Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 210841 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 340 AM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will drift offshore late tonight and Tuesday. A weak area of low pressure will develop off the Florida coast on Tuesday, and then track quickly northeastward along the Southeast coast Tuesday night. A cold front will move through the area on Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 340 AM Tuesday... Surface high over the area this morning will shift offshore, in advance of a northern stream trough and attendant cold front progressing SE into the Ohio and Tn Valley. Meanwhile, the southern stream shortwave trough over the central GOM this morning will lift northeast across the Florida peninsula today and then up along the SE Coast late this evening and tonight. Associated weak spin-up of a low pressure area will move NE up the SE coast overnight, remaining well offshore. Brief surge of low-level moisture transport in advance of this southern stream wave, coupled with strengthening ascent in the jet entrance region, will yield yet another quick hitting and light precip event across central NC this evening and tonight. Bulk of measurable precip is expected to remain along and east of US 1, where low-level moisture flux will be strongest, with QPF amounts ranging from a trace across the western Piedmont to a tenth of an inch across the Coastal Plain counties. Although modulated by a thickening cloud cover, the southerly return flow will support warmer temperatures than yesterday with afternoon highs ranging from mid/upper 50s across the NW Piedmont to lower/mid 60s SE. Much warmer overnight lows in the lower 40s NW to near 50 SE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 234 PM Monday... Will be issued shortly.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 210 PM Monday... A surface cold front with limited moisture will be making its way through the region Wednesday and Wednesday night. High pressure and its associated cold airmass to the north will expand into North Carolina on Thursday. A brief warmup will occur Friday into Saturday ahead of the next cold front that will pass through Saturday night. Very amplified trough in the eastern US Sunday and Monday will bring a much colder airmass into North Carolina with max temps Monday only in the 40s. Precipitation during this time frame will be limited to spotty light rain with each frontal passage. Waves of low pressure off the southeast US coastline will keep more substantial rain to the east and south of the region. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 135 AM Tuesday... Sfc high pressure over the area this morning will drift eastward and offshore throughout the day. Low-level dry air associated with this high will support a continuation of VFR conditions through at least 18z, with the resultant SELY return flow leading to gradual moistening and broken/overcast ceilings between 3 to 5kt during the mid to late afternoon. Strengthening low-level moisture advection in advance of a sfc low that will move northeast off the SE Coast overnight, is expected to lead to deteriorating aviation conditions this evening and overnight, especially at the eastern terminals(KRWI and KFAY). Model guidance continues to exhibit higher than average spread with this coastal system, and thus forecaster confidence is lower than normal. Expect ceilings to lower to IFR to MVFR with patches of light rain/drizzle from RDU eastward. It`s possible that KINT and KGSO could also see a period of sub-VFR ceilings during the late afternoon/early evening, however confidence is too low to include in TAFS at this time. A cold front will cross central NC Wednesday. Cold dry air advection will quickly scour out any sub-VFR ceilings Wednesday morning. VFR parameters should prevail across central NC Wednesday afternoon through Saturday. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CBL NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...np LONG TERM...Franklin AVIATION...CBL

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