Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 241738 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 140 PM EDT SAT SEP 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move south through the area late tonight and early Sunday. The front will move back northward as a warm front Monday and Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 130 PM Saturday... With the cold front still located over northern VA, observational data and the latest models strongly suggest that it will be well into the overnight before the it makes it into our region. A prefrontal trough was located over the foothills of VA and NC with dew points mixing out into the 50s and lower 60s into our NW Piedmont Triad region. East of the trough, lingering low level moisture in the east provided dew points ranging in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Highs this afternoon in the upper 80s to lower 90s will be slow to cool in the pre-frontal environment this evening. CAMS indicate a very low end chance of a shower with the front between 1100 PM and 300 AM in the NE zones, but the chance appears to be less than 15 percent. Otherwise, a clear and warm evening will give way to a low overcast that will spread/develop into the region from the NE later tonight and early Sunday. Cool advection will not begin until late, thus lows will be warm in the mid 60s NE, to near 70 in the south and west. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY and SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 130 PM Saturday... A quick turn from summer to fall expected Sunday with some hybrid CAD expected into the Piedmont region Sunday and Sunday night. Sunday will bring much more fall-like conditions led by the cooling NE flow and cloud cover. The cooling conditions will be pushed down the eastern seaboard by surface high pressure (1025 MB) centered over SE Canada. The high pressure ridge is forecast to extend southward into NC/SC into Sunday night before the ridge axis moves east. Models still bring low stratus deep into our region with even a chance of light drizzle in the NW Piedmont by early Sunday afternoon. It appears that little if any QPF can be expected as the moist upglide is expected to be too shallow for anything more that a trace to 0.01 or 0.02 in the northwest zones, with nothing more than a sprinkle expected elsewhere. Highs will be much cooler with overcast skies in much of the region. Highs Sunday will be coolest in the north-central Piedmont where readings may hold in the 60s. Elsewhere, highs will range into the 70s across the south and west. The overcast may break into variably cloudy skies in the SE, otherwise extensive cloudiness is expected through the day into Sunday night. Lows Sunday night in the upper 50s to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 320 AM Saturday... Model solutions are very much in step for the beginning of the long term with surface high pressure over New England heading out to sea on Monday and a deep low pressure system over the northern Great Lakes bringing a front over the Appalachians which will approach the forecast area Monday night into Tuesday. The best vorticity and jet dynamics will remain well to the north with this system. Couple that with nocturnal timing and there is not a lot going for the system as far as any kind of deep convection. Despite that, rain showers and some thunderstorms will be possible Monday night and Tuesday. There is some debate over how quickly the front will move through the area, so will keep slight chance pops in for the east through Wednesday but most of the forecast area should start to clear out by Tuesday night. Highs near 80 degrees Monday and Tuesday, dropping into the upper 70s Wednesday. Lows in the 60s. After Wednesday, the forecast is expected to be generally dry and cool for Thursday and Friday. There is a caveat, however, that the latest run of the ECMWF model has put a new wrinkle in the forecast and that is a strong upper low becoming cutoff from the main flow and sinking southward along the NC/TN border. If this were to happen, the dynamic support would be enough to bring precipitation into the region late in the week, however this is an anomalous scenario at this point so we will watch it but for now have decided to stay with the dry and cool forecast which will feature highs in the mid to upper 70s with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 140 PM Saturday... VFR conditions are expected this afternoon and evening. The main cold front to the north is not expected to arrive until late tonight. A NE flow will prevail behind the front later tonight. The probability of low CIGS in the LIFR range will increase after the front late tonight. MVRF fog will be likely before the front, with LIFR to IFR fog at KRWI. Looking beyond 12z/SUNDAY morning, IFR or LIFR CIGS will spread over all of central NC through daybreak as the backdoor front progresses toward the SSW through the area. Low CIGS will trend to MVFR during SUNDAY afternoon especially over the west and south at INT/GSO/FAY. MVFR conditions are expected elsewhere. This cloudiness will linger into Sunday night with hybrid CAD over the Piedmont into Monday morning. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...Badgett SHORT TERM...Hartfield LONG TERM...Ellis AVIATION...Badgett is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.