Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 241715 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 115 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure centered over the Great Lakes and northern Mid Atlantic states will extend south into our region through Monday. Hurricane Maria is forecast to move north through the western Atlantic, paralleling the SE Coast through midweek.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 955 AM Sunday... Subsidence associated with the stacked anticyclone centered over the NE and Mid-Atlantic states will support dry and stables conditions with a continuation of above-normal temperatures across central NC as afternoon temperatures top out once again in the mid to upper 80s. However, a steady 5 to 10 kt northerly breeze coupled with afternoon dewpoints mixing out in the lower 60s will make it rather pleasant. Highs in the mid to upper 80s. Lows in the lower to mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 258 AM Sunday... Hurricane Maria continues to be forecast by the NHC to track north through the open waters of the western Atlantic as surface high pressure remains back over the central Appalachians through Monday night. Outflow from the hurricane is expected to spread increasing high cloudiness west and north into eastern NC especially Monday afternoon and night. Sunny and dry conditions inland will give way to increasing cloudiness down east. Highs should still reach the mid to upper 80s (warmest in the western Piedmont where the drier, sunnier conditions will prevail). Further increasing in clouds from the east expected Monday night with lows 65-70, except lower 60s western Piedmont. In addition, the high pressure inland combined with Marie offshore will allow for a tightening pressure gradient. This will allow the surface winds to begin to increase to 15-20 mph over the Coastal Plain Monday afternoon, with 10-15 mph winds over the western Piedmont. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 258 AM Sunday... The latest NHC forecast and most of the latest guidance indicate the closest approach of Hurricane Maria to the NC coast should be from Wednesday through Thursday morning, before the storm finally gets a boot eastward from the expected deepening and digging mid/upper trough from the upper Midwest. Based on the latest NHC forecasts and guidance, the system has the potential to bring windy (15-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph) to our Coastal Plain midweek, with breezy (10- 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph) conditions to the Piedmont and Sandhills regions. The probability of Tropical Storm-Force Wind Speed in our SE Coastal Plain has increased to between 20 and 30 percent, with only 5-10 percent back over the Triad and Triangle areas. However, the QPF is still low given the latest NHC track. Probabilities of 1+ inch are still less than 50/50 along the I-95 corridor. Sensible weather will be quite variable given the current track - with dry northerly flow in the western Piedmont, and progressively lower overcast and higher shower chances to the east. Expect cloudy skies east, variably cloudy central, and partly cloudy to mostly clear along the Yadkin River mid week. Lows will be generally 65-72 W to SE Tue-Thu, with highs held down in the east (upper 70s), ranging to the upper 80s SW. Finally, the TC threat should get pushed seaward Thursday courtesy of the approaching mid/upper trough. The leading front should little if any showers Thursday afternoon and night (as the front will be robbed of moisture by the Maria). Highs in the mid to upper 80s expected. Friday and Saturday will be much cooler with the strong surface high pressure building SE from central Canada to the upper Midwest. Highs Friday 75-82, then only 70-75 Saturday. Lows in the 50s (some 40s in the NW by Saturday). Models do suggest a potential wave on the front over FL or the SE coast by Sunday, with an increasingly moist NE flow in the lower levels. We will carry chance POPs late in the weekend to indicate the chance of overrunning rain by then. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/ As of 115 PM Sunday...
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24 Hour TAF Period: VFR conditions are generally expected to continue through the 24 hour TAF period as high pressure extends into the area from the north. A steady 3 to 5kt northerly breeze should preclude any widespread fog development overnight. Outlook: As Hurricane Maria moves northward through the western Atlantic near a latitude of the NC coast, eastern terminals could see some sub-VFR ceilings as early as Monday night/Tuesday morning with breezy northerly winds developing by Tuesday and lingering into Wednesday. Based on the latest NHC official track, little precipitation
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CBL/Badgett NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...BSD/Badgett LONG TERM...Badgett AVIATION...CBL

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