Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 261831 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 230 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM OFFSHORE THE NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NC TODAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 AM SUNDAY... LITTLE CHANGE REQUIRED TO NEAR TERM FORECAST. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS THAT THE MID LEVEL FLOW HAS BACKED TO A WLY FLOW VERSUS A NW FLOW 12 HOURS AGO. THIS SIGNALS ADDITIONAL WARMING IN THE MID LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...SUGGESTING A MID LEVEL INVERSION. THIS SET-UP SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SHOULD END UP ABOUT 8-10M WARMER THAN SATURDAY. THIS YIELDS MAX TEMPS NEAR 90-LOWER 90S...COMPARABLE TO CURRENT FORECAST. -WSS A VORT MAX OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...TO NEAR THE NJ COAST BY 12 MON. THE APPROACH OF THAT FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED MAINLY MID-LEVEL MOISTENING MAY SUPPORT THE MAINTENANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN VA...A FEW OF WHICH MAY CLIP THE FAR NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT AND/OR NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK MON. NOT AS (UNSEASONABLY) COOL...WITH LOWS GENERALLY AROUND 70 DEGREES. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY... A DEVELOPING NW FLOW ALOFT AIDED BY THE STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BUILDING EASTWARD WILL BRING HOTTER TEMPERATURES MONDAY. A WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH IS EXPECTED WHICH COULD HELP INITIATE A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS... HOWEVER CHANCES APPEAR LOW AT THE CURRENT TIME. HIGHS 90-95. LOWS GENERALLY 70-73 AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY... THE LONG TERM PATTERN PROMINENTLY FEATURES A LOWER MS VALLEY RIDGE CENTERED NEAR AR/OK ON TUESDAY THAT SHIFTS WEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY SUNDAY. HEIGHTS INITIALLY RISE A BIT FROM TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC BEFORE AN EASTERN U.S. TROUGH DEVELOPS INTO THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH WEAK TROUGHING EXTENDING ALONG THE COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE INTO AND STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A WEAK WAVE OR TWO OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE WEEKEND. THE EVENTUAL LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND ITS EVOLUTION WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IN CENTRAL NC. RISING HEIGHTS AND A WARMING ATMOSPHERE WILL LEAD TO HOTTER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS IN CENTRAL NC FROM TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CHANCE OF A MAINLY AFTERNOON OR EVENING THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY REDUCED CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL CLIMB FROM THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 ON TUESDAY TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S BY THURSDAY. THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES ON THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND LIKELY STALLS NEAR OUR REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWER HEIGHTS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER. HIGHS WILL RANGE AROUND 90 ON FRIDAY AND IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 OVER THE WEEKEND. -BLAES && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 100 PM SUNDAY... VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH THIS EVENING. AFTER 06Z MONDAY...POCKETS OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY IN FOG SHOULD DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY OVER SECTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN...AND POSSIBLY IMPACTING KRWI AND KFAY. THE RETURN SLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF A RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF EARLY MORNING FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE TIED TO DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT. FOR THE BULK OF THE REGION...AFTERNOON-EVENING CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED THOUGH SCATTERED COVERAGE ANTICIPATED WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSS OUR VICINITY. AT THIS TIME...GUIDANCE FAVORS AN UPTICK IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON MONDAY...AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...26 NEAR TERM...WSS/26 SHORT TERM...PWB LONG TERM...BLAES AVIATION...WSS

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