Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 250140 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 940 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will push southeastward into central North Carolina tonight. This front will weaken as it pushes to the coast Sunday. A secondary cold front will sweep through the area late Monday, and this will be followed by high pressure building into the area through much of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 940 PM Saturday... Much of the earlier convection has moved off to the east of the forecast area at this hour with just some light rain remaining along the I-95 corridor. Going into the overnight hours, CAM models show activity coming to a close however some light showers now popping up along the VA border and looking at the surface observations this is with the actual surface front as dewpoints drop off dramatically behind these showers. Will watch this activity for any sustainable precipitation threat overnight. Expect some MVFR visibilities ahead of the front overnight with VFR expected back across the Triad. Lows tonight expected to be in the mid 60s across the NW Piedmont to the low 70s in the southeast. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM EDT Saturday... Subsidence behind the exiting frontal system and deep wly flow will lead to stable and drier conditions. A shower or two will be possible south of Goldsboro-Fayetteville line Sunday morning as the sfc cold front slowly exits the region. While it will remain warm Sunday afternoon with temps in the 85-90 degree range, lower dewpoints will aid to make it feel less oppressive. Drier air will continue to filter into central NC Sunday night, leading to mostly clear skies. Min temps 60-65 across the Piedmont to the upper 60s southeast. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 140 PM Saturday... A reinforcing dry cold front will move through the area late Monday/Monday night, ushering in even cooler air into the region. Highs Monday in advance of the front are expected to be in the 80s, with highs on Tuesday generally in the upper 70s to lower 80s with dewpoints in the 50s. A more pronounced mid/upper level disturbance is expected to move through the area on Tuesday/Tuesday evening. The GFS and ECMWF still differ on if any showers/storms will develop across the area with its passage. Given the expected dry airmass in place in advance of the feature, will limit pops to a slight chances and only mention showers for Tuesday. Surface high pressure will move across the area Wednesday and set up shop offshore Thursday through Saturday. This will result in maximum temperatures Wednesday and Thursday afternoon in the middle to upper 80s, with upper 80s to lower 90s on Friday and Saturday afternoon. As the airmass becomes increasingly moist and unstable, the chance for afternoon and evening convection will return by Saturday. && .AVIATION /00Z Sunday through Thursday/... As of 740 PM Saturday... Showers and thunderstorms will continue to plague RWI and FAY through 02z, with strong gusty winds and a period of MVFR cigs and IFR vsbys. An area of rain just behind the storms will bring an additional hour or two of MVFR vsbys, as are currently impacting RDU. Otherwise, after about 04z, confidence is high in VFR conditions at all central NC terminals for the rest of tonight, lasting through Sun, with one minor exception: Lingering low level moisture and light winds will bring a risk of MVFR fog late tonight at RWI/FAY. At INT/GSO/RDU, however, passage of a cold front, with lower humidity values, will favor VFR vsbys through the period, and cigs will be mainly above 8,000 ft AGL. Winds will be generally light, under 7 kts, mainly from the W, shifting to NW and N for Sun but remaining light. Looking beyond 00z Mon (Sun evening), VFR conditions are likely to hold through the upcoming work week. It will be overwhelmingly dry, with only a few showers expected with passage of a reinforcing cold front on Tue. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...Ellis SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...BSD/Franklin AVIATION...Hartfield is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.