Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 300758 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 357 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK NORTH FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND WILL CROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY... MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER CURRENTLY NEAR MOBILE BAY WILL DAMPEN INTO AN OPEN WAVE AND LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN GEORGIA TODAY AND THEN INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS TONIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY. TOP-DOWN MOISTENING WILL COMMENCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE WITH ASSOCIATED 850-700MB SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTING PLUME OF HIGH ~2.0" PWAT(POSSIBLE REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME FROM DANNY)INTO EASTERN HALF OF THE CAROLINAS. DRY STABLE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA WILL ACT TO DETER RAIN CHANCES UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF THE DPVA AND MOISTURE SURGE FROM THE SOUTH. THUS TODAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW SPRINKLES OR DIMINISHING ISOLATED SHOWER NEAR THE SC/NC BORDER...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHS TODAY AT OR JUST A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL...HELD IN CHECK BY OPAQUE VEIL OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE EJECTING UPPER WAVE. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY... SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DAMPENED MID- LEVEL WAVE SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON. WHILE UPPER FORCING LOOKS TO BE WANING/EXITING THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...TEMPERED DIURNAL HEATING WITHIN THE LINGERING MOIST ~2.0" PWAT AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN NC MAY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME THUNDER AS WEAK TO MODERATE BUOYANCY DEVELOPS(MUCAPE OF 700-1500 J/KG). WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGES...HIGHEST IN THE EAST. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY EVENING AS BOTH UPPER FORCING AND MOIST PLUME SHIFT OFFSHORE. HIGHS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON PRECIP COVERAGE...RANGING FROM LOWER 80S IN WETTER MODEL SOLUTIONS TO MID/UPPER 80S WHERE SHOWERS ARE SCARCE. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL HAVE ORIGINATED FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE ITS TREK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ON MONDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE (BEST CHANCES SHIFTING EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY) AS THIS FEATURE GRADUALLY GETS PICKED UP AND MOVED OUT OF THE AREA AS A STRONGER MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS OVER THE NORTHEAST US/SOUTHEAST CANADA. THEN FOR EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO EXPAND WESTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST. IN ADDITION ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES WILL PROVIDE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING FOR PRECIP. IN ADDITION...ERIKA HAS WEAKENED INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ONLY HAS A SMALL CHANCE OF REDEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT REEMERGES AND MOVES OVER THE EASTERN GULF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THEREFORE...IT NOW APPEARS THAT ERIKA IS LOOKING TO BEST LESS AND LESS A FACTOR IN OUR WEATHER...ALTHOUGH RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY STILL BE DRAWN UP TOWARDS OUR REGION (ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA)...PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED (MOSTLY DIURNAL) SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SOME TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE GETS SUPPRESSED WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...PUTTING CENTRAL NC UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. REGARDLESS...PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED AS IT IS HARD TO FAVOR ONE DAY OVER ANOTHER. TEMPS WILL ALSO BE NEAR CLIMO. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 150 AM SUNDAY... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING/EARLY MONDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE REGION. A WEAKENING UPPER-LEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...WILL TRACK NORTH AND OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. TOP-DOWN MOISTENING IS EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE WITH RAIN/SHOWER CHANCES INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH BETWEEN 06 TO 12Z MONDAY. COULD SEE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS WITHIN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...OTHERWISE.... EXPECT MOSTLY LOW END VFR CEILINGS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THEIR ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJF NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...KRD AVIATION...CBL

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