Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 060245 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1045 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A FRONT NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ON MONDAY...AND A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 1030 PM SUNDAY... MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK VERY SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST. PERTURBATIONS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL TRACK OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT DURING THIS TIME FRAME. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE HELPED TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION...OF WHICH SOME IS STILL OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT/NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. SEVERAL OF THE STORMS BECAME SEVERE EARLIER THIS EVENING AS MLCAPE VALUES SOARED INTO 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. STORMS HAVE LARGELY WEAKENED LATE THIS EVENING...BUT FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS STILL OCCURRING. ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF CONVECTION EXITS THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN PRECIP FREE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN THE MOISTURE RICH AIR MASS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRANSVERSING THE AREA...A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS...GENERALLY UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 325 PM SUNDAY... A 850-700MB TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. WITH HEATING OF THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE...SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NC THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE ENHANCED OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN IN VICINITY OF THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR RELATIVELY WEAK AND AVAILABLE INSTABILITY ALSO WEAK SO SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPS DEPENDENT UPON EXTENT/DURATION OF LOW CLOUDS IN THE MORNING...AND WHEN/EXTENT OF CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON. FAVOR MAX TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN MOS CONSENSUS (UPPER 80S FAR NORTH- NW TO NEAR 90-LOWER 90S SOUTH). MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WILL AGAIN DIMINISH/DISSIPATE WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUNSET. WITH BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LIFTING AWAY FROM OUR REGION...DO NOT EXPECT ANY ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. MIN TEMPS 67-73. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY... THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND AMPLIFY OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC FEATURES...INCLUDING FRONTS...REMAINING TO OUR NORTH. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 70S. THE LATEST GFS AND THE 00Z EURO GUIDANCE BOTH SUGGEST TEMPS MAY TRY TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S LATER IN THE WEEK...AND THIS MAKE SENSE GIVEN THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST DURING THAT TIME. AS SUCH...WILL LIKELY NEED TO RAMP UP ADVERTISING HEAT IMPACTS AND SAFETY ONCE AGAIN AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEK. AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY- DIURNAL SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE TUE/WED BEFORE THE RIDGE BECOMES WELL-ESTABLISHED...AND LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT WEST AND WEAKEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST. OVERALL...PRECIP CHANCES AT OR BELOW CLIMO DURING THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 900 PM SUNDAY... 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: THUNDER MOVING THROUGH KRDU IS ON A WEAKENING TREND AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT HALF HOUR OR SO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY STILL AFFECT THE TRIAD SITES LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS GENERALLY VARIABLE AT 5- 10 KTS. MAY SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES/CEILINGS IN RAIN COOLED AREAS OVERNIGHT BUT OTHERWISE NOT EXPECTING TOO MANY RESTRICTIONS TO AVIATION CONDITIONS. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PREVAIL AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. LONG TERM: CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE IN THE COMING DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE PATTERN A LITTLE MORE. STILL LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && ..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SEC NEAR TERM...KRD SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...RAH AVIATION..ELLIS

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