Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 281706 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 105 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN STALLED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO THE REGION AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ALONG THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 1040 AM THURSDAY... N-S ORIENTED SHEAR AXIS THATS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST THROUGH THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN/NORTHEAST COUNTIES NEAR THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE IN PLACE NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. WV IMAGERY AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES PRONOUNCED DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR AXIS PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE AREA. THIS COULD DELAY CONVECTIVE RE-DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALLOWING AMPLE SUNSHINE AND HEATING WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 80-87 RANGE...COOLEST ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZATION OF 1500-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD LEAD TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION WITH SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT GOING ON OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS. STRENGTHENING WESTERLY H5 FLOW WILL IMPROVE SHEAR VALUES TO 35 TO 40KTS...FAVORABLE FOR MULTICELLS WITH ONE OR TWO SEVERE CLUSTERS POSSIBLE. MAIN THREAT WILL DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL THOUGH GUIDANCE DIFFERS MARKEDLY IN THE MAGNITUDE. EXPECT PRECIP CHANCES TO GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST-EAST THIS TONIGHT AS THE STORMS PUSH EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM NEAR 60 NORTH TO MID 60S SE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 310 AM THURSDAY... FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE BOTH SETTING UP TO BE DRIER AS THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC LEAVING BEHIND A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NC. IT WILL TURN COOLER ESPECIALLY FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND... AND BRIEFLY EXTEND INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BEGIN TO SHOW THE COOLING ARRIVING FROM THE NORTH WITH 70S EXPECTED ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER RANGING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER COUNTIES. THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY... IT SHOULD BEGIN MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY... THEN EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDINESS SATURDAY. SOME OF THE ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE CHANCE OF RAIN DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTH... ESPECIALLY IN THE PM. WE WILL TREND THAT WAY AS MORE MODELS SUGGEST A QUICKER ONSET. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S EXPECTED. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 70S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 310 AM THURSDAY... SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NOW LOOK TO BE WET WITH PERIODS OF RAIN... BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING ON SUNDAY. MODELS OFTEN SCOUR OUT CAD TOO QUICKLY... EVEN IN THE SPRING (WARM SEASON). THIS LOOKS TO BE A GREAT CASE OF THAT OVER OUR PIEDMONT DAMMING REGION SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF WAA RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS OUR REGION WITH AN AMPLE SUPPLY OF WESTERN ATLANTIC THEN GULF MOISTURE THAT WILL LIFT UP AND OVER THE DEVELOPING FRONT/THEN COOL STABLE DOME SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AND USING THE ENSEMBLE APPROACH ALONG WITH PATTERN RECOGNITION... THE MAIN PARENT LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT TO ARRIVE IN OUR REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. OUT AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM SUNDAY... A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT BACK INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS SUNDAY. HOWEVER... IN-SITU/HYBRID CAD WILL LEAD TO INCREASING STABILITY AND THE DIABATIC PROCESS SHOULD THE RAIN BECOME WIDESPREAD AS CURRENTLY EXPECTED WILL LEAD TO MUCH COOLER HIGHS IN THE 60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE BETWEEN 0.25 TO 0.75 FOR THE QPF. THERE MAY BE A RATHER LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AND RAINFALL GRADIENT FROM SE TO NW FROM CLINTON TO WINSTON-SALEM BY LATE SUNDAY IF THE WARM FRONT CAN SURGE INTO THE SE ZONES (PER SOME OF THE MODELS INCLUDING THE LATEST EC). SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY SHOULD REMAIN RATHER UNSETTLED WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SLOW TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. THEN WHEN THE FRONT DOES MOVE THROUGH... IT MOSTLY LIKELY WILL STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES INTO TUESDAY. FOR THOSE THAT NEED RAINFALL AND COOLER TEMPERATURES... THIS LOOKS TO BE A GREAT SHOT AT BOTH. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 1PM THURSDAY... 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT DESTABILIZATION IN THE WARM SECTOR JUST SOUTH OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS NORTHEAST NC WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW OF THE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/LOCATION IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE...EXPECT THAT NORTHERN TERMINALS ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY THE STRONGEST STORMS. AS THE STORMS MOVE EAST OF THE AREA...AREAS OF STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING(06 TO 12Z)...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL. ANY LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY MID MORNING WITH DRY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH THE STALLED FRONT FINALLY FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. LOOKING AHEAD: THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL QUICKLY RETURN AS A WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY...BRINGING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CEILINGS ON SATURDAY. WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF A SLOWING MOVING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WITH RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...VINCENT NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...BADGETT LONG TERM...BADGETT AVIATION...CBL

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