Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 221619 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1220 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING THEN CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1130 AM TUESDAY... A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. DCVA AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING...WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION AND MARGINAL DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION WILL RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS BETWEEN 19-22Z IN THE TRIAD AND 21-02Z IN THE TRIANGLE AND COASTAL PLAIN...SIMILAR TO WHAT HIGH-RES CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS SUCH AS THE HRW-NMM INDICATE. THUNDER APPEARS UNLIKELY GIVEN MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...THOUGH WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST OF HWY 1 IF DESTABILIZATION...DCVA AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ARE FAVORABLY JUXTAPOSED. THE POSTFRONTAL AIRMASS THAT FOLLOWS THE COLD FRONT IS STABLE AND BRINGING IN LOW DEW POINTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WHICH WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT THE AREA AND SUPPRESS ANY FURTHER PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE DRY AIR IS MIXED FROM ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. ANY LINGERING CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT SOON AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. -SSR/VINCENT && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 1220 PM TUESDAY... ...SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR POTENTIAL WEATHER HAZARDS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... RATHER WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT. STRONG COOL AND DRY ADVECTION WILL BE DRIVEN BY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THIS DRYING PROCESS ALONG WITH THE WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED MAY LEAD TO A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 MPH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH BECOMES POSITIONED OVERHEAD LATE. A RATHER QUICK RETURN SW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY (BUT WITH MUCH LESS VELOCITY 8-12 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON). THIS INFORMATION WILL BE COLLABORATED WITH THE FORESTRY OFFICIALS. OTHERWISE... TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW THE 30 YEAR NORMALS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SENSIBLE WEATHER... SUNNY AND WINDY WEDNESDAY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S (SE). CLEAR AND CHILLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD THURSDAY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S NE TO MID 50S.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY... MODELS HINT AT A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT FRIDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DCVA MOVE OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONTAL ZONE. BY THE TIME THE FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL NC FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IT WILL BE RATHER WEAK AND THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE BETTER AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WTH DEWOINTS POTENTIALLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S...AND SO SOME DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MARGINALLY STRONG...UP TO 35KT...AND WHILE A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...THE BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY NOT LINE UP FOR MUCH SEVERE THREAT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT MID TO UPPER 50S.THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING AND THEN ESSENTIALLY WASH OUT AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REDEVELOPS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A STRONGER SECONDARY FRONTAL ZONE MOVES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS SHOW CENTRAL NC REMAINING MOSTLY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE FRONT HOLDING JUST TO OUR NORTH. THERE ARE RATHER LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING PRECIP DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ROTATE ACROSS THE GRAT LAKES REGION. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTH/CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY...WHICH SHOULD EVENTUALLY SPREAD BETTER PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS OUR REGION BY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 1145 AM TUESDAY... VFR CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ASSOC/W ISOLD TO SCT SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A TEMPO GROUP WILL BE INCLUDED TO ACCOUNT FOR SUCH A POTENTIAL. LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT. SUB-VFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ASSOC/W SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW THU NIGHT...IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY... FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS AGAIN ON SAT. -VINCENT && .FIRE WEATHER /WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...
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AS OF 1200 PM TUESDAY... NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 20 MPH WILL GUST TO 30 BEHIND A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FINE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL DRY OUT. WE MAY NEED AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT OR A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN LATER FORECASTS AFTER COLLABORATION WITH THE FORESTRY OFFICIALS. .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...BADGETT NEAR TERM...VINCENT SHORT TERM...BADGETT LONG TERM... SMITH AVIATION...HARTFIELD FIRE WEATHER...BADGETT

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