Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 110730 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 230 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will extend over the Gulf of Mexico and southeast states today through tonight. A dry cold front will cross North Carolina Tuesday, ushering in even colder air for mid week. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 927 PM Sunday... Clipper-like wave aloft that can be seen rotating SEWD into the Southern and Central Appalachians, will move through the region over the next several hours. Given very dry airmass(PWAT ~0.25") in place, this feature is expected to yield only thin high cloudiness, having little to no influence on radiational cooling. Lows tonight ranging from lower to mid 20s where snow cover still exists to upper 20s elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM /Monday through Monday night/... As of 209 PM Sunday... A short wave dropping SE across the western Great Lakes region will back the flow over our area, thus allowing for warming. Low level thicknesses will increase nearly 50m over the next 24-30 hours. Thus highs tomorrow will range from around 50 across the Triad, to low 50s Triangle, to mid 50s around Fayetteville. Otherwise, look for another day with plenty of sunshine, and perhaps some passing mid and high clouds Monday evening ahead of the aforementioned short wave. Passing mid and high clouds will continue overnight as the short wave and its attendant cold front crosses the Ohio Valley. Lows Monday night will fall to around freezing...a little warmer than previous nights thanks to the aforementioned clouds and an overall warming trend ahead of the front. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 230 AM Sunday... The quieter weather pattern continues mid week, as general troughing in the east gives way to a more zonal pattern toward the end of the period. Wednesday looks to be the coldest day across central North Carolina, with afternoon highs failing to reach the 40 degree mark under a brisk northwest wind. Southerly to southwesterly flow returns early Thursday, allowing a brief warmup to more seasonable temperatures to take place. Around this same time, an area of low pressure looks to develop off of the Carolinas, introducing shower chances into the forecast Friday afternoon and evening. Model differences take hold at this point, with a much wetter and more amplified GFS model introducing an additional wave or two of precipitation to the region before the end of the weekend, while a much drier ECMWF keeps us under high pressure. For now, have limited shower activity at the end of the period until better consensus is observed.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z Monday through Friday/... As of 1240 AM Monday... VFR conditions are a near certainty for the next 24 hours, as a surface high pressure ridge extends into the area from the WSW. Vsbys will be unrestricted, with no cigs. Surface winds will be light, under 8 kts, from the W, shifting to SW then S late today into tonight. Looking beyond 06z Tue: There is a low-confidence chance of sub-VFR conditions at GSO/INT early Tue morning (08z-12z) with increasing low level moisture ahead of the approaching dry cold front. Winds will shift back to northwesterly after frontal passage Tue. Otherwise, VFR conditions will dominate through at least Thu night. Sub-VFR conditions are possible with rain chances increasing Fri as an upper trough approaches. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...np LONG TERM...JJM AVIATION...Hartfield

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