Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS62 KRAH 221409
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1005 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2016
High pressure will bring much cooler and drier air to the region through
the weekend. Another cold front is forecast to move through the state
Monday, bringing additional cool and dry air.
.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --As of 1005 AM Saturday...
Cold advection is noted in regional raobs this morning, albeit
weaker than the surge last evening. Winds up to 30kt were sampled
below in the subsidence in version at GSO, and 17-22kt gusts are
already getting going, with some higher gusts to 28kt in the
somewhat expected area from GSO to TDF (mountain wave enhancement?).
These should continue for most of the day and then subside quickly
this evening. Orographic cirrus over upstate SC should thing out
through the morning hours and not have any impact on central NC,
with clear skies and dry adiabatic mixing technique suggest highs of
Tonight, the center of the high pressure is forecast to remain just to
the SW, over GA and upstate SC. This is not perfect for maximum
radiational cooling as some light stirring of a breeze will likely
persist through midnight. After that, it appears that the boundary
layer will decouple in most areas allowing a good 6-7 hours of radiational
cooling. Lows in the mid to upper 30s should be the result over the
rural Piedmont and possibly NW Sandhills (Moore, Lee Counties). Urban
areas should be 5 degrees warmer. There could be some light or scattered
frost in areas that reach the mid 30s. However, a widespread killing
frost is not expected. We will include this information in the Hazardous
Weather Outlook. Clear skies are expected tonight. - Badgett
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.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 AM Saturday...
Moderation will occur in temperatures as the winds become westerly or west-
southwesterly Sunday afternoon. Skies will be Sunny as the high pressure remains
south of the area. Highs will moderate about 5 degrees or reach the 65-70
range Sunday. Lows Sunday night will be mostly 40-45 except some upper 30s
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 225 AM Saturday...
Dry weather and seasonable temperatures are expected at least
through the middle of the upcoming work week. A backdoor cold front
will surge south as surface high pressure builds southeast out the
upper mid west and down the Atlantic coast on Monday. The cold air
advection will be delayed until late Monday into Monday night, so
highs should have ample time to climb into the mid 70s, with lows
Tuesday morning in the low to mid 40s. The cooler airmass will be
locked in place Tuesday through Thursday, with highs each day mainly
in the mid to upper 60s after morning lows in the mid 40s.
Next frontal system will be approaching late Thursday and Thursday
night and we should see increased cloud coverage and erosion of the
high pressure ridge as southwest flow ensues. Modest warm air
advection offset by cloud coverage should produce highs just a
touch warmer on Thursday, mostly in the upper 60s.
Beyond this point the latest GFS solution features a cutoff low
digging south which delays eastward progress of our next surface
front and associated moisture advection. Will maintain ongoing
forecast trend which banks on a cleaner, progressive frontal passage
featuring a small chance of showers later Thursday and Thursday
night per the ECMWF. Highs Friday are around 70, but could easily
tip a category either way due to lack of confidence in the strength
and timing of cool air advection behind the front.
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 740 AM Saturday...
VFR conditions are expected through the weekend as high pressure
builds in from the SW.
NW winds at 10-20kt should gust to near 25kt today then diminish to
Looking Ahead: VFR conditions are expected to rule for the
remainder of the weekend and through the majority of next week.