Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 190001 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 801 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure at the surface and ridging aloft will keep conditions warm and dry for the next few days. A cold front will approach from the west towards the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 140 PM Tuesday... High pressure and very light southwest flow to keep things marginally mixed tonight. Fog will be minimized with lows within a degree +/- of 60. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 140 PM Tuesday... Tomorrow will likely be the warmest day of the week as high pressure continues to dominate the surface pattern with sunny skies. Thicknesses inch up a bit to suggest high temperatures topping out in the mid 80s. This will flirt with the record at GSO (86 degrees). Again tomorrow night...light southerly flow with little cloud cover. Low temperatures in the low 60s. && .LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/... As of 140 PM Tuesday... For Thursday, high pressure lingers to produce a final unseasonably warm day near 85, which will again threaten, but likely fall just short of the record highs at RDU (87) and GSO (86). A cold front will be reaching the mountains on Thursday night and moving into central NC by sunrise Friday. Models continue to support a rapid passage with minimal moisture advection and strongest forcing north of the area. As such, will maintain ongoing small chance PoPs in the west in the morning shifting to the east in the afternoon. Highs will range from around 70 west, where cold air advection will be underway early, to mid mid 70s east. Saturday will see coldest airmass of the week oozing into place and highs will top out in the low to mid 60s despite increasing sun. Ridging aloft will produce dry weather and a modest warming trend into next week, wit highs Sunday in the mid to upper 60s warming to the low 70s Monday and Tuesday. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 740 PM Tuesday... 24 Hour TAF period: VFR conditions are generally expected to continue through the 24 hour TAF period as high pressure continues to provide the area with dry conditions and mostly clear/mostly sunny skies. However, some patchy sub-VFR visbys may again develop tonight, though confidence is low any central NC TAF sites will experience any sub-VFR visbys (best chance KRWI). Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected, with a light southwesterly wind. Long term: VFR conditions are generally expected through the weekend, although a cold front moving across the area on Friday may be accompanied by some sub-VFR aviation conditions.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Ellis/mlm NEAR TERM...mlm SHORT TERM...mlm LONG TERM...mlm AVIATION...bsd/mlm is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.