Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 251842 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 242 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will drop south across North Carolina today and then stall across South Carolina on Wednesday. This front will lift back north on Thursday before a strong cold front approaches the region from the northwest on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 225 PM Tuesday... Latest surface analysis shows the cold front making good southward progress and stretching from near KPGV southwest to KGSB to near KGSP. Surface dew points have already fallen into the lower to mid 60s across the border counties with a dew point of 64 noted at Roxboro and Henderson, just to the east higher dew points in the lower 70s persist at KIXA and KASJ. Aloft, the upper-level trough axis has shifted toward the coast. Precipitable water values continue to fall and now range from 1.1" along the NC/VA border to around 1.6" across the south and southeast. A weak short wave will drop into the region from the northwest late tonight while a southwest-northeast elongated upper level jet axis extends across the Southeast. With decreased moisture, a weakly unstable air mass and limited forcing, precipitation chances will be limited this evening and tonight. The only organized area of convection near our CWA will likely be scattered storms across the coastal region near the surface front and another area of isolated convection across the higher elevation of the NC mountains. Given the higher dew points in the lower 70s lingering across the Coastal Plain and Sandhills and slightly better mid- level lapse rates, could see a shower pop up in the east or a shower in the higher elevations move into the western Piedmont. Will include slight chance pops tonight. Expect periods of cirrus tonight with the enhanced upper level jet. A layer lower stratus may develop late tonight in an arc from the Coastal Plain west and northwest across the Sandhills and into the Yadkin Valley. It will be cooler tonight with a some lows reaching the upper 60s across the northern Piedmont, especially near the VA border with most locations ranging from 67 to 74 degrees. The EC ensemble guidance for Henderson gives an operational and a mean low both of 67 with the warmest ensemble member giving a low of 69 and the coldest 63! -Blaes && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 240 PM Tuesday... The cold front should be positioned south of central NC on Wednesday morning allowing high pressure to extend into the region from the north. The front will begin lifting north on later Wednesday as the surface flow veers to southeasterly and southerly. This will allow an increase in moisture roughly in the 925 to 850 hPa layer and promote an increase in cloud cover and perhaps a shower or storm, generally in an arc from the Coastal Plain west and northwest across the Sandhills and into the Yadkin early in the day that will expand northward during the afternoon and evening. Precipitation chances will be limited to the slight chance range across most of the area, so all in all it will be a much cooler and more tolerable day. Highs will range in the upper 80s to near 90 with lows in the 68 to 74 range. -Blaes
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 320 AM Tuesday... Thursday is expected to be a relatively dry day as upper flow over central NC remains zonal and a surface low passes to the north of the area. The attendant cold front to this low is expected to drop southward across the area on Friday. The upper trough becomes deeper than in yesterday`s simulations and helps to now push the front completely through the area by Saturday afternoon. This will keep the best chances for showers and storms between 18z Friday through 12z Saturday. Continental high pressure to the northwest dries out the area, keeping weather settled through Sunday before a wave out of the Gulf of Mexico becomes a player early next week. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s Thursday and Friday will drop into the mid 80s for the weekend into early next week. Lows in the low to mid 70s early in the time frame will drop into the upper 60s to low 70s for the later stages of the long term forecast. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 200 PM Monday... 24-Hour TAF period... Central NC is under the influence of high pressure to the north with a cold front stalled south of the area in SC and GS. This will result in VFR conditions across much of central NC through Wednesday afternoon with the exception of some morning MVFR stratus and fog across the south which may impact the KFAY terminal. An isolated shower or storm is possible across the Southern Coastal Plain, Sandhills and souther/Western Piedmont. But with limited and coverage and confidence, will omit from the TAF. Otherwise, expect periods of fair weather cumulus this afternoon and periods of BKN cirrus clouds. A layer lower stratus the VFR and MVFR range may develop in an arc from the Coastal Plain west and northwest across the Sandhills and into the Yadkin Valley late tonight and Wednesday morning. Light north to northeast winds at less than 10kts will continue through the period before veering to southeasterly on Wednesday afternoon. Looking ahead... The cold front to the south will lift north as a warm front on Thursday before a stronger cold front moves through the area on Friday and then stalls to our south over the weekend. Mainly VFR conditions expected through much of the period with scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms and a chance of morning fog and stratus. The greatest chance of adverse aviation conditions in showers and storms will be Thursday night through Friday night ahead of the approaching cold front. -Blaes && .EQUIPMENT... The KRAX WSR-88D will be down for the Service Life Extension Upgrade (SLEP) beginning this morning and likely lasting through Thursday or Friday. The temperature & dew point sensor at site KFAY, located at the Fayetteville Regional Airport, is malfunctioning. NWS technicians have turned the sensor off and ordered parts to repair it. At this time, we expect the sensor to be returned to service early next week. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BLAES NEAR TERM...BLAES SHORT TERM...BLAES LONG TERM...RE AVIATION...BLAES EQUIPMENT...BLAES is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.