Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KRAH 280554 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 154 AM EDT Sun May 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Several upper level disturbances will combine with a surface trough to bring a chance of thunderstorms through Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 154 AM EDT Sunday... The first line of thunderstorms has been weakening as it pushed through the Triad region. This line produced brief heavy rain and wind gusts to 35 mph, along with frequent lightning. There is a residual MCV associated with the weakening convection now over the north-central Piedmont around Burlington. This feature may continue to produce a large area of mostly stratiform rain with some convective elements and some CG lightning as it moves east in the next few hours. Upstream, a new Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for much of southwestern NC from AVL to HKY and CLT. This Watch is just west of our region. A severe line of thunderstorms associated with an MCS located over NE Tennessee was moving ESE over the Mountains. We will have to see how this evolves as it crosses the Mountains and comes off the Blue Ridge into the western Piedmont in the next hour or so. The area of concern over the western Piedmont has not been convectively overturned along and south of the outflow boundary - now located from near Statesville to near Asheboro. However, increasing CINH may help keep the chance of damaging wind or large hail in check as the storms move into our region in the next few hours. Otherwise, mostly cloudy and warm overnight with a chance of showers and thunderstorms, highest chance in the areas from Lexington to Albemarle and Southern Pines south and west to Charlotte in the next few hours. Lows generally 65-70. Today and Tonight... the chance of thunderstorms today will depend on many factors including the current convection and the placement of outflows to begin the day. We should see plenty of clearing and resultant strong heating today allowing for a good recovery. Surface dew points in the mid to upper 60s combined with highs of 85-90 should lead to MLCapes in the 1500 to 2000 J/KG mid to late afternoon. At least scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon and linger into the evening. Earlier SPC outlook highlighted the northern half of NC in a slight risk. This will most likely be adjusted southward a bit given the latest data coming in. Lows tonight will continue warmer than average, in the mid to upper 60s with a lingering slight chance overnight given the approaching front from the NW.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& ..SHORT TERM /Monday and Monday Night/... As of 154 AM EDT Sunday... Monday and Monday night: A marginal to slight risk of severe storms expected again Monday afternoon and evening, mainly in the eastern counties. A cold front is forecast to push into the region Monday and Monday evening. Timing of the front is in question, but the slower models may be best. However, any convective outflows may be the main thing to watch for additional strong to locally severe storms Monday afternoon and evening. Both the GFS and EC are in reasonable agreement with the placement of the forecast highest instability and suggest that MLCAPE values could again reach the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range, mainly over the Coastal Plain, where heating may be best. Highs should reach the mid to upper 80s with dew points in the upper 60s. This area should also be in the region of strongest shear with 35-40kt of WSW flow expected (0-6 km). The main threats should be large hail and damaging wind gusts. && .LONG TERM /Tuesday through Saturday/... As of 230 PM EDT Saturday... Closed low will move slowly east across SE Canada and NE U.S. through the period. Central NC will find itself near the base of the associated upper trough and accompanying strong belt of westerlies extending south into the region. While there is generally good agreement on the synoptic scale pattern, sensible weather next week will be greatly influenced by the many shortwave disturbances that are forecast to track through the region within the low amplitude west-southwesterly flow aloft between the aforementioned closed low to the north and the subtropical ridge to our south. Additionally, the exact evolution of these disturbances timing/track/magnitude) will likely play a role in the location of a nearby sfc boundary that`s forecast to stall across the SE states. Thus, expect pops near to above climo each day, dependent on difficult to time disturbances, with convection likely to exhibit a diurnal trend. Expect seasonable temperatures with highs ranging from lower 80s north to mid/upper 80s south. Lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION /06Z Sunday through Wednesday/... As of 1245 AM EDT Sunday... A chance of showers/thunderstorms will continue through 09z-12z as the new line of storms emerges off the Blue Ridge shortly. Otherwise, generally VFR conditions expected tonight and Sunday morning. There should be additional storms again Sunday afternoon and night, with any TAF site having a 50/50 chance of a period of storms. All told, outside of convection, VFR conditions are expected through the 24 hour TAF period, although there could be patches of MVFR fog in the predawn at locations which do receive rain. Outlook: There be a chance of mainly late day storms Monday through Wednesday as a cold front slowly approaches from the west and potentially stalls over the area. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...Badgett SHORT TERM...Badgett LONG TERM...CBL AVIATION...Badgett/MLM is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.