Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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695 FXUS62 KRAH 210634 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 234 AM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will bring dry and seasonably hot weather to the region for the start of the work week. A strong cold front will bring increasing rain chances for the middle of the week, then move east and off the coast by Friday, with cooler drier weather in its wake. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 230 AM Monday... Anchored by a 594DM upper-level anticyclone, central NC will sit under the influence of deep layer ridging on Monday, which is a good thing in terms of limited cloud cover across central NC as the solar eclipse viewing party commences this afternoon. The lack of forcing along with warm dry aloft will continue to limit rain chances, with the better chances on our eastern and western flanks, in vicinity of the sea breeze near the coast and along the terrain induced differential heating over the mtns/fthls. Highs in the lower 90s. Lows 70 to 75. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 AM Monday... Heights aloft fall slightly on Tuesday with the approach of the northern stream trough and attendant cold front into the Ohio and Tn Valleys late Tuesday/Tuesday night. While we do see the development of pre-frontal sfc trough in the lee of the mountains Tuesday afternoon, central NC remains in a void of appreciable synoptic scale lift. And as such, convective rain chances should remain rather low and generally confined across the far SE zones in the vicinity of the sea breeze and across the western part of the state along the pre-frontal trough. One minor caveat that needs to be mentioned is a sheared vorticity centered that`s currently off the SE coast. If this feature can hold together as it moves westward over the SE states, where it will encounter the upper level anticyclone, DPVA from this feature could serve to support slightly higher/better rain chances across the southern zones. Will continue monitor will only slight chance pops for now. Loss of daytime heating should Tuesday evening should lead to dry conditions overnight as the cold front doesn`t`t arrive from the NW until late Wednesday afternoon. Highs in the lower 90s with lows in the lower to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 100 PM Sunday... Tue/Tue Night: High pressure will shift offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast and a cold front will progresses southeast through the Ohio valley Tue/Tue night as cyclonic flow aloft strengthens in advance of an upper level low progressing across southern Ontario. As a result, rich low-level moisture will return to the Carolinas via southerly return flow and isold convection will be possible invof a pre-frontal trough in the lee of the Appalachians Tue aft/eve. Expect above normal highs 90-94F, warmest Sandhills, with lows Tue night in the lower/mid 70s. Wed-Thu Night: The aforementioned cold front will progress slowly SE through NC Wed/Wed night. The front may stall invof the Carolina coast Wed Night/Thu as cyclonic flow aloft strengthens over the region, however, high pressure should build southeastward into central NC Thu night as troughing aloft shifts to the eastern seaboard. Expect near normal temperatures Wed/Wed night, followed by below normal temperatures Thu/Thu night. Expect above normal chances for convection in assoc/w the front Wed/Wed night. Uncertainty increases w/regard to the position of the stalled front on Thu. Above normal chances for convection should persist in far E/SE portions of the state, including portions of the SE Coastal Plain. Lingering precipitation should exit from NW-SE or W-E Thu night. Fri-Sun: At this time, expect below normal temperatures and dry conditions Fri through the upcoming weekend as high pressure builds eastward from the Great Lakes into New England and a pronounced surface ridge extends southward into the Carolinas, maintaining a cool/dry airmass over central portions of the state. -Vincent && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 127 AM Monday... Will follow persistence forecast with fog/stratus expected again at eastern terminals(KRWI and KFAY) between 06 to 12z, where higher sfc dewpoints in the mid 70s continue to reside. There is a bit more high level cloudiness than last night, which that could impede dense fog development. For now will carry IFR at KFAY and LIFR at fog-prone KRWI. Some marginal MVFR ground fog is also possible at KRDU. Any fog/stratus should lift between 12 to 14z, with generally dry VFR conditions for the afternoon and evening. Outlook: Diurnal showers and thunderstorms as well as morning fog/low stratus return for Tuesday. A cold front will move through the area Wednesday and settle near the coast on Thursday providing an opportunity for adverse conditions during this time period before returning to VFR for the end of the week and into the weekend. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...Vincent AVIATION...CBL/Ellis is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.