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000
FXUS62 KRAH 200730
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
330 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
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A quasi-stationary frontal zone across the eastern Carolinas will
continue to weaken and gradually dissipate by tonight. A strong cold
front will approach the area on Wednesday and reach the coast on
Thursday.
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&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 330 AM Sunday...

Heights aloft will rise in the wake of the low-amplitude shortwave
trough moving out of the region with a 594 dm upper level
anticyclone strengthening over the SE US through Monday. Meanwhile
downstairs, quasi-stationary frontal zone across eastern NC will
gradually weaken/wash-out today and into tonight. Warm drier air
aloft will largely suppress any convection today, with the exception
being  across far southern Sampson County in vicinity of the sea
breeze front and the lingering dissipating frontal zone.

Highs in the lower to mid 90s with lower dewpoint air in the mid 60s
NW to near 70 SE keeping heat indices below 100 F.
Onset of southerly return flow Sunday night will mark the return of
low-level moisture and possibly some stratus Monday morning. Lows 70
to 75.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 330 AM Sunday...

Central NC will reside under the influence of deep layer ridging on
Monday, which is a good thing in terms of limited cloud cover across
the area as eclipse viewing party commences Monday afternoon, with
largely just some fair wx cu and thin cirrus cloud cover expected.
Any convection will be isolated and generally east of the in
vicinity of the sea breeze and to our west along the terrain induced
differential heating over the mtns.

Highs again in the lower 90s. Lows 70 to 75.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 AM Sunday...

Relative dry but warm weather continues through Tuesday in return
flow regime ahead of our next frontal system which will be passing
through the area on Wednesday. Chance of rain will ramp up ahead of
the front on Wednesday, with chances lingering into Thursday in the
east. Highs will peak both days in the low to mid 90s, with some
upper 80s across the north behind the front on Thursday.

The drier and cooler airmass behind the front will settle down the
east coast Thursday into the weekend, with highs mostly in the low
and mid 80s each day after morning lows in the low and mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 244 PM Friday...

Relatively dry but hot weather continues through Tuesday in a return
flow regime ahead of our next frontal system which will be passing
through the area on Wednesday. Chance of rain will ramp up ahead of
the front on Wednesday, with chances lingering into Thursday in the
east. Highs will peak both days in the low to mid 90s, with some
upper 80s across the north behind the front on Thursday.

The drier and cooler airmass behind the front will settle down the
east coast Thursday into the weekend, with highs mostly in the low
and mid 80s each day after morning lows in the low and mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 115 AM Sunday...

24 Hour TAF Period: Clear skies and calm winds will support the
development of fog between 06 to 12z, mainly across eastern portions
of the forecast where very moist low-level air remains pooled along
the stalled frontal zone. The latest HRRR suggest visibility
restrictions could fall as low as LIFR in dense fog at our eastern
most TAF sites (KRWI and KFAY).  Will introduce predominate IFR
ceilings at KRWI and KFAY beginning at 08 to 09z, with a tempo group
for LIFR conditions at these locations between 09 to 13z.

Any fog that develops should lift and dissipate by 14z, with VFR
conditions and dry weather are expected for Sunday afternoon.

Outlook: The threat of mainly afternoon and evening showers or
thunderstorms and late night/early morning fog/stratus is expected
to increase a bit on Monday and Tuesday. A strong cold front is
expected to approach the area on Wednesday and reach the coast on
Thursdays bringing a greater chance of adverse aviation conditions
in showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...CBL/BLAES