Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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471 FXUS62 KRAH 161849 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 250 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will exit the coast this afternoon. Cool high pressure will build into the region tonight and Tuesday and persist into the first part of the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 250 PM Monday... Band of ana-frontal precip will exit the coastal plain counties in the next couple of hours. Meanwhile, back-edge of low clouds are approaching the Triangle and central Piedmont/Sandhills counties. This clearing trend will continue to spread east through the remainder of the afternoon/early evening with clear skies expected everywhere overnight. Strong CAA this evening and overnight will result in much cooler temperatures than we have become accustomed to over the past couple of weeks, with jacket/sweater wearing temperatures down into the lower to mid 40s tonight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 250 PM Monday... With the cold front exiting to the east high pressure will begin to build over the area with the high centered to the northwest of the forecast area. This will leave very light northeasterly flow over much of the CWA but plenty of insolation as the airmass is dry enough to inhibit any kind of cloud cover. Even so high temperatures are only expected to rise into the mid 60s by Tuesday afternoon. With a very dry airmass in place and mostly calm and clear conditions overnight, Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning is shaping up to be the coldest night of the season so far. Thickness values in the Triad will get down to 1329 m which translates to a low temperature potentially as low as the mid 30s. There is the potential for some patchy frost in the rural areas west of highway 1 but a couple of mitigating factors could be the lack of moisture and also the potential for a very light stir of wind as positioning of the surface and 700 mb high will not be exactly ideal. Will mention in the HWO for now but no plans for a frost advisory at this time. Lows in the mid 30s to low 40s with warmest temps in the southeast.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 250 PM Monday... The long term forecast will be dominated by high pressure anchored in place over central NC. This will give us several days of blue skies and cool temperatures. Expect that temperature trend to moderate through the week a little with highs starting out in the upper 60s to low 70s early in the week rising to the mid to upper 70s by the end of the weekend. The next slight chance for rain comes into the forecast early next week as a potential low pressure system moves north out of the Gulf of Mexico but there is a huge amount of uncertainty in the long term forecast regarding this feature at this time. Lows during this time moderating from the low to mid 40s up to the mid 50s to upper 60s by the end of the forecast period.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 144 PM Monday... Surface cold front and accompanying band of rain showers and associated MVFR ceilings will exit eastern terminals(KRWI and KFAY) between 19 to 20z. As we`ve seen at KINT, KGSO, and KRDU, post- frontal low-level dry air advection will quickly (1 to 2 hours immediately behind the front) scour out any lingering sub-VFR ceilings, with VFR conditions expected through the remainder of the period. Expect occasional northerly wind gusts into the teens/lower 20s through the afternoon, with winds diminishing this evening at 5 to 8 kts. Looking beyond the 24 hour TAF period...Surface high pressure will build into the region tonight and Tuesday and will persist across the area into the weekend, resulting in a prolonged period of dry VFR conditions. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CBL NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...RTE LONG TERM...RTE AVIATION...CBL

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