Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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715 FXUS62 KRAH 250002 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 800 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A surface trough will extend from central Virginia southwest into central North Carolina through tonight. A cold front will drop south into the region late tonight and on Tuesday. The front will stall across the Carolinas on Wednesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 800 PM Monday... Uneventful evening, convection-wise. Moist and much more unstable airmass over the southeast would be conducive to showers this evening given a modicum of lift, which does not appear to be forthcoming. Hence will lower PoPs to ~20% and confine these to a single tier of counties from Scotland to Wayne, and further reduce/eliminate PoPs after midnight. Otherwise steady as she goes...mostly clear with mins 70 to 75.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 PM Monday... The main portion of the upper level trough across the Northeast and Mid Atlantic shifts east and lifts on Tuesday and Tuesday night while a shear axis lays down east-northeast to west-southwest from near Cape Hatteras to central GA. The latest GFS and EC both try to close off a portion of the shear axis over eastern GA and the SC coast. At the same time, the associated cold front drops south into NC on Tuesday afternoon and evening and then stalls toward the NC and SC border by daybreak Wednesday. This is a more aggressive and southward solution than recent model runs. This trend would tend to confine precipitation further south and east and could result in additional cooling across our northern tier with the possibility of a layering of additional stratus and then some clearing near the VA border. Not ready to jump all in on this solution, but have trended the forecast that way. Highs on Tuesday will range in the lower 90s but could be cooler near the VA border if the cooler air is aggressive. Lows Tuesday night will range in the 68 to 75 range. -Blaes && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 220 PM Monday... Surface high pressure over the northeastern CONUS will extend into the region on Wednesday as a frontal zone lingers south of the CWA. This will be our first break from 90 degree temperatures as highs are expected to be in the mid to upper 80s. This high will remain over the area on Thursday as well although max temperatures will climb into lower 90s. Although diurnal showers and a possible thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, these days should be fairly dry. By Friday, a developing low pressure system, spurred on by a shortwave upper trough, will cross the mid-Atlantic states and move off the coast. As it does so, an east-west oriented front will sag southward towards central NC. Timing in both the GFS and ECMWF solutions is fairly similar and it looks like enhanced precipitation will begin at some point Friday afternoon/evening and continue through the weekend. Highest chance for rain will lie across eastern areas Sunday and Monday. After a brief stint back in the 90s on Friday, temperatures will return to the mid to upper 80s through Monday. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 750 PM Monday... 24-Hour TAF period... VFR conditions are generally expected to continue through the 24 hour TAF period. A very small chance of a brief showers remain this evening at KRWI or KFAY, though confidence is way too low to include in the TAFS. A brief period of sub-VFR conditions will be possible, primarily at KFAY, during the early morning hours of Tuesday. Any sub-VFR cigs and/or visbys should become VFR by at least mid morning. A cold front is expected to approach/move into the area late Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms will be possible in advance of the cold front late Tuesday afternoon/evening. Coverage is expected to be sparse enough to not included any mention in the TAFs at this time though. Looking ahead... Primarily VFR conditions are expected through much of the work week with isolated to scattered, mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms expected, especially toward the end of the period. Areas of late night and morning stratus will be possible, especially Thursday into Saturday. && .EQUIPMENT... The KRAX WSR-88D will be down for the Service Life Extension Upgrade (SLEP) beginning this morning and likely lasting through Thursday or Friday. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BLAES NEAR TERM...mlm SHORT TERM...BLAES LONG TERM...RE/Franklin AVIATION...BSD/BLAES EQUIPMENT...BLAES

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