Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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768 FXUS62 KRAH 301644 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1243 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Tropical Depression 8 will approach the NC Outer Banks from the ESE tonight, then track NE into the Atlantic on Wednesday. A cold front will approach the region from the NW Wednesday night into Thursday, then track southeast through central North Carolina Thursday evening into Thursday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1245 PM Tuesday... Moisture has increased over central NC today in assoc/w an E/NE onshore flow expanding westward across the state, with PWAT values rising to near ~1.50". The shear axis which extended N/NNW into the area from a stalled upper level low offshore the GA/FL coast yesterday has shifted into upstate SC and northern GA. As a result, forcing will largely be absent this afternoon through tonight. In fact, subsidence is likely to be present over portions of central/ eastern NC on the western periphery of TD #8 as it tracks /reforms/ closer to the NC OBX. With the above in mind, will indicate a dry forecast over central NC through tonight, with the best chance for precip along the immediate Carolina/Southeast coast. Expect partly cloudy skies with highs in the upper 80s to near 90F. Lows Wed morning in the upper 60s to lower 70s. -Vincent && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 1245 PM Tuesday... As Tropical Depression 8 tracks NE away from the Carolina coast, a baroclinic low attendant a weakening upper level low just offshore the Southeast coast and strengthening cyclonic flow aloft over the Mid-Atlantic is expected to track NE along/just offshore the Carolina coast Wed/Wed night. By 12Z Thu, the low is progged to be centered just south of Cape Lookout. Although the best potential for precipitation attendant the aforementioned low will remain in immediate vicinity of the Carolina coast, 12Z model guidance suggests isolated or scattered convection (primarily showers) may develop as far inland as the Coastal Plain. Additionally, diurnal convection is expected to develop in the higher terrain of the NC mountains in assoc/w differential heating and diffluent flow aloft Wed aft/eve, and some of this activity could drift into portions of the NW piedmont before dissipating Wed evening. With the above in mind, will continue to indicate a slight chance of showers/storms during the aft/eve hours in southeast portions of the Coastal Plain and in the Northwest Piedmont. Expect highs on Wed in the upper 80s to near 90F, lows Wed night in the lower 70s. -Vincent && .LONG TERM /Thursday through Monday/... As of 245 AM Tuesday... Thu/Thu night: Precip concerns for NC Thu/Thu night include a low pressure area projected by some models to be just off the southern NC coast early Fri, as well as the cold front approaching from the NW, driven by a digging northern stream trough swinging through the St. Lawrence valley and Northeast states. The former feature, if it occurs, is likely to impact only our far SE sections (where PW will be higher) early in the day, while the latter should bring a broken band of showers and a few storms across the entire CWA later in the day and into the evening, a result of marginal instability and deep layer shear, upper divergence in the right entrance region of the jet extending from northern VA to the Canadian maritimes, and low level mass convergence and moisture pooling ahead of the front. But coverage should be limited somewhat by the preceding low level downslope component to the low level flow. Will keep a pop in the far SE early, then retain a trend up to good chance pops Thu afternoon, trending down in the late evening and overnight from NW to SE. Highs 87-92 on the last day of above-normal temps prior to frontal passage. Lows 65-70. Fri-Mon: The circulation around what is now TD9 may pull a few tropical showers into our far SE Fri as it tracks toward the NE off the SC/NC coast, along with enhanced surface winds and gusts from the northeast. But otherwise our weather heading into the weekend will be largely driven by the cool high pressure building in from the north, pulling in below-normal thicknesses and a markedly drier air mass that will last into Mon, albeit with some modification as the mean weak trough eases eastward just off the East Coast as heights build in the west due to the building mid level ridge through the Miss Valley and Ohio Valley. Weather may remain a bit unsettled over the eastern CWA near the baggy upper trough axis, but otherwise will have a dry forecast. Highs mostly in the lower-mid 80s and lows in the lower-mid 60s. -GIH && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1245 PM Tuesday... 24-hr TAF Period: With high pressure situated north across the Mid- Atlantic and Tropical Depression 8 offshore the Carolina coast, a relatively stable onshore (ENE) low-level flow will persist through the TAF period. VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all terminals this afternoon into tonight. A small potential for sub-VFR ceilings assoc/w stratus will be possible around sunrise Wed morning, however, since stratus failed to develop this morning, confidence is too low to warrant mention at this time. Looking ahead: Periodic convection and early morning stratus/ ceilings will be possible at all terminals Wed/Thu, in advance of a cold front approaching from the NW. VFR conditions are expected in the wake of the front Friday into the weekend. -Vincent && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Vincent NEAR TERM...Vincent SHORT TERM...Vincent LONG TERM...Hartfield AVIATION...Vincent

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