Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 301922 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 320 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. A WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN WARM AND SLIGHTLY HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 320 PM SATURDAY... SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH S/W RIDGE OVER THE CAROLINAS TRAPPING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MAINTAINING A LOW DECK OF STRATUS ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NC AT MID AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION IS THE FAR SOUTHERN-SW COUNTIES WHERE PARTIAL BREAKS ARE OCCURRING (AS PER VISIBLE IMAGERY). THIS PARTIAL SUN HAS AIDED TO BOOST TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S. OTHERWISE TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S. BULK OF CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR SW COUNTIES WHERE MODEST INSTABILITY AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG A STALLED SFC BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS THE STALLED SFC FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NWD AS A WARM FRONT. NEAR TERM MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO OUR WESTERN-NW COUNTIES. THERE IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. OTHERWISE EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS WILL PREVAIL WHILE SFC WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER FROM AN ELY TO A SOUTH-SELY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 60S SOUTH TO THE MID/UPPER 50S NE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 320 PM SATURDAY... SFC WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD AND EXITING THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL NC EARLY SUNDAY. SWLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL ADVECT A WARM MOIST AIR MASS INTO CENTRAL NC. WHILE EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...ENOUGH BREAK MAY DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY TO ALLOW THE LOWER HALF OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG OR SEVERE AS BULK EFFECTIVE WIND SHEAR INCREASES LATE IN THE DAY TO 35-40KTS (AID TO ORGANIZE CELLS INTO BROKEN BANDS)...AND SBCAPE TOPS OUT AROUND 2000J/KG. MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL. BULK OF CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH AFTER 02Z THOUGH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT. MAX TEMPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDENT UPON WHEN/IF BREAKS DEVELOP IN THE LOW OVERCAST AND DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION. SEE LITTLE REASON TO DEVIATE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST OF MID/UPPER 70S NORTH HALF TO 80/LOWER 80S SOUTH. MN TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT LOW-MID 60S.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 350 AM SATURDAY... DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. MID-LEVEL DRYING AND STRONGER BL MIXING WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN/WESTERN PIEDMONT...FOCUSING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AN COASTAL PLAIN. MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY...OFFERING A BETTER FOCUS FOR CONVECTION MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT SETTLES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE THEN FALLS FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN US AND SHORTWAVES DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA RESULT INTO A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. THE EVENTUAL AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH IS UNCERTAIN...BUT THE EC ENSEMBLE SUGGESTS 2-3 STD BELOW NORMAL OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND THE OPERATIONAL GFS SETTLES AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN SUGGESTS PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...WITH A SURFACE LOW LIKELY TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY THURSDAY...AND DAILY HIGHS AT LEAST A COUPLE CATEGORIES BELOW NORMAL...IF NOT MORE. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 150 PM SATURDAY... WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 00Z WITH POCKETS OF IFR CEILINGS PROBABLE IN VICINITY OF THE TRIAD TERMINALS. NOW APPEARS THAT ANY SHOWERS/ISOLATED T-STORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO OUR FAR WESTERN-SW COUNTIES. A STRAY SHOWER MAY SKIRT CLOSE TO KINT BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER LATER TONIGHT RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS. ANY AREAS OF RAIN SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE WESTERN-NW PIEDMONT THOUGH NOW APPEARS THAT PRECIP INTENSITY WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL DRIFT NWD ACROSS CENTRAL NC LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. WINDS WILL VEER QUICKLY FROM AN EAST-SE DIRECTION AT THE SFC TO A SSW FLOW A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET OFF THE SURFACE. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL REACH SPEEDS OF 30-35KTS...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 40KTS IN VICINITY OF KINT/KGSO AFTER 09Z. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE INCLUSION OF LLWS IN THE TAF. BREEZY SW SFC WINDS PROBABLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO THE LOW END OF VFR PARAMETERS. AFTERNOON HEATING OF THE MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN VARIABLE AVIATION CONDITIONS. IT IS HIGHLY PROBABLE THAT PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR PARAMETERS WILL OCCUR DUE TO CEILINGS...IN ADDITION TO SCATTERED CONVECTION. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WSS NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...22 AVIATION...WSS

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