Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 230150 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 950 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Bermuda high pressure will extend westward from the Atlantic across the Carolinas through Friday. Low pressure will pass by to our northwest, crossing the central Appalachians Friday night into Saturday morning, before moving off the Mid Atlantic coast. This will drag a trailing cold front through our area late Saturday through Saturday night. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
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As of 950 PM EDT Thursday... Light rain continues across northern portions of the CWA in association with some weak 500 mb vorticity maxima that are moving through eastern NC at this time. With those moving off to the east a few more low amplitude disturbances are projected to ride the northern periphery of the forecast area overnight and largely stay north of the area. That being said some light rain will be possible in the northern counties with more widely scattered activity to the south. Looking back into southern GA, radar depicts a multi-cellular complex of showers and storms that will march northeastward overnight. CAM models depict that this activity could reach the Triad between 9-12z, weakening as it does so. SPC meso-analysis shows CAPE and shear fields that support this theory with a much more hostile environment for instability over the Triad. Will continue to monitor this area overnight as it moves through upstate South Carolina but not expecting more than light to moderate showers at this time. Expect some low stratus to develop overnight from the Triangle westward with IFR ceilings possible. Expect temperatures and dewpoints both in the low 70s overnight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/... As of 323 PM EDT Thursday... The plume of high >2.0" PWATS over the Carolinas briefly lifts away from the area, before a secondary surge late Friday night and Saturday as the remnants of Cindy approach from the west. There will also be a void in forcing over the region on Friday as well, with only insolation and the inland retreating seabreeze boundary acting on the continued moist/muggy low-level airmass. Will have a small chance/scattered pops across the southeast, otherwise isolated. After extensive morning stratus, highs should rebound quickly in the warm sector reaching the lower 90s SE, with mid to upper 80s NW. breezy SW winds to 20-25 MPH. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 323 PM EDT Thursday... The lower/mid tropospheric remnants of Tropical Storm Cindy are forecast to become increasingly sheared and will accelerate NEWD through the southern Mid-Atlantic States early Saturday as it gets picked by the westerlies ahead of the northern stream trough digging into the Central US. With the remnant circulation/PV anomaly associated with Cindy expected to pass north, so will the heavy rain/flooding threat, with QPF amounts having decreased significantly across the area. Instead, a concentrated area of warm moist advection, along the leading edge of a H8 50kt LLJ, will fuel a band of showers and thunderstorms into western NC, that will weaken as they progress eastward into the central and eastern Saturday morning as the better support aloft lifts off to the northeast. Convective re-development is then expected during the afternoon and evening, as the lead cold front moves into the area, before stalling near the coast Saturday night into Sunday. Scattered in the west, to possibly numerous showers and storms in the east are possible Saturday afternoon, with a few strong to severe storms possible in the east. Additionally, with the front forecast to stall out, some localized/isolated flooding is possible as storms train along the stationary boundary. A stronger disturbance aloft in the cyclonic flow across the eastern half of the country is expected to approach and move across the area early next week, along with an associated cold front. This will give us another chance for some showers and storms on Monday into Monday night, along with a push of drier and cooler air, with highs by Tuesday possibly struggling to reach 80 across the Piedmont and some low temps dropping into the mid to upper 50s by Wednesday morning. && .AVIATION /00Z Friday through Tuesday/... As of 805 PM Thursday... While patchy sprinkles will persist over the area through much of the evening, vsbys and cigs should stay VFR. But starting around 06z in the west and closer to 09z in the east, MVFR clouds, with periods of IFR clouds, are expected to overspread much of central NC, along with occasional light rain that may produce MVFR vsbys for a couple of hours. Cigs are expected to improve to VFR by 12z at INT/GSO, by 13z at RDU, and by 15z at RWI/FAY, with rain exiting the area. VFR conditions are expected to persist areawide from 15z to the end of the TAF valid period. Winds will be light (under 8 kts) from the SW much of tonight, increasing to 12-16 kts close to daybreak Fri and remaining there through Fri, with occasional gusts to 18-23 kts. Looking beyond 00z Sat (Fri evening), areas of rain and a stout gusty breeze from the SW are expected to spread in Fri evening, lasting into Sat morning, with prevailing sub-VFR conditions late Fri night through daybreak Sat. VFR conditions should resume late Sat morning lasting through Sat night, despite passage of a cold front southeastward through the area late Sat into Sat night, although FAY may see some strong storms Sat afternoon. VFR conditions will then dominate Sun through Tue under the influence of surface high pressure. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...Ellis SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...CBL/BSD AVIATION...Hartfield

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