Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 300110 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 908 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN WEAKEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST... AND AN ATTENDANT COASTAL FRONT MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 908 PM TUESDAY... ...NEAR RECORD LOWS TONIGHT... THE SUNSET WAS ONLY 45 MINUTES AGO AND ALREADY THE TEMPERATURES WERE REPORTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS OUR NE ZONES INCLUDING: THE REPORTS FROM LOUISBURG... TARBORO... HALIFAX... AND HENDERSON. THERE WERE SOME MID 70S REPORTED FROM THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS. THE LATEST IR SATELLITE DATA INDICATED SOME PATCHY MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 10K FEET. RAOB DATA AT 00Z/30 JULY FROM GREENSBORO INDICATED THE MID LEVEL INVERSION CONTINUED TO EXIST NEAR H7 WHICH CONTINUED TO TRAP SOME MOISTURE AT THAT LEVEL. TRENDS DO SUGGEST A DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF THE PATCHY CLOUDINESS IN THE PAST 3 HOURS. THESE TRENDS ARE SUPPORTED IN THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH GENERALLY SUGGESTS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS IN MIND AND CONSIDERING THE DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE (DEW POINTS 50-60 DEGREES)... WE WILL LOWER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THIS WILL NOW YIELD LOWS OF LOWER 50S NORTH AND EAST (RURAL AREAS) INTO THE LOWER 60S AROUND THE URBAN AREAS OF FAYETTEVILLE. CURRENT PROJECTIONS INDICATE LOWS OF 59 AT RALEIGH... 58 AT GREENSBORO... AND 61 AT FAYETTEVILLE. THESE FORECASTS WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE (2-3 DEGREES) TO THE DAILY RECORD LOWS FOR JULY 30. THEY INCLUDE: RALEIGH 56 DEGREES SET IN 1946... GREENSBORO 56 DEGREES SET IN 1946... AND FAYETTEVILLE 59 SET IN 1920.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 310 PM TUESDAY... WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND BUT STILL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS WITH UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ONCE AGAIN FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER IN THE 5-8 KFT RANGE WILL HAVE THE HEAVIEST CONCENTRATION IN EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA WHICH MAY HELP KEEP MAX TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO FROM FORECASTED HIGHS.DEEP UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY...THOUGH WITH A BRIEF RELAXATION AND HEIGHT RISES ALOFT BETWEEN A SHORTWAVE LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND ENERGY DIVING THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES. THICKNESSES RISE ABOUT 10M OVER WEDNESDAY...STARTING OUT AT 1395M THURSDAY MORNING...WHICH SHOULD YIELD 83-87 UNDER MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S WILL LIMIT CAPE TO A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG OR LESS...THOUGH A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY HELP ENHANCE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SEABREEZE. ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA. CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH. LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 60S.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 310 PM TUESDAY... THE FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD IS ONE OF MIXED CONFIDENCE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...PLACING NC IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET ALONG THE SPINE OF THE MOUNTAINS. AN INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MEANDER WESTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AND THEN LIKELY WASH OUT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD. THIS WILL CAUSE PW TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO UPWARDS OF TWO INCHES BY SUNDAY. WHILE THIS POINTS TOWARD A WET WEEKEND...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHEN IT COMES TO BEST TIME FRAME FOR PRECIP. ON FRIDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING A DISTURBANCE EMANATING FROM CONVECTION OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THAT SWEEPS AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND THEN LIFTS ACROSS OUR REGION. ITS HARD TO PUT MUCH FAITH IN SUCH A FEATURE THREE DAYS OUT...BUT ALL MODELS HAVE SHOWN AN INCREASE IN QPF FOR FRIDAY...SO HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE 40-50 RANGE. HOWEVER...BEYOND FRIDAY THERE IS VERY LITTLE TO KEY ON FOR FORCING OTHER THAN THE AFOREMENTIONED JET AND WEAKENING COASTAL TROUGH. THUS...WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN EACH DAY BE KEEP THEM BELOW 50 PERCENT UNTIL IT BECOMES MORE APPARENT WHICH DAY WILL BE FAVORED. THUNDER POTENTIAL LOOKS LIMITED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND RELATIVELY COOL DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. A WARMING TREND SHOULD ENDUE BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AND BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHEN TO OUR EAST. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 745 PM TUESDAY... 24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW. LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID-DAY FRIDAY ACROSS CENTRAL NC AS THE DRY AIRMASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE SLOWLY MODIFIES. EXPECT AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CEILINGS AND SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COASTAL FRONT RETROGRADES INLAND INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE...IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...VINCENT NEAR TERM...32 SHORT TERM...ELLIS/BLS LONG TERM...BLS AVIATION...VINCENT

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