Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KRAH 211849 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 250 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND WILL TEMPORARY STALL ALONG THE COAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH MID-WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 250 PM SUNDAY... VIGOROUS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST US AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT...PROPELLING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN MONDAY 06 TO 15Z. LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND POOR DIURNAL TIMING WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES TO AN ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. LOWS OVERNIGHT RANGING FROM AROUND 60 NW TO MID/UPPER 60S SE. THE COLD FRONT AND ATTENDANT NARROW AXIS OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL TEMPORARY STALL ALONG THE COAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AS A POTENT VORTMAX EMBEDDED IN THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO CLOSE AND CUT-OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST US. THIS WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF STRONG CAA UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL ALLOW HIGHS MONDAY TO STILL CLIMB INTO THE MID- UPPER 70S NW TO LOWER 80S SE. MUCH COOLER MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST...LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S N/NW TO LOWER/MID 50S SE TUE MORNING. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 250 PM SUNDAY... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST US BY TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO CENTRAL NC...RESULTING IN MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. CONTINUED CAA WILL RESULT IN HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S (WITH SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE NORMAL COOLER LOCALES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA). && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 250 PM SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW NORMAL TOWARDS THE MIDDLE/END OF THE WEEK AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS. ONE THING IN WHICH THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL INCREASE AND BEGIN TO GRADUALLY TAKE ON MORE OF AN EAST OF NORTHERLY COMPONENT BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY (AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST) ALLOWING SOME MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA. IN ADDITION...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A WEAKNESS ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST (ALTHOUGH TO VARYING DEGREES AMONG THE MODELS). THIS WOULD INCREASE CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES (ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NC). THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF SHOWS A CLOSED LOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHICH IN TURN RESULTS IN A STRONGER INVERTED TROUGH AND THEREFORE MORE ENHANCED PRECIP/CLOUD COVER. THE GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE AREA AND THEREFORE IS WEAKER WITH THE COASTAL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER/PRECIP (ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT COMPLETELY DRY). FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK GIVEN THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF. REGARDLESS...CLOUDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST...WITH HIGHS STAYING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S. SOME DRYING MAY COMMENCE BY THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD EAST. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL UNDERGO SOME MODERATION...AND ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 150 PM SUNDAY... 24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS A MOISTURE DEPRIVED COLD FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 06Z-15Z MONDAY. ISOLD SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA...THOUGH PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN TO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MID-WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN MAY RETURN BY LATE WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE WAVE ALONG THE GULF/SOUTHEAST COAST. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CBL NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...KRD LONG TERM...KRD AVIATION...CBL

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.