Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 240454 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1255 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A STRONG AND DRY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 930 PM SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED JUST OFF DELMARVA. HOWEVER...STRONG UPPER RIDGING WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SATELLITE DATA INDICATED CLEAR SKIES OVER ALL OF NC EXTENDING WEST TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION WHERE A FEW CIRRUS WERE NOTED. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND MOVING VERY LITTLE... CLEAR CALM CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE THE LOWS THIS MORNING. EXPECT MOSTLY 45-50 NORTH AND LOWER 50S SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 1200 PM SATURDAY... THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING EASTWARD TO THE CO FRONT RANGE TONIGHT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SUN/SUN NIGHT... SHIFTING THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS. WITH ONGOING HEIGHT RISES /SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE/...THE PRONOUNCED SFC RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE. AS A RESULT...EXPECT CONTINUED DRY/PLEASANT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND...HIGHS SUN IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS SUN NIGHT NEAR 60F. -VINCENT && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 930 PM SATURDAY... STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL LIKELY MAX OUT EARLY IN THE WEEK ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODELS. A DRY AND VERY WARM PERIOD WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE WEEK... BUT ANY FRONTAL SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLOCKED TO OUR WEST DUE TO THE LINGERING UPPER RIDGING. HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH 90 OVER SOME AREAS... MOST LIKELY THE SANDHILLS... WITH MID TO UPPER 80S COMMON ELSEWHERE. LOWS IN THE 60S CAN BE EXPECTED. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 1255 AM SUNDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND STRONGLY WESTWARD ACROSS NC THROUGH TONIGHT... WHILE ALOFT... DRY RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE CAROLINAS AND JUST OFFSHORE. SCATTERED FLAT CUMULUS WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH BASES WELL ABOVE 4KFT AGL. SURFACE WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SSW AT 7-10 KTS BY 15Z... THEN DROP BACK BELOW 7 KTS BY 00Z TONIGHT. LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY MON MORNING: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS AT INT/GSO AND PERHAPS RDU LATE MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING (08Z-13Z) AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE WESTERN TERMINALS THEN SPREADS SLOWLY EASTWARD. WILL THEN HAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS LATE TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING ESPECIALLY AT INT/GSO. A FEW SHOWERS/ STORMS WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WED AND THU AFTERNOONS ESPECIALLY AT INT/GSO... BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE. -GIH
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...BADGETT SHORT TERM...VINCENT LONG TERM...BADGETT AVIATION...HARTFIELD

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