


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --928 FXUS62 KRAH 141749 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 148 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Sub-tropical high pressure will extend from near Bermuda to the Carolinas throughout the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 240 AM Monday... Isolated flash flooding is again possible this afternoon and evening, with marginal to slight risks in place. The highest probabilities will be in the NW-N Piedmont regions. There is also a marginal risk of a few damaging wet microbursts with the stronger storms this afternoon into the early evening, mainly over the Piedmont. The combination of strong heating, very weak steering flow, left over outflow boundaries, and high (2+ inches) precipitable water will lead to scattered slow moving, heavy rain producing thunderstorms this afternoon into the evening. The highest probabilities of thunderstorms is over the NW-N Piedmont per the latest CAMS and guidance. This is where the latest CAMS suggest the higher POP and this goes along with the latest soil moisture levels that remain very high in the northern part of the Triad east to Hillsborough and Roxboro. Just as in recent days, high instability will develop with heating. MLCapes will reach over 2500 j/kg and this may lead to isolated damaging wind events, mainly in the Piedmont region. Highs will be within a degree or two of the highs Sunday. Expect mostly 90 to 95. The chance of thunderstorms will linger well into the evening and early morning Tuesday. The highest probabilities this evening appear to be over the north-central and NE portions of the Piedmont into the Coastal Plain. Lows 70-75 with patchy late night stratus and some fog. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 216 AM Monday... The highest probabilities of thunderstorms and flash flooding may shift slightly west Tuesday afternoon and evening as the guidance and CAMS suggest the western Piedmont into the NW Piedmont may very well have the higher chances of slow moving PM thunderstorms. Combined with the existing wet soils and nearby urban locations, there will still be at least a marginal risk of flash flooding on Tuesday afternoon into the evening. There is still a chance of thunderstorms in the south and east; however, ridging aloft should extend a bit further inland Tuesday afternoon possibly limiting some of the coverage of convection there. Highs 88-94 in general, with lows 70-75. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 335 AM Monday... * A typical summertime pattern but with more extreme (above average) geopotential heights and temperatures than previous 30-year climate records A sub-tropical anticyclone will progress from the cntl N. Atlantic to the Southeast and lwr MS Valley through the weekend, with associated standardized 500 height anomalies of generally 1-2 sigma along the South Atlantic coast and a plume of continued 2" PWs on its nrn periphery over cntl NC, through the period. As the center of the sub-tropical ridge drifts toward the lwr MS Valley, mid-level flow may assume a more nwly to wnwly component and direct shortwave impulses and/or MCVs into the srn Middle Atlantic by Sat or Sun. Underlying surface high pressure will span from near Bermuda to the South Atlantic coast, with varying degrees of troughing on its wrn/nwrn periphery, in the lee of the srn and cntl Appalachians, and also a daily sea breeze. A convective outflow-reinforced front may briefly settle across VA and perhaps nern NC next weekend, as the aforementioned flow aloft veers and introduces the possibility of very weakly falling heights aloft. The increasingly-influential, subsident ridging aloft will tend to suppress diurnal convection away from the Blue Ridge/terrain forcing, Piedmont trough, and sea breeze, through at least Fri - with probably only scattered coverage along those features. It will otherwise remain hot, or become increasingly-so, and humid. High temperatures will likely trend to one or two categories above average and low temperatures two to three categories above average. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --As of 148 PM Monday... Scattered afternoon showers and storms may persist well into the evening and possibly into the overnight hours, particularly near the northern terminals, including KRDU and KRWI. Outside of convection, VFR conditions are expected for the first half of tonight. However, there are signals that areas of low stratus could develop across much of the area between 06 to 12z, potentially resulting in a period of MVFR to IFR restrictions before lifting to VFR during the mid to late hours Tuesday morning(14 to 16z). Another round of afternoon and evening storms are expected again Tuesday, with the highest chances expected across the western Piedmont terminals. Outlook: Sub-tropical high pressure over the western Atlantic will favor a typical summertime regime of scattered PM convection and patchy late night and early morning fog/stratus through late week.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett/MWS NEAR TERM...Badgett SHORT TERM...Badgett LONG TERM...MWS AVIATION...CBL/Badgett