Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 241007 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 347 AM EST Fri Feb 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Strong high pressure aloft will be over the region today. The ridge will shift east and offshore in advance of a cold front that will cross the area on Saturday. Expect near record warmth ahead of the front, with cooler temperatures on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 315 AM FRIDAY... Another day of near or record warmth expected today. Strong upper ridging will extend from the Gulf of Mexico NE across the Carolinas and SE Virginia. The surface high pressure will extend from offshore to over the SE states including NC. There should be more cumulus and stratocumulus today with the uptick in the amount of low level moisture with the SE-S low level flow. However, Continued subsidence of dry air from aloft will allow for plenty of sunshine to break through. After some early morning stratus, especially over the west, expect partly sunny skies. Some patchy fog this morning is not expected to become widespread, nor dense. Highs today should be tempered a bit by the increase in low level moisture/cloudiness. Still, many areas should be near or exceed daily record highs for February 24. See the climate section below. Highs mostly 75-80, except lower 80s from Southern Pines to Fayetteville, and mid 70s from Winston-Salem to Roxboro. Tonight... the S-SW wind flow is forecast to begin to increase as a rather strong cold front approaches from the Ohio and Tennessee Valley regions late. A pre-frontal squall line is expected to push into the higher terrain overnight, but greatly weaken as it reaches the Appalachians. There will be increasing clouds overnight. Low stratus will increase in the western zones. Lows generally in the 55-60 range expected. Light S-SW winds 5-10 mph will increase to 10 mph overnight, keeping enough mixing to preclude any significant fog. We will keep a slight chance of a shower in the NW zones toward daybreak, due to the expected great weakening of the approaching convective line late. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 AM FRIDAY... The dynamics and moisture are expected to largely pass well north of NC Saturday with the storm track. The trailing cold front is expected to push east across the region during the afternoon and early evening. The GFS has sped up somewhat, but models generally force the fronts to quickly east into our region. Regardless, even most of the low level moisture/convergence/ and low level instability will remain from central VA northward with the front. We will maintain a low chance of a shower or isolated thunderstorm (with very marginal instability) noted. Highs should again soar into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Depending on the amount of sun in the Sandhills, some mid 80s are possible. QPF should be less than 0.10 north, and essentially nil across the south where hardly any chance of showers exist. Expect Variably cloudy skies becoming partly sunny. Surface winds will become more of an issue as they will increase to between 15 and 25 mph with gusts to 30-35 mph. Winds will become more W then WNW during the afternoon as the front comes through. Dew points will crash behind the front from the 50s into the 30s (20s NW). This dry wind and lowering RH may lead to some increasing fire weather concern, mainly in the lee of the mountains into the western Piedmont where the front will come through before peak heating. More on this in later forecasts. A freeze is possible for the NW and N Piedmont on Sunday night as winds die off and skies become clear. Lows 30-35 there, and 35-40 favored in the east. It should be too dry for frost in the west, and a bit too warm in the east. But sub-freezing lows may occur in the NW Piedmont to near Roxboro in the N Piedmont. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 345 AM Friday... Dry weather is expected Sunday through Monday morning as surface high pressure moves across the area. This should result in a return to more seasonal temps, with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s. A warming trend will commence on Monday as the surface high moves offshore. However, with deep southwesterly flow aloft we will be susceptible to disturbances moving across the area in the southwesterly flow aloft, along with lots of clouds and chances for showers and possibly some storms. Both the latest GFS and ECMWF show a disturbance moving across the area late Monday into Tuesday morning. Will raise pops some for this time frame, but keep them in the chance category for now and wait for more model run to run continuity. The next good chance for showers and some storms will be from a trailing cold front moving across the area Wednesday or Wednesday night as the main surface low is expected to track across the Great Lakes region into New England. Ahead of the front expect high temps will be in the 60s and 70s from Monday through Wednesday, with a return to temps closer to normal in the 50s and 60s across the area for Thursday. Low temps will follow a similar trend, remaining above normal through Thursday morning. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1255 AM Friday... 24 Hour TAF Period: Strong high pressure aloft will build over the region today, while surface high pressure continues to extend into the area. This will result in mainly VFR conditions for the 24 hour TAF period. However, with mostly clear skies and calm to light and variable winds we may see some fog or very low stratus develop this morning, especially at fog prone KRWI (where IFR/LIFR conditions will be possible). Elsewhere, expect we may see some MVFR/IFR visbys around daybreak. Any sub-VFR visbys should quickly lift within an hour of sunrise or so. However, we may see a brief period of MVFR stratocumulus from 13-16Z, before and cigs lift into the VFR range and further scatter. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected with south to southeasterly winds of 08 kts or less. Outlook: VFR conditions should hold through Fri evening, but once again sub-VFR stratus/fog are expected to form across central NC late Fri night, most likely after 08z, and these should trend to VFR before 14z Sat. A few showers and isolated storms are possible Sat afternoon, mainly INT/GSO/RDU, as a cold front crosses the area, however VFR conditions will dominate. VFR conditions will return Sat night, lasting through at least Mon as high pressure builds into and over the region. The chance for sub-VFR conditions and a few showers will return Mon night into Tue as a warm front shifts northward through the area. && .CLIMATE...
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Record highs for February 24 and 25: Greensboro: 79 (1982) and 81 (1930). Raleigh: 81 (1982) and 82 (1930). Fayetteville: 83 (1930) and 85 (1930).
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...Badgett SHORT TERM...Badgett LONG TERM...BSD AVIATION...BSD/Hartfield CLIMATE...Badgett is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.