Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 240710 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 310 AM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A Piedmont trough will extend from Virginia into South Carolina through Tuesday. A cold front will drop south into North Carolina on Tuesday and then stall across the region on Wednesday and Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 250 AM Monday... Both the surface and upper level troughs will remain over the region through tonight. Southerly flow will continue to advect warm moist air into the region, however models suggest overcast skies lingering through much of the afternoon, mainly across the southeast half of Central NC. The cloud cover will impede temperature rises, capping highs off in the low to mid 90s. Keep in mind should the clouds break in the southeast earlier, temperatures and heat indices will be higher. Based on the current forecast, expect max heat indices to be in the mid 90s in the Triad, near 100 degrees in the Triangle, and possibly touching 105 degrees for an hour at Fayetteville. The result will be a more comfortable feeling day than the previous ones, though it will still be hot. Lows will be similar to previous nights, bottoming out in the low to mid 70s. Showers and thunderstorms will again be possible, mainly across the south and southeast during the afternoon and evening, tapering off again after sunset. Some models suggest that convection will be suppressed, largely due to the clouds and resultant reduction in daytime heating. With upper level disturbances moving through the base of the trough and the continued moist airmass, will indicate the chance for convection during the aft/eve. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Monday... The upper level low will pull away to the northeast leading to a deamplification of the trough over the Atlantic Coast on Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front will approach from the north, though models suggest it will get hung up along or just south of the NC/VA border through Tuesday night. This boundary will push the surface trough farther to the southeast. Expect a decrease in dewpoint temperatures during this time as the surface flow in proximity to the boundary becomes more northerly. Southerly flow may still persist across the south however, with the best chances for convection in the vicinity of the lingering surface trough where theta-e advection is greatest. Highs on Tuesday will generally be in the low 90s, with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s once again. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 310 AM Monday... Surface high pressure over the northeastern CONUS will extend into the region on Wednesday as a frontal zone lingers south of the CWA. This will be our first break from 90 degree temperatures as highs are expected to be in the mid to upper 80s which is actually below normal for this time of year by a few degrees. This high will remain over the area on Thursday as well although temperatures will begin to creep back towards the 90 degree mark. Although diurnal showers and a possible thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, these days should be fairly dry. Lows in the lower 70s. By Friday, a developing low pressure system, spurred on by a shortwave upper trough, will cross the mid-Atlantic states and move off the coast. As it does so, an east-west oriented front will sag southward towards central NC. Timing in both the GFS and ECMWF solutions is fairly similar and it looks like enhanced precipitation will begin at some point Friday afternoon/evening and continue through Saturday as a secondary low develops along the front. Some uncertainty remains in just how far south the frontal zone will progress which could leave our forecast area dry for Sunday but it is entirely possible that the southern half of the area still experiences precipitation associated with this boundary. After a brief stint back in the 90s on Friday, temperatures will return to the mid to upper 80s for the remainder of the forecast period.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 145 AM Monday... 24-Hour TAF period: VFR conditions expected throughout much of the period, however there is a chance for sub-vfr cigs and visbys should storms move over a terminal. With the rain that has fallen in the past 12 hours or so, some fog/low stratus could develop tonight, but should clear up after sunrise. Clouds will likely stick around for much of the daytime hours, especially the farther southeast (KFAY) you go, however cigs should remain above VFR. Looking ahead: Mainly VFR conditions expected through the work week with scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. This could result in some restrictions in morning fog/stratus or storms with the greatest risk late in the work week. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BLAES NEAR TERM...KC SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...Ellis AVIATION...KC/Badgett

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