Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 102008 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 308 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain across the area through Monday. A dry cold front will cross the Carolinas early Tuesday, followed by much colder temperatures for the midweek period. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 209 PM Sunday... High clouds currently seen on satellite over IL and IN are progged to continue drifting toward the SE on the back side of the longwave trough over the East. Those high clouds will drift across our area late this evening or overnight. Aside from these high clouds, fair weather is expected tonight with our area under the influence of dry westerly flow and high pressure building in from the west. With low level thicknesses staying the same or slowly increasing, tonight`s lows will be mainly a function of radiational cooling, temporarily slowed by the aforementioned clouds as they pass by. With current dwpts in the low-mid 20s, expect low temps tonight generally in the mid 20s. Unless we hear of reports otherwise, we`re not planning to issue a WSW for black ice since today`s sunshine and breezy winds have dried most if not all of the roads. && .SHORT TERM /Monday through Monday night/... As of 209 PM Sunday... A short wave dropping SE across the western Great Lakes region will back the flow over our area, thus allowing for warming. Low level thicknesses will increase nearly 50m over the next 24-30 hours. Thus highs tomorrow will range from around 50 across the Triad, to low 50s Triangle, to mid 50s around Fayetteville. Otherwise, look for another day with plenty of sunshine, and perhaps some passing mid and high clouds Monday evening ahead of the aforementioned short wave. Passing mid and high clouds will continue overnight as the short wave and its attendant cold front crosses the Ohio Valley. Lows Monday night will fall to around freezing...a little warmer than previous nights thanks to the aforementioned clouds and an overall warming trend ahead of the front. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 308 PM Sunday... The highly amplified pattern, with cold trough in the east and the warm ridge out west is expected to deamplify late week. After another quick shot over very cold air Tuesday into Wednesday night, a moderation in temperatures can be expected Thursday into the weekend. As this pattern becomes more zonal late this week, and most likely transitional (back to another highly amplified pattern in 6- 10 days), the uncertainty will increase significantly in the details of the forecast. Therefore, we will keep out any precipitation late week or over the weekend due to the considerable spread in the overall guidance by then. As far as temperatures, the coldest period will be Tuesday night through Thursday morning when lows are expected to be 19-25 and highs in the 30s Wednesday. The warmest readings should be next weekend when highs potentially will reach well into the 50s to near 60 SE. && .AVIATION /18Z Sunday through Friday/... As of 1217 PM Sunday... VFR conditions are expected through the 24 hour TAF period, thanks to mainly clear skies as high pressure builds in from the west. W to NW winds 10+ kts attm will diminish to SW 5kt or less this evening. After 11/18Z: Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the week with high pressure and dry airmass for most of this time period. The exceptions will be associated with cold front passages Tuesday, and another one late Thursday or early Friday. However, right now these systems are expected to pass by without any precip or reduced cig/vsby. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...np NEAR TERM...np SHORT TERM...np LONG TERM...pwb AVIATION...np

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