Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 200730 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 330 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A quasi-stationary frontal zone across the eastern Carolinas will continue to weaken and gradually dissipate by tonight. A strong cold front will approach the area on Wednesday and reach the coast on Thursday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 330 AM Sunday... Heights aloft will rise in the wake of the low-amplitude shortwave trough moving out of the region with a 594 dm upper level anticyclone strengthening over the SE US through Monday. Meanwhile downstairs, quasi-stationary frontal zone across eastern NC will gradually weaken/wash-out today and into tonight. Warm drier air aloft will largely suppress any convection today, with the exception being across far southern Sampson County in vicinity of the sea breeze front and the lingering dissipating frontal zone. Highs in the lower to mid 90s with lower dewpoint air in the mid 60s NW to near 70 SE keeping heat indices below 100 F. Onset of southerly return flow Sunday night will mark the return of low-level moisture and possibly some stratus Monday morning. Lows 70 to 75.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 330 AM Sunday... Central NC will reside under the influence of deep layer ridging on Monday, which is a good thing in terms of limited cloud cover across the area as eclipse viewing party commences Monday afternoon, with largely just some fair wx cu and thin cirrus cloud cover expected. Any convection will be isolated and generally east of the in vicinity of the sea breeze and to our west along the terrain induced differential heating over the mtns. Highs again in the lower 90s. Lows 70 to 75.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 AM Sunday... Relative dry but warm weather continues through Tuesday in return flow regime ahead of our next frontal system which will be passing through the area on Wednesday. Chance of rain will ramp up ahead of the front on Wednesday, with chances lingering into Thursday in the east. Highs will peak both days in the low to mid 90s, with some upper 80s across the north behind the front on Thursday. The drier and cooler airmass behind the front will settle down the east coast Thursday into the weekend, with highs mostly in the low and mid 80s each day after morning lows in the low and mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 244 PM Friday... Relatively dry but hot weather continues through Tuesday in a return flow regime ahead of our next frontal system which will be passing through the area on Wednesday. Chance of rain will ramp up ahead of the front on Wednesday, with chances lingering into Thursday in the east. Highs will peak both days in the low to mid 90s, with some upper 80s across the north behind the front on Thursday. The drier and cooler airmass behind the front will settle down the east coast Thursday into the weekend, with highs mostly in the low and mid 80s each day after morning lows in the low and mid 60s. && .AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 115 AM Sunday... 24 Hour TAF Period: Clear skies and calm winds will support the development of fog between 06 to 12z, mainly across eastern portions of the forecast where very moist low-level air remains pooled along the stalled frontal zone. The latest HRRR suggest visibility restrictions could fall as low as LIFR in dense fog at our eastern most TAF sites (KRWI and KFAY). Will introduce predominate IFR ceilings at KRWI and KFAY beginning at 08 to 09z, with a tempo group for LIFR conditions at these locations between 09 to 13z. Any fog that develops should lift and dissipate by 14z, with VFR conditions and dry weather are expected for Sunday afternoon. Outlook: The threat of mainly afternoon and evening showers or thunderstorms and late night/early morning fog/stratus is expected to increase a bit on Monday and Tuesday. A strong cold front is expected to approach the area on Wednesday and reach the coast on Thursdays bringing a greater chance of adverse aviation conditions in showers and thunderstorms. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CBL NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...MLM AVIATION...CBL/BLAES

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