Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 070544 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 140 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 915 PM MONDAY... ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAS SHOWN A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND SINCE 00Z. THE EXCEPTION IS A BROKEN NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED T-STORMS WHICH EXTEND FROM EAST OF THOMASVILLE TO NEAR ROXBORO. THIS BAND OF CONVECTION OCCURRING ALONG A WEAK 850-700MB TROUGH WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SUPPORT ALOFT FROM A VORT AXIS LIFTING N-NE ACROSS WESTERN NC. DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THIS FEATURE INTERACTING WITH THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND LOW LEVEL (THOUGH WEAK) INSTABILITY...SHOULD SEE ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION PERSIST WEST OF HIGHWAY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT TO SEE AREAS OF STRATUS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP THOUGH EXPECT IT TO BE RELATIVELY THIN AND BRIEF IN DURATION. MIN TEMPS 68-73. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 335 PM MONDAY... EXPECT A PERIOD OF EARLY MORNING STRATUS TO START THE DAY WITH CLOUDS LIFTING AND INTERVALS OF SUNSHINE ARRIVING TOWARD MID TO LATE MORNING. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ON TUESDAY SHOULD AGAIN BE LIMITED AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTH SOMEWHAT AND THE AIR MASS DRIES OUT WITH PW VALUES DROPPING 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON TO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ORIENTED SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT COULD HELP TO INITIATE WIDELY SCATTED CONVECTION. GIVEN WEAK FLOW AND GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL. WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THICKNESS VALUES INCREASE A BIT AS HEIGHTS RISE SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 89 TO 94 RANGE. -BLAES && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 150 PM MONDAY... GRADUAL WESTWARD REGRESSION OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL LIFT THE WESTERLIES AND PERSISTENT FRONTAL ZONE NORTH OF THE AREA IN THE MIDWEEK. THE FRONTAL ZONE MAKES A SOUTHERLY JOG ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH ENSUING NORTHWEST FLOW AND A GRADUAL UPTICK IN HEIGHTS OVER THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE RIDING WILL LIMIT CONVECTION THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES...PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER DUE TO PROXIMITY WITH THE ACTIVE WESTERLIES ZONE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 90 ACROSS THE NORTH TO 95 IN THE SOUTH AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. OVER THE WEEKEND...DEEP NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE THAT UPSTREAM MESOSCALE DISTURBANCES WANDER IN TO INITIATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. WILL THUS MAINTAIN CHANCE (30-40) POPS...SHADED TOWARDS MAX HEATING EACH DAY...ON SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER...MOSTLY IN THE MID 90S...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME UPPER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 140 AM TUESDAY... VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH A LITTLE STRONGER FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY LEAD TO SOME STRATUS BY 10-12Z. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE ISN`T REALLY INDICATING MUCH MORE THAN JUST A FEW PATCHES OF IFR STRATUS...SO THE LATEST TAF WILL REFLECT LESS IN THE WAY OF RESTRICTIONS. WHATEVER LOW CLOUDS THAT DO FORM WILL BURN OFF BY 14Z...AND SCATTERED CU IN THE 3-4K FT RANGE WILL DEVELOP FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH DRIER AIR ON CENTRAL NC...ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN...PRIMARILY IN THE VICINITY OF KFAY AND/OR KRWI AFTER 18Z. OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION. SOME AFTERNOON STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...ALONG WITH EARLY MORNING VSBY RESTRICTIONS. && ..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BLAES NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...BLAES LONG TERM...MLM AVIATION...22

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