Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 151424 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1020 AM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure across the region will bring dry weather today. A cold front will cross the area late tonight and Monday, bringing a chance of rain. This front will usher in much cooler air for Tuesday into Wednesday, with dry weather. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 10 AM Sunday... Stacked ridging across the area this morning will shift east and offshore in advance of a pair of shortwave troughs that will drive a cold front southeast into the area overnight. HRRR soundings indicate slow/gradual improvement in the widespread layer of dense ground fog that`s engulfing much of the NC Piedmont, with expectations that we will begin to see some significant improvements in visibility restrictions after 11 am with fog lifting and dissipating allowing for partly to mostly sunny skies for the afternoon. Afternoon sunshine combined with low-level SWLY flow ahead of the approaching front will help to bolster temperatures back into the lower to mid 80s. Surface cold front and accompanying broken band of showers will rapidly spill east across the NC mountains between 06z to 12z and progged to bisect central NC by daybreak, likely making for a "messy" Monday morning rush hour commute for the Triad and parts of the Triangle. Environment east of the mountains will greatly lack in instability, which will limit rainfall amounts of generally 0.25" or less. Lows overnight will be governed by the timing of the cold front into the area, with the bisecting front resulting in a larger spread in overnight lows than normal. Lows ranging from mid 50s NW to mid 60s SE. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/... As of 130 AM Sunday... Long-awaited cold front will be moving swiftly across central NC early Monday, providing us our only chance of showers through next weekend. Strong low level convergence associated with this front, sadly, will not realize anywhere near its full potential for producing much-needed widespread and significant rain, as passage will be too quick and early in the day to tap instability needed for deeper convection. There will be line of perhaps vigorous showers reaching the Triad around daybreak, with some stronger showers in the Triangle/Fayetteville/I95 corridor during the early afternoon, but the timing window for rain at any location will be limited - probably no more than 2-3 hours as the front races southeast. As such, amounts will be on the order of 1/4 inch...with some luckier folk receiving 1/2 inch. Clearing will quickly follow the front, but the temperature rises will be delayed and hampered by cold air advection which will accompany the clearing. Highs will top out in the mid to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 400 AM Sunday... High pressure will settle in Monday night into Tuesday, bringing drier and much cooler temperatures to the region. The high will linger over the region through the end of the week leading to a gradual warming trend as the airmass modifies under strong insolation. The coolest time period will be Monday night through Tuesday night with lows in the 40s and highs mainly in the mid 60s. Readings will warm a couple of degrees each day thereafter, reaching the upper 70s by Saturday. && .AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1020 AM Sunday... Expect slow/gradual improvement of fog/stratus between 15z and 16z Sunday, with VFR conditions expected beyond 17z, with a breeze from the SW at 7-12 kts. Looking beyond 00z Mon, VFR conditions will hold through the evening, but MVFR cigs and patchy rain will move in NW to SE between 05z and 08z Monday. INT/GSO will trend back to VFR as dry air moves in behind the front shortly after 12z Mon, while RDU/RWI/FAY won`t improve to VFR until after 16z Mon. VFR conditions are likely late Mon through Thu as dry and cool high pressure builds in from the W and NW. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NCZ007- 008-021>025-038>041-073>077-083>086-088. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JF NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...JF/RE LONG TERM...NRR AVIATION...JF/HARTFIELD

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