Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS62 KRAH 301919
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
315 PM EDT Mon May 30 2016
.SYNOPSIS...The remnants of Tropical Storm Bonnie will slowly
meander northeast along the Carolina coast to a position near Cape
Hatteras by Thursday. A cold front will approach from the west
late in the work week as the remnants of Bonnie finally move
.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...
-- Changed Discussion --As of 315 PM Monday...
Latest surface analysis shows the remnants of Bonnie centered
just west of Myrtle Beach with an inverted surface trough extending
northeast of the center across the NC Coastal Plain. The surface
boundary was located near or just a little west of Interstate
95 with an east to southerly flow and dew points in the lower 70s
east of the trough and a northeast flow with dew points in the mid
to upper 60s west of the boundary. The visible satellite today shows
a transition from a more stable cloud pattern this morning to a
largely convective depiction as 18z MLCAPE values range from 500-
1000 J/KG across central NC.
Regional radar shows widespread showers and thunderstorms
along the NC coast associated with a plume of deep moisture
while more scattered showers along with a few thunderstorms
were slowly moving across the Coastal Plain, Sandhills and
eastern Piedmont. This convection is largely diurnally forced
with an enhanced western broken line or edge associated with 925-
850 hPa convergence and perhaps some weak upglide into the cool side
the surface boundary. Convection allowing models handle this trend
reasonably well although they have underdone the convective coverage
in the east. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms will continue to lift northwest and north into
central NC during the remainder of the afternoon and evening. The
greatest convective coverage will be located near and east of U.S. 1
with precipitation chances and amounts significantly diminishing to
the west across the western Piedmont where the low level flow is more
divergent. Convection today should be efficient rain producers again
which combined with slow storm motion will lead to
quick accumulations of rain and a localized flooding concern,
especially in locations which had significant rain yesterday.
The convection should diminish in coverage and intensity during the
course of the evening with the loss of heating. Only isolated
showers are expected overnight, again mainly from U.S. east. Areas
of fog are likely to redevelop tonight with lows in the mid to upper
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.SHORT TERM /Tuesday through Tuesday night/...
As of 310 AM Monday...
The mid level shear axis will weaken further Tue and continue an
eastward drift into eastern NC/SE VA, as the center of TD Bonnie
drifts NE over the southeast coast of NC. With the shift of both the
mid level shear axis and the inverted surface trough eastward into
coastal sections, our rain chances Tue should be a bit lower than
today with the best coverage shifting into our far eastern sections
and at the coast. PW will remain anomalously high, above 1.5" mainly
east of Highway 1, so despite the waning dynamic forcing for ascent,
it won`t take much to generate scattered showers and perhaps a storm
or two especially over the eastern CWA. Will retain cloudy to mostly
cloudy skies east, although the western CWA could see some sunshine
if the weak mid level low center shifts into eastern NC/SE VA early
enough. Highs in the low-mid 80s, coolest east where clouds should
be thickest with greater shower coverage. Lows mostly in the mid 60s.
.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Sunday/...
As of 305 AM Monday...
Wednesday and Thursday: Tropical Depression Bonnie will continue to
churn off the North Carolina coast on Wednesday somewhere between
Wilmington and Cape Lookout. With no steering flow in place the
forecast remains status quo with the best chances for precipitation
in the east but models also hinting at precipitation forming as the
result of orographic uplift as northeasterly flow approaches the
Appalachians. Therefore will carry chance of showers and
thunderstorms everywhere. Hot and humid with highs in the upper to
middle 80s and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. Lows Wednesday
night in the mid 60s.
Thursday will see the depression move a bit further northeast and
thus central NC may see a bit of a lull in precipitation before the
next system approaches from the west. Will carry low chance pops in
the forecast but it is possible that precipitation isn`t realized
until later in the day as moisture transport ahead of the front
increases. By evening expect thunderstorms to become more numerous
in the Triad and points west. These will be driven mostly by diurnal
heating as any dynamics associated with the fronts parent low will
reside well to the north. Highs still in the mid 80s with lows in
the mid to upper 60s.
Friday through Sunday: Low pressure moving through the Northern
Great Lakes and into Ontario and Quebec will move a frontal zone
over the east coast and leave it there as it detaches and heads
northeast. Back to the southwest an upper level low developing over
Texas will help to initiate the development of a broad upper trough
that will drape itself over the eastern US for several days. At the
surface a couple of waves, most notably on Saturday afternoon, will
move along the front and supply extra forcing for showers and
thunderstorms over central NC. Expect best chances in the afternoon
each day. Temperatures will cool off some during this time starting
in the mid to upper 80s on Friday afternoon down to the lower 80s by
Sunday afternoon. Lows each night in the mid to upper 60s.
.AVIATION /18Z Monday through Friday/...
As of 215 PM Monday...
Periods of adverse aviation conditions are expected across central
NC this afternoon and especially tonight.
The air mass across NC this afternoon is increasingly moist and
unstable from west to east as a plume of deep moisture extends
into eastern NC. Widespread LIFR and IFR conditions early this
morning in stratus and fog have improved to a mix of VFR and MVFR
ceilings. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms
will become more numerous this afternoon and lift northwest and north
in the circulation associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm
Bonnie. The greatest convective coverage along with a possible
thunderstorm is expected during the mid to late afternoon near and
especially east of U.S. 1 at the KFAY/KRWI/KRDU terminals where a
period of MVFR to IFR vsbys and cigs are possible. The coverage and
intensity of the shower and thunderstorms will slowly decrease during
the evening with precip chances low enough overnight to exclude a
mention in the TAF. Expect low stratus and fog to develop again
overnight, mainly after midnight with the greatest confidence of IFR
to possibly LIFR cigs and vsbys across the eastern Piedmont and
Sandhills including KRWI/KRDU/KFAY with slightly better conditions in
the Triad at KINT/KGSO.
Looking beyond 18Z Tuesday: Improving sky conditions are expected on
Tuesday as stratus lifts during the day with additional showers and
thunderstorms developing during the afternoon and early evening
Tuesday. Another period of sub-VFR conditions in fog/stratus expected
Tuesday night. A somewhat unsettled period of weather is expected for
Wednesday through Friday with a slight decrease in convective
coverage on Wednesday into early Thursday before increasing again as
a cold front approaches late Thursday into Friday. -blaes