Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 170558 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 158 AM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Cool and dry high pressure will build into the Mid-atlantic today. The high pressure system will moderate and persist into the first part of the weekend. A cold front will approach the region late in the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 719 PM Monday... Low-level dry air advection in the wake of the cold front will result in continuation of the west-east clearing trend through the evening with clear skies expected everywhere overnight. Strong CAA overnight will result in much cooler temperatures than we have become accustomed to over the past couple of weeks, with jacket/sweater wearing temperatures down into the lower to mid 40s tonight. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/... As of 250 PM Monday... With the cold front exiting to the east high pressure will begin to build over the area with the high centered to the northwest of the forecast area. This will leave very light northeasterly flow over much of the CWA but plenty of insolation as the airmass is dry enough to inhibit any kind of cloud cover. Even so high temperatures are only expected to rise into the mid 60s by Tuesday afternoon. With a very dry airmass in place and mostly calm and clear conditions overnight, Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning is shaping up to be the coldest night of the season so far. Thickness values in the Triad will get down to 1329 m which translates to a low temperature potentially as low as the mid 30s. There is the potential for some patchy frost in the rural areas west of highway 1 but a couple of mitigating factors could be the lack of moisture and also the potential for a very light stir of wind as positioning of the surface and 700 mb high will not be exactly ideal. Will mention in the HWO for now but no plans for a frost advisory at this time. Lows in the mid 30s to low 40s with warmest temps in the southeast. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 250 PM Monday... The long term forecast will be dominated by high pressure anchored in place over central NC. This will give us several days of blue skies and cool temperatures. Expect that temperature trend to moderate through the week a little with highs starting out in the upper 60s to low 70s early in the week rising to the mid to upper 70s by the end of the weekend. The next slight chance for rain comes into the forecast early next week as a potential low pressure system moves north out of the Gulf of Mexico but there is a huge amount of uncertainty in the long term forecast regarding this feature at this time. Lows during this time moderating from the low to mid 40s up to the mid 50s to upper 60s by the end of the forecast period. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 155 AM Tuesday... High confidence of VFR conditions and fair weather through the 24-hour TAF period as surface high pressure builds into the region. A strong upper-level jet stream will bring periods of thin cirrus clouds across mainly eastern locations today, otherwise skies will clear through Wednesday morning. Winds will remain northerly today at 6 to 10 kts with an occasional gust of 12-15kts, especially across the eastern Piedmont and Coastal Plain this afternoon. Winds will become light tonight. Looking beyond the 24 hour TAF period...Surface high pressure will persist across the area into the weekend. This will result in a period of generally fair weather with VFR conditions. One exception will be the potential for some patchy daybreak stratus across the Coastal Plain on Thursday and Saturday mornings. -Blaes
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BLAES NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...RE LONG TERM...RE AVIATION...BLAES

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