Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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253 FXUS62 KRAH 270124 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 924 PM EDT Thu May 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS...High pressure will extend over the area through Friday. Meanwhile, a storm system will develop over the western Atlantic and drift toward the Southeast U.S. coast through the holiday weekend. && .NEAR TERM /through tonight/...
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As of 924 PM Thursday... Convection associated with the lingering upper shear axis over western NC, caught/trapped with in the upper level ridge axis in place across the region has diminished with loss of heating. Outside of an isolated shower across the far western Piedmont, remainder of the night will be dry. The continued modification of the low level atmosphere along with patchy mid level cloudiness will support mild overnight temperatures. Min temps in the mid 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /Friday through Friday Night/... As of 335 PM Thursday... A narrow ridge of high pressure aloft will extend west-east across central NC. This feature will maintain a mid level cap and inhibit convective development over most of the region. The exception may be the far west-nw where outflow boundaries from overnight convection and linger weak upper level disturbance may enable an isolated shower or storm to develop during the heat of the day. Low level thicknesses comparable to today, supportive of afternoon temps well into the 80s, near 90 in the Sandhills and Coastal Plain. Continued mild overnight with min temps in the mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/... As of 230 PM Thursday... The main forecast concern for this period continues to be the potential tropical/sub-tropical development of an area of low pressure between the Bahamas and Bermuda this weekend. The upper level ridge responsible for the recent quiet weather will break down as the coastal low develops. To the west, an upper level trough will linger for the weekend. A shortwave will progress from the southern Rockies northeastward along the trough axis toward the Great Lakes. As the upper level short wave moves through the Great Lakes, the northeastward moving coastal (tropical) low will progress toward the SC coast. As of the most recent runs, the models indicate these two features interacting Sunday night/Monday. The upper level shortwave could absorb the coastal low (possible tropical system) on Monday. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty on whether the low will move up the Mid-Atlantic coast or hand out along the Carolina coast before slowly moving inland. Regardless of this, the majority of this period appears to be fairly unsettled, with chances for convection, highest in the aft/eve, everyday. Much of the coverage, duration, and timing of convection will depend on how the system evolves and thus confidence is still somewhat low. With the strong advection of Atlantic moisture into the region on the northern edge of the low, expect increasing clouds from the east on Saturday, though much of the day will remain dry. Cloudy skies could persist through much of the period. Temperatures through the period: with the increasing clouds and chances for rainfall, expect highs to decrease from the mid 80s on Saturday, to upper 70s to low 80s Sunday. Highs should slowly moderate back into the mid 80s by the middle of the week. Overnight lows will remain fairly steady in the mid to upper 60s. && .AVIATION /00Z Friday through Tuesday/... As of 726 PM Thursday... VFR conditions will persist across central NC through Friday. The exception will be a small risk for early morning fog, limiting the visibility to MVFR criteria for a brief period. Aviation conditions Saturday will vary between VFR and MVFR criteria as increasing moisture results in lowering cloud bases and an enhanced threat for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Sub VFR conditions with showers and low ceilings are likely Sunday and Memorial Day due to an area of low pressure that will likely be at or near the coast then. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CBL/BLS NEAR TERM...CBL/WSS SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...KC AVIATION...WSS/PWB

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