Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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790 FXUS62 KRAH 121952 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 251 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. IN ITS PLACE...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY... AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OFF OF THE COAST...THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION IS NOW EAST OF US 1 AND WILL QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY UNDER A HALF OF AN INCH OF SNOW HAVE BEEN REPORTED UNDER THE HEAVIER RETURNS WITH A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THIS WILL BE THE STATUS QUO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE CLEARING OUT. WITH COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE ALREADY...NOT MUCH CHANCE TO GET BACK ABOVE FREEZING TODAY EXCEPT IN THE EXTREME WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE MID 30S WILL BE POSSIBLE. IMPACTS TO ROADS HAVE BEEN MINIMAL AT THIS POINT AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE MINIMAL OVERNIGHT. TIMING LOOKS GOOD ENOUGH THAT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE LEG GO BY THE EXPIRATION TIME OF 00Z. ANY EXTENSION OF THE ADVISORY WOULD BE FOR RESIDUAL EFFECTS...PERHAPS IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE MORE FREEZING RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF...SKIES WILL CLEAR FAIRLY QUICKLY AND THUS TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BEGIN TO DROP QUITE A BIT. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 20S ACROSS THE NORTH TO MIDDLE 20S IN THE SOUTH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY... AS EAST COAST TROUGH TRIES TO PULL OFF THE COAST...VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ENSUE BEHIND THE EXITING COASTAL SYSTEM. WITH VERY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA...COLD TEMPERATURES AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN SUSTAINED OUT OF THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AT 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS FOR MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. AFTER SUNSET GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND WITH WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE UPPER 10S TO LOW 20S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. AS AN ASIDE...WITH THE COLD BUT ALSO DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...MIN RH VALUES WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE LOW 20S. COMBINE THESE VALUES WITH THE HIGHER WINDS AND THERE WILL BE A SMALL INCREASE IN FIRE DANGER SATURDAY IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THAT MAY SQUEAK INTO THE LOWER 40S. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SEE THE GUSTS SLACK OFF BUT SUSTAINED WINDS TO REMAIN UP IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE KEEP THINGS MIXED A LITTLE. COMBINE THIS WITH VERY COLD EXPECTED LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS...WIND CHILL VALUES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RESIDE IN THE 5-10 DEGREE RANGE. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE NOW TO PROTECT ANYTHING SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE COLD WIND CHILLS...ESPECIALLY PETS. SOME CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 350 AM FRIDAY... SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY (WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 30S)... BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MEANWHILE... S/W ENERGY ALOFT WILL IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND AMPLIFY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH... WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. WAA IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO DEVELOP ON MONDAY MORNING... WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PIEDMONT. GIVEN THE DRY COLD AIRMASS DEPOSITED BY THE DEPARTING ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH WE WILL LIKELY SEE THE PRECIP START OFF AS SNOW/WINTRY MIX WITH AN IN-SITU CAD DEVELOPING. HOWEVER... THIS FIRST BAND OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FURTHER INLAND WITH THE TRACK OF THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW... TRACKING IT GENERALLY FROM SW TO NE ACROSS CENTRAL NC TUESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON... ALONG WITH TROUGH ALOFT BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT CROSS THE REGION. IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE... THERE WOULD BE A POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX (THOUGH SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH MAY WARM TOO MUCH BEFORE PRECIP ARRIVES) MONDAY MORNING... WITH PRECIP CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN THEN RAIN THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY IN A SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST FASHION. GIVEN THE RUN TO RUN MODEL DIFFERENCES.... HAVE ELECTED TO STAY CLOSER TO THE LATEST GFS VS THE ECMWF WITH REGARD TO THICKNESS AMD RAW TEMPS... AS THE GFS IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH ITS PAST RUNS. THE LATEST ECMWF IS WARMER AND TURN THE PRECIP TO ALL RAIN EVEN QUICKER. THE MAIN BULK OF THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING... WITH POSSIBLY 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN. WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY THUNDER IN THE FORECAST NOW... GIVEN WE ARE STILL TALKING ABOUT A SYSTEM THAT IS STILL OUT IN THE PACIFIC... BUT WITH THE CURRENT ADVERTISED NEG. MID LEVEL TROUGH (BOTH ON THE ECMWF AND GFS) WE COULD SEE SOME EMBEDDED STORMS. HIGH AND LOW TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY DURING THIS PERIOD AND BE DRIVEN BY THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND PRECIP... ALONG WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. FOR NOW WILL SHOW TEMPS STARTING OUT IN THE 20S MONDAY MORNING... THEN RISING THROUGH MONDAY TUESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON... BEFORE FALLING AGAIN MID TO LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE LOW. FOR NOW THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S NW TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S SE ON MONDAY... WITH LOWS DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD VERY SIMILAR TO HIGHS ON MONDAY (LIKELY OCCURRING DURING MONDAY EVENING). TEMPS TUESDAY WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW... WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (THOUGH WILL NOT GO ANYWHERE CLOSE TO THAT HIGH YET). TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: MODELS HAVE TREND TOWARDS A L/W TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT... WITH PERHAPS A MOISTURE STARVED DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THUS... HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A BIT... HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S THOUGH... WITH LOWS IN THE 30S (NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL). -WSS && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY... 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: SHORT FUSE WINTER WEATHER EVENT IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL WIND DOWN LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH KFAY AND KRWI THE AFFECTED SITES. A MIX OF WINTER P-TYPES AT KFAY WITH LIGHT FREEZING RAIN THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO FROM THIS POINT ON AND THAT IS WHAT IS CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED AT KFAY. FURTHER TO THE NORTH KRWI WILL EXPERIENCE MORE SNOW OR SNOW AND SLEET MIX OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO PULL OFF TO THE EAST. ONCE PRECIPITATION ENDS...CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE MAIN STORY FOR SATURDAY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS WITH SUSTAINED VALUES OF 15 KTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...GUSTING TO 25-30 KTS AT ALL TAF SITES. GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. LONG TERM: THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR ADVERSE CONDITIONS WILL COME ON MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. && .CLIMATE... HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR SAT FEB 13TH AND SUN FEB 14TH AT GSO... RDU... AND FAY: REC YR REC YR LOW LOW MAX ---------------------------------------------- GSO: 02/13 11 1955 31 1986 02/14 6 1905 22 1914 RDU: 02/13 4 1899 10 1899 02/14 -2 1899 27 1916 FAY: 02/13 14 1973 32 1955 02/14 12 1968 33 1916 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 7 PM EST TODAY FOR NCZ010-011-026>028-041>043-077-078-085-086-088-089. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ELLIS NEAR TERM...ELLIS SHORT TERM...ELLIS LONG TERM...BSD AVIATION...ELLIS CLIMATE...RAH

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