Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KRAH 210613 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 213 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
.A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL CROSS OUR REGION THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 10 PM MONDAY... S/W ENERGY MOVING THROUGH AN AMPLIFYING L/W TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. IS HELPING TO PRODUCE A SMALL BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT THIS EVENING... ALONG WITH INCREASING MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. THUS... HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT FOR THIE EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING (MOST SITES ONLY WITH TRACE AMOUNTS THOUGH... THUS... KEEPING POPS LOW THOUGH). THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH TO THE EAST OF CENTRAL NC BY AROUND DAYBREAK... YIELDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY THEN. GIVEN THE ADDED CLOUD COVER FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT... AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE TROUGH MOVING THE REGION... WE SHOULD SEE LOW TEMPS A BIT WARMER TONIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S... WITH PERHAPS SOME LOWS AROUND 50 ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 310 PM MONDAY... A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE SE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. THIS FEATURE WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WLY FLOW PROCEEDING THE FRONT WILL LIMIT MOISTURE ADVECTION. IN FACT MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO BE CONFINED TO A 5K FT LAYER BETWEEN 850-700MB. WHILE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR SPRINKLES POSSIBLE WITH THE FROPA...MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT SEE ANY RAIN. WEST-SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE LOW AND MID 70S. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL INITIALLY BE OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF NW LOW LEVEL WIND THOUGH AS SFC WINDS VEER TO A NLY DIRECTION BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR WILL BE REALIZED. MIN TEMPS MID 40S NW TO THE UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 SE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 225 PM MONDAY... THE LOW JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST...LINGERING OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFF THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEK...RESULTING IN NW FLOW OVER THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DESPITE THE STRONG FORCING ALOFT AND THE LOW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO CENTRAL NC...THE ABUNDANT DRY AIR OVER THE AREA SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TRIANGLE...RESULTING IN THE BEST CHANCES FOR CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A SPRINKLE OR TWO...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO ONE ANOTHER BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. AS THE MAIN LOW LIFTS NORTH AWAY FROM THE AREA...A SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO DIVE SSE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT TRAVERSES THE REGION GIVEN THE CONTINUED LACK OF ANY DEEP MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT NW FLOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 210 AM TUESDAY... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL CLOUD BAND AND VIRGA - OR ISOLATED SPRINKLES AT THE SURFACE - WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH 10Z. OTHERWISE...A LIGHT SSW SURFACE WIND WILL INCREASE INTO THE 5-10 KT FROM THE WSW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 20Z-01Z THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO VEER TO WNW AND INCREASE INTO THE 8-14 KT RANGE WITH A FEW GUSTS INTO THE MID-UPPER TEENS KTS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS WITH BASES BETWEEN 4500-7000 FT AND TOPS BETWEEN 9-13 THOUSAND FT - THE DEEPEST OF WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE - WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE PASSING FRONT...WITH THE RELATIVE GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE AND CHANCE OF A SHOWER AT KRDU AND KRWI. A STEADY WNW TO NW SURFACE WIND...WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST INTO THE MID-UPPER TEENS KTS...WILL CONTINUE AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING. OUTLOOK: THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT AND WED WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF LOW VFR CEILINGS (BETWEEN 3500-5000 FT) AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY FROM KRDU AND KRWI NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COAST WILL PRODUCE NW SURFACE WINDS IN THE LOW-MID TEENS KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS WED...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE ON THU.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...BSD SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...KCP AVIATION...MWS

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.