Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 060108 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 907 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR THE VA AND NC BORDER TODAY...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL DRIFT INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD WITH THE MIGRATION OF THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES ON MON. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 255 PM SUNDAY... EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NC THROUGH 6 PM AS ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME SLIGHT TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES AROUND 3000 J/KG OVER SECTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING ALONG A STALLED SFC BOUNDARY DRAPED WEST-TO-EAST NEAR THE VA BORDER. IN ADDITION...NOTED SOME SPEED CONVERGENCE OVER OUR SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AS A 925-850MB TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SW. THIS TROUGH A LIKELY REFLECTION OF A SHEAR AXIS LIFTING SLOWLY N-NE WITH A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS EXITING MID TN INTO EASTERN KY AT MID AFTERNOON. STARTING TO SEE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 9 DEG C/KM OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND D-CAPE VALUES APPROACHING A 1K J/KG IN VICINITY OR EAST OF I-95. THUS...THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS 35-45KTS WITH ISOLATED GUSTS AROUND 50KTS POSSIBLE. CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE/DIMINISH AFTER 9 PM THOUGH COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORM PERSIST PAST MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH SECTIONS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. PARTIAL CLEARING ONCE THE CONVECTION DISSIPATES WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW A LOW STRATUS LAYER TO DEVELOP IN AREAS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. THUS EARLY MONDAY MAY START OUT BROKEN-OVERCAST SKIES FOR MOST FOLKS. MIN TEMPS 68-73. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 325 PM SUNDAY... A 850-700MB TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. WITH HEATING OF THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE...SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NC THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE ENHANCED OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN IN VICINITY OF THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR RELATIVELY WEAK AND AVAILABLE INSTABILITY ALSO WEAK SO SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPS DEPENDENT UPON EXTENT/DURATION OF LOW CLOUDS IN THE MORNING...AND WHEN/EXTENT OF CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON. FAVOR MAX TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN MOS CONSENSUS (UPPER 80S FAR NORTH- NW TO NEAR 90-LOWER 90S SOUTH). MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WILL AGAIN DIMINISH/DISSIPATE WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUNSET. WITH BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LIFTING AWAY FROM OUR REGION...DO NOT EXPECT ANY ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. MIN TEMPS 67-73. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY... THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND AMPLIFY OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC FEATURES...INCLUDING FRONTS...REMAINING TO OUR NORTH. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 70S. THE LATEST GFS AND THE 00Z EURO GUIDANCE BOTH SUGGEST TEMPS MAY TRY TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S LATER IN THE WEEK...AND THIS MAKE SENSE GIVEN THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST DURING THAT TIME. AS SUCH...WILL LIKELY NEED TO RAMP UP ADVERTISING HEAT IMPACTS AND SAFETY ONCE AGAIN AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEK. AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY- DIURNAL SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE TUE/WED BEFORE THE RIDGE BECOMES WELL-ESTABLISHED...AND LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT WEST AND WEAKEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST. OVERALL...PRECIP CHANCES AT OR BELOW CLIMO DURING THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 900 PM SUNDAY... 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: THUNDER MOVING THROUGH KRDU IS ON A WEAKENING TREND AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT HALF HOUR OR SO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY STILL AFFECT THE TRIAD SITES LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS GENERALLY VARIABLE AT 5- 10 KTS. MAY SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES/CEILINGS IN RAIN COOLED AREAS OVERNIGHT BUT OTHERWISE NOT EXPECTING TOO MANY RESTRICTIONS TO AVIATION CONDITIONS. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PREVAIL AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. LONG TERM: CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE IN THE COMING DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE PATTERN A LITTLE MORE. STILL LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
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&& ..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...26 NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...RAH AVIATION..ELLIS

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