Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 190640 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 240 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A deep ridge of high pressure will extend across the region through Thursday. A surface cold front and upper level low pressure trough will approach from the west Thursday night, then cross across the area Friday through Friday night. Cool high pressure will build in from the west over the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1025 PM Tuesday... Surface high pressure will ridge westward into South Carolina, while a weak piedmont trough sets up over Central NC overnight. Skies should remain mostly clear and winds will be southerly, possibly staying up around 3-5 kts through tonight. As a result, good radiational cooling will yield lows around 60 degrees. Low dewpoint depressions could result in some fog/low stratus in the pre-dawn hours, however coverage will be patchy and confidence is not terribly high. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 140 PM Tuesday... Tomorrow will likely be the warmest day of the week as high pressure continues to dominate the surface pattern with sunny skies. Thicknesses inch up a bit to suggest high temperatures topping out in the mid 80s. This will flirt with the record at GSO (86 degrees). Again tomorrow night...light southerly flow with little cloud cover. Low temperatures in the low 60s. && .LONG TERM /Friday through Tuesday/...
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As of 240 AM Wednesday... Fri-Fri night: Models agree on the incoming cold front being aligned along the mountains early Fri, although they differ a bit in speed, with the NAM/ECMWF about 3-6 hours slower than the GFS. Will lean toward the slower solution based on the strength of the deep longwave trough driving frontal movement. Moisture along and ahead of this front remains rather shallow and fleeting, given the weakening but lingering deep ridging and weak flow ahead of the front (between it and the offshore-tracking potential tropical or subtropical low) providing no good opportunity for moisture transport into the region. Will maintain good chance pops focused on the NW forecast area including the Triad, where large scale ascent in the form of DPVA and upper divergence will be greatest, trending to small chances across the southern and SE CWA. QPF is expected to be quite low, less than a tenth of an inch in most places. Any showers are likely to be exiting the forecast area prior to sundown, with rapid clearing taking place thereafter. The front should swing through the western forecast area during the morning and midday hours, with thicknesses plunging there and limited insolation only allowing highs to reach the mid 60s, while in the east with at least a little sunshine and delayed front, temps should get up into the lower to mid 70s. Winds pick up considerably from the NW just behind the front, and momentum transport noted on forecast soundings suggests that gusts over 20 mph are likely in the afternoon. Lows Fri night in the 45-50 range with diminishing winds. Sat-Tue: Still looks fair, dry, and cool, but with moderating temps back to near normal by Mon, as the mid level trough axis kicks to our NE with rising heights aloft, and modifying high pressure building into the Mid-South/Gulf states and Southeast. We return to above normal thicknesses Sun night through Mon night as we get into a relative warm sector with the surface high sitting over the central Gulf Coast. Then, energy diving into a mean polar low over southern Quebec will help draw a dry backdoor front into the region, and both the ECMWF and GFS indicate cooler high pressure nosing in from the north on Tue. After cool highs Sat in the lower to mid 60s, warming to the upper 60s Sun and lower 70s Mon, expect highs to slip back into the upper 60s for Tue. -GIH
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&& .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 200 AM Wednesday... 24 Hour TAF period: VFR conditions for now mostly everywhere across the area but some concerns about fog will begin to creep in as the morning progresses. Dewpoint depressions support possible fog, with eastern areas more likely to see some development. Otherwise another repeat of previous days with weak southwesterly flow and little to no cloud cover. Long term: VFR conditions expected until Friday when a front approaches from the west and could provide some precipitation and adverse aviation conditions. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...KC SHORT TERM...mlm LONG TERM...Hartfield AVIATION...Ellis is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.