Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 291824 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 224 PM EDT Sun May 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Tropical cyclone Bonnie will track inland along the South Carolina coast today, then turn northeast and track along the North Carolina coast through early next week. && .NEAR TERM /Today and Tonight/...
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As of 220 PM EDT... Tropical cyclone Bonnie has tracked inland over southern SC. Shower activity increased over central NC coincident with Bonnie`s landfall this morning, with the heaviest activity early this afternoon focused invof an inverted trough/coastal front south and southeast of the Triangle where PWAT values are AOA 2.00" and weak diurnal destabilization has yielded 250-500 J/kg of mlcape. The primary forecast concern this afternoon will be a potential for isolated flash flooding in areas repeatedly affected by heavy showers and a low-end potential for a brief/isolated tornado from the Triangle southward into the sandhills and eastward into the coastal plain where the latest SPC mesoanalysis data indicated supercell composite parameter values of 1-2. Given a mean storm motion from the SE (~160degrees), cyclonic updrafts exhibiting deviant motion will tend to propagate to the N/NNE (from ~190 degrees). A rotating updraft exhibiting deviant motion toward the N/NNE and echo tops approaching 40 KFT was observed in Lenoir county late this morning, and brief periods of weak low/mid-level rotation have been observed in additional updrafts since then. This lends strong support to the notion that a low-end risk for a brief/isolated tornado is present south and east of the Highway 1 corridor this afternoon through this evening. -Vincent
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&& .SHORT TERM /Monday through Monday night/... As of 215 PM Sunday... The remnants of TD Bonnie are expected to track very slowly ENE from northeastern SC into southeastern NC Monday and Monday night. Additional locally heavy rain is expected over portions of central NC with the main focus likely along or near the track of the low. This would place the SE Piedmont, Sandhills, and Coastal Plain in the heaviest QPF of 1 to 1.5 inches with locally higher totals. POP and QPF will be lower back in the NW Piedmont where some drier low level air will advect off the higher terrain into the far western Piedmont lowering the PW`s and lift there. Skies should range from Cloudy down east to variably cloudy in the western Piedmont. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will affect the eastern third of the region with much more scattered showers to the west. Highs Monday will again be held down by the clouds and rain, especially in the east where readings will be in the 70s to near 80. Highs in the western Piedmont should be around 80. Lows generally in the 65-70 range. && .LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/... As of 205 PM Sunday... The remnants of TD Bonnie are still expected to be a factor into Tuesday and possibly Wednesday for eastern sections of NC. We will follow the latest NHC forecasts which indicates a very slow moving depression finally beginning to get steered a bit quicker NE along the coast Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. Models are in good agreement in depicting the highest POP near the coast along a low level boundary and very near the track of the low. This appears very reasonable although there will be a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms inland with the QPF much lower than along the track of the low. QPF of 0.25 to 0.50 with locally higher totals can be expected over the far eastern Coastal Plain with QPF of 0.25 or less inland over much of central NC. Day time temperatures will be held in check but the humidity levels will remain high. Expect highs to reach back into the 80-85 range Tuesday and Wednesday. Lows in the mid to upper 60s. Later in the week, expect the influence of the TD to give way as the remnant low is bumped east as mid level troughing moves out of the Rockies and heads eastward. This system should approach the Appalachians and mid-Atlantic region next weekend and is expected to bring significant convective rains at times by the end of the week into the weekend. A slow moving cold front is expected to stall over the SE states by the weekend focusing heavy QPF. Lows will be well above normal 65-70 and highs in the 80s cooling into the 75-82 range by Sunday. && .AVIATION /18Z Sunday through Friday/...
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As of 200 PM Sunday... 24-hr TAF Period: MVFR/IFR conditions associated with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be most likely to affect the RDU/FAY/RWI terminals this afternoon and evening, though sub-vfr conditions will remain possible at the Triad terminals as well. Similar conditions will persist through the remainder of the TAF period in association with nearby tropical cyclone Bonnie, located inland over southern SC at 18Z. Bonnie (or Bonnie`s remnants) are expected to stall, then track slowly northeast through coastal NC onMonday and Tuesday. Looking ahead: Sub-VFR condition associated with showers, isolated thunderstorms and low ceilings will persist through mid-week as Bonnie`s remnants track slowly norheast along the NC coast. The FAY/RWI terminals are most likely to be affected, followed by RDU, and finally INT/GSO. -Vincent
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Vincent NEAR TERM...Vincent SHORT TERM...Badgett LONG TERM...Badgett AVIATION...Vincent is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.