO THE 70S. THE NE ZONES MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER SUNDAY (COMPARED TO SATURDAY) AS THE SIGNIFICANT CAA IS DIRECTED MORE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID- ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND... BUT MAY GRAZE THE NE ZONES FOR A BRIEF TIME. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE DRY AND WARM. A RETURN FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD GIVE TEMPERATURES EVEN MORE OF A BOOST AS UPPER HEIGHTS RISE IN THE MEAN ZONAL FLOW. HIGHS MAY HIT 80 OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION TUESDAY AND/OR WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY AGAIN BRUSH THE AREA THURSDAY. HOWEVER... ONLY SUBTLE COOLING IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK... WITH A CONTINUED DRY LOOK TO THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN FOR OUR REGION.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 115 AM FRIDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT. A MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH NOW EXTENDING FROM LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH CENTRAL TN AND MS/AL WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY... SPREADING MID-HIGH CLOUDS WITH BASES ABOVE 15 000 FT AGL OVER CENTRAL NC TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE MOST POTENT PORTION OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE A STRONG VORTICITY CENTER NOW NEAR CHICAGO THAT WILL DROP SE OVER THE SAVANNAH RIVER THIS EVENING... AND ONCE THIS PASSES WELL TO OUR SE... SKIES OVER NC WILL CLEAR. NO OTHER AVIATION HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED... WITH DRY NEAR-SURFACE AIR LIMITING ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT DESPITE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY SAT MORNING... VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO HOLD AT ALL CENTRAL NC TAF SITES THROUGH TUE... AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE WSW. THE ONLY EXCEPTION: A LITTLE FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY TUE MORNING MAINLY AT FAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD LONG TERM...PWB AVIATION...HARTFIELD

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