Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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620 FXUS62 KRAH 250804 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 404 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will extend across the region through the remainder of the week, as a strong upper level ridge builds overhead. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 345 AM Thursday... On the eastern periphery of a 596m ridge at 500mb, water vapor imagery and dynamic trop maps depict a compact tropopause disturbance diving south across the area this morning. This has only resulted in a few extra clouds and will go mostly unnoticed. the aforementioned ridge will build eastward over the TN Valley today, continuing the warming trend and dry conditions over central. Some CAMs suggest convection over the higher terrain will progress southeast into the Piedmont late this afternoon, but limited moisture and instability will make it hard for much more than an isolated storm to reach the northwest Piedmont. Highs 89-93. The surface ridge axis will shift east tonight, favoring a little better cooling over the coastal plain, with lows ranging from the upper 60s to around 70 east to west. && .SHORT TERM / FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 345 AM Thursday... The center of the upper ridge -forecast at 594dm- will shift east and be centered over southwest VA on Friday, bringing the 850mb thermal ridge across northwest NC and southern VA. 850mb temps around 21C favor highs in the upper 90s, and while mixing may not be quite that deep, highs should be on the upper end of guidance, 93- 96. dew points creeping back into the lower 70s area while will spell a return of humid conditions and heat indices back around 100F. A weakening cold front is forecast to drop into VA Friday evening, but ahead of the front lows on Friday night will be in the lower 70s for most areas.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 355 AM Thursday... Continued hot on day 3/Sat, but with moderating temperatures and increasing focus on the tropical N. Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico through early to mid next week. The models indicate a strong sub-tropical ridge --one characterized by mid level heights of 587 dm at 500 mb and 325 dm at 700 mb centered over nrn ms/al per 00z raob data-- will migrate across the Central Appalachians and Middle Atlantic states through the weekend. After another associated hot day on Sat, with low level thickness values and high temperatures similar to or only very marginally lower than those of Fri, deep layer nely flow around the NEWD- expanding ridge will shunt the center of the associated heat WWD into the TN and OH Valleys by Sunday. The models then remain in relatively good agreement that the ridge will remain centered over the Middle Atlantic states, though in a gradually weakened state, through the end of the forecast period. Under the influence of the ridge, precipitation chances will remain slim, with the relative highest (slight chance) invof the sea breeze /over ERN NC/ through at least Mon. Model spread remains high with respect to the location and intensity of what ultimately becomes of the area of disturbed weather that Air Force Reconnaissance is scheduled to investigate in a few hours between Puerto Rico and the Bahamas. Forecast uncertainty consequently remains higher than average for the middle of next week, so no significant changes have been made to the previous forecast of increasing moisture/clouds/precipitation chances in central NC Tue-Wed.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 145 AM Thursday... High confidence in predominately VFR conditions through the TAF period, as strong high pressure remains in control of the region. As was the last last night, there will likely be a period of IFR or LIFR vsby after 08z at RWI, with MVFR vsbys more likely at RDU AND FAY. Confidence is much higher at RWI. All terminals will return to VFR by around 12z. Outlook: Persistence of high pressure over the region will continue to promote VFR conditions, with early morning fog possible each morning. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BLS NEAR TERM...BLS SHORT TERM...BLS LONG TERM...MWS AVIATION...BLS

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