Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 280446 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1245 AM EDT Sun May 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Several upper level disturbances will combine with a surface trough to bring a chance of thunderstorms through Monday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /Overnight/...
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As of 1245 AM EDT Sunday... We will clear the Severe Thunderstorm Watch that was issued for Davidson and Forsyth shortly. The first line of thunderstorms has been weakening as it pushed through the Triad region. This line produced brief heavy rain and wind gusts to 35 mph, along with frequent lightning. There is a residual MCV associated with the weakening convection now over the north-central Piedmont around Burlington. This feature may continue to produce a large area of mostly stratiform rain with some convective elements and some CG lightning as it moves east in the next few hours. Upstream, a new Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for much of southwestern NC from AVL to HKY and CLT. This Watch is just west of our region. A severe line of thunderstorms associated with an MCS located over NE Tennessee was moving ESE over the Mountains. We will have to see how this evolves as it crosses the Mountains and comes off the Blue Ridge into the western Piedmont in the next hour or so. The area of concern over the western Piedmont has not been convectively overturned along and south of the outflow boundary - now located from near Statesville to near Asheboro. However, increasing CINH may help keep the chance of damaging wind or large hail in check as the storms move into our region in the next few hours. Otherwise, mostly cloudy and warm overnight with a chance of showers and thunderstorms, highest chance in the areas from Lexington to Albemarle and Southern Pines south and west to Charlotte in the next few hours. Lows generally 65-70.
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&& ..SHORT TERM /Sunday through Monday Night/... As of 330 pm EDT Saturday... Sunday and Sunday night: The MCV currently over northern Missouri/southern Iowa is generally forecast to stay north of the area while shearing out across the Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes overnight, with new convective development and associated MCV predicted across parts of Missouri/Ozarks later this afternoon/evening. This will be the region to watch over the next 12 hours, with Sunday`s convective forecast highly dependent on the magnitude/timing of these convectively enhanced disturbances. Adding to the already complex convective forecast will be the evolution of this evening/tonight`s convection, with the potential for the convection to leave behind an old convective outflow/TMB across the area which could served as a secondary focus for convective initiation. Will maintain good chance pops,highest across the western/central Piedmont during the afternoon and into the early evening, with decreasing pops by 03 to 06z due to a cooling BL. Steep mid-level lapse rates will linger across the region, with models showing 1500- 2500 J/KG of MLCAPE developing amidst a moistening boundary layer( dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s). When combined with deep layer shear of 40 to 50 kts, if organized convection develops or moves into the area on Sunday, the environment will be supportive of supercells capable of producing straight line winds and large hail. Highs Sunday very similar to today with highs ranging from mid 80s north to lower 90s south. Lows 65 to 70. Monday and Monday night: The closed low over the Upper Great Lakes will wobble slowly east on Monday. A surface cold front, attendant to a northern stream shortwave trough lifting off to the north/northeast, will weaken and likely stall as it moves the area late Monday afternoon into Monday night. Meanwhile, models suggest the potential for shortwave disturbances, embedded in the SW flow aloft between the upper low to our north and the subtropical ridge over the SE States, to move through the region. Scattered to numerous showers and storms are possible across the area Monday afternoon and evening as the front approaches from the west and with the continued threat of disturbances moving through the region. While storm intensity should weaken with loss of heating, with the front expected to stall across the area, the chance of showers could linger well into the overnight hours. Strong daytime heating within the moist and moderately unstable airmass combined with continued strong mid-level flow that will support favorable/strong deep layer shear of 40-50 kts will result in another slight risk for severe storms across the area with damaging winds and large hail the primary threats. Highs in the mid 80s north to near 90 south. Lows in the mid 60s NW to lower 70s SE. && .LONG TERM /Tuesday through Saturday/... As of 230 PM EDT Saturday... Closed low will move slowly east across SE Canada and NE U.S. through the period. Central NC will find itself near the base of the associated upper trough and accompanying strong belt of westerlies extending south into the region. While there is generally good agreement on the synoptic scale pattern, sensible weather next week will be greatly influenced by the many shortwave disturbances that are forecast to track through the region within the low amplitude west-southwesterly flow aloft between the aforementioned closed low to the north and the subtropical ridge to our south. Additionally, the exact evolution of these disturbances timing/track/magnitude) will likely play a role in the location of a nearby sfc boundary that`s forecast to stall across the SE states. Thus, expect pops near to above climo each day, dependent on difficult to time disturbances, with convection likely to exhibit a diurnal trend. Expect seasonable temperatures with highs ranging from lower 80s north to mid/upper 80s south. Lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION /06Z Sunday through Wednesday/...
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As of 1245 AM EDT Sunday... A chance of showers/thunderstorms will continue through 09z-12z as the new line of storms emerges off the Blue Ridge shortly. Otherwise, generally VFR conditions expected tonight and Sunday morning. There should be additional storms again Sunday afternoon and night, with any TAF site having a 50/50 chance of a period of storms. All told, outside of convection, VFR conditions are expected through the 24 hour TAF period, although there could be patches of MVFR fog in the predawn at locations which do receive rain. Outlook: There be a chance of mainly late day storms Monday through Wednesday as a cold front slowly approaches from the west and potentially stalls over the area.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...Badgett/Vincent SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...CBL AVIATION...Badgett/MLM

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