Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 210413 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1213 AM EDT FRI OCT 21 2016 .SYNOPSIS... An amplifying upper level trough and attendant cold front will track east across the Carolinas today. A cooler and drier airmass will advect into the region from the northwest in the wake of the front tonight and Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... As of 1215 AM Friday... Little moisture advection will occur in advance of the approaching cold front early this morning given a weak/baggy MSLP gradient and poor diurnal timing. Though diurnal timing will be more favorable in the Coastal Plain, theta-e advection remains marginal at best given weak southerly flow and insufficient time prior to fropa. Strong height falls /DCVA/ associated with the amplifying upper level trough progressing across the Carolinas today will generally lag the attendant cold front. Despite weak thermodynamics, strong upper level forcing attendant the amplifying upper trough should help compensate, supporting a potential for light shower activity along (or more likely) behind the cold front during the mid/late morning in the Western Piedmont, early/mid afternoon along the Highway 1 corridor (Triangle/Fay) and mid/late afternoon in the Coastal Plain (along/east of I-95). Highs today will occur relatively early in the day west of Hwy 1, and by early/mid afternoon east of Hwy 1. In the east, temperatures should rapidly fall from the 70s to upper 50s, esp east of Hwy 1. Gusty NW winds may accompany the cold frontal passage along/easy of Hwy 1 during the afternoon where cold advection will be augmented/enhanced by evaporative cooling assoc/w anafrontal /elevated/ precipitation. Expect highs ranging from the mid/upper 60s in the Triad to mid/upper 70s in the far SE Coastal Plain. Expect rapid clearing from west-east 3-6 hrs after the cold frontal passage at any given location, with clear skies and a NW breeze prevailing Friday night. Lows Saturday morning will be driven by both cold advection and radiational cooling, ranging from the low/mid 40s N/NW to mid/upper 40s S/SE. -Vincent && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 1215 AM Friday... Cool, clear and breezy today due to cold advection in the wake of an amplifying upper level wave tracking offshore the Carolina/Mid- Atlantic coast tonight and Saturday. Expect clear skies and a breezy NW wind with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s, coolest NW Piedmont. Chilly lows sat night in the lower 40s. -Vincent && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 315 PM Thursday... Dry and seasonably cool weather is expected for the weekend through the middle of the upcoming work week... The pattern during the period will feature an exiting high amplitude upper trough early Saturday with a northwest flow aloft expected for Saturday and Sunday. A dry cold front will drop south across the region on Monday. Upper level ridging will develop over the Gulf of Mexico on Monday and Tuesday and shift off the southeast coast on Thursday. A northern stream trough and the associated cold front will move into the Great Lakes on Thursday and into the Mid Atlantic on Friday. The sensible weather will feature dry weather through the period with near zero PoPs through Wednesday night. Chilly temperatures are expected on Saturday and Saturday night as cold air moves into the region behind the departing cold front. Have lowered temperatures a bit for both periods with highs now expected between 59 to 64. If winds decouple on Saturday night, we could have some lows in the upper 30s across the western Piedmont. Temperatures moderate on Sunday into Monday ahead of the dry cold front. Behind the front, cooler air returns with highs in the mid 60s on Tuesday and Wednesday with morning lows in the mid 40s. Clouds increase on Thursday ahead of the approaching system with temperatures warming back up to around 70. -Blaes && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1215 AM Friday... 24-hr TAF Period: VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through sunrise, except perhaps a short period of fog at the RWI terminal prior to sunrise. Shower activity and borderline MVFR/VFR ceilings are expected at all terminals today as a cold front tracks east across central NC. Expect the best chance for showers between 12-17Z at the INT/GSO terminals, 16-21Z at the RDU/FAY terminals, and 17-22Z at the RWI terminal. Southwesterly winds at ~10 kt will prevail in advance of the cold front, shifting rapidly to the NW at 10-15 kt sustained gusting 20-25 knots for 1-3 hours in the wake of the front. Somewhat stronger winds will be possible at eastern terminals where fropa timing will better coincide with peak heating. VFR conditions will rapidly return in the wake of the front, earliest at INT/GSO (this afternoon) and latest at RWI (this evening). Looking Ahead: Breezy NW winds will persist into Sat, sustained at 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20-25 kt, becoming westerly and weakening on Sunday. VFR conditions are expected to rule for the remainder of the weekend and through the majority of next week. -Vincent && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Vincent NEAR TERM...Vincent SHORT TERM...Vincent LONG TERM...BLAES AVIATION...Vincent is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.