Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KRAH 310614 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 115 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY MORNING. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE CAROLINAS MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... AS OF 115 AM SATURDAY... ASIDE FROM SOME JET-STREAK CIRRUS OVER PART OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGES...CLEAR CONDITIONS WERE IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THE JET ALOFT IS FORECAST BY THE GFS AND NAM TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND OUT OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE DAY...ALTHOUGH A FLAT RIDGE AXIS ALOFT WILL APPROACH THE STATE TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AND MAYBE EVEN MORE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE 12000FT TO 15000FT RANGE OVERNIGHT BASED ON THE MOISTURE PROFILES FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS. K INDICES ARE NEGATIVE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT IN THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR WHERE THE CLOUD BASES MAY BE A LITTLE LOWER RELATIVE TO THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...BUT THE AIR MASS BELOW 700MB REMAINS DRY AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE CANADIAN CLOUD COVER MODEL WHICH TENDS TO DO PRETTY WELL WITH THE ONSET AND COVERAGE OF HIGHER CLOUDS INCREASES THE COVERAGE OF THOSE CLOUDS GRADUALLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AREAS FROM KFAY TO KRWI AND EAST TAKING LONGER TO GET AT LEAST BROKEN COVERAGE. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS WITH REGARD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WIND GUSTS IN THE TEENS KNOTS THIS MORNING. BASED ON SOME STIRRING OF THE WINDS CONTINUING EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS AND ANTICIPATE A FEW WIND GUSTS IN THE TEENS KNOTS THIS MORNING BEFORE ANY GUSTINESS SHOULD DIMINISH INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY THIS EVENING. UNDER GOOD SUNSHINE...1000-850MB THICKNESSES AND A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET MOS GUIDANCE SUGGEST HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...HIGHEST SOUTHWEST WHERE THE THICKNESSES WILL BE GREATER AND WINDS BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST SOONER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL SOMEWHAT QUICKLY THIS EVENING THEN TEND TO STABILIZE AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. LOWS TONIGHT 25 TO 30 NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 AND AROUND 30 ELSEWHERE. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TODAY COULD FALL TO NEAR 15 PERCENT BASED ON THE EXPECTED SURFACE DEW POINTS...BUT WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER COMPARED TO FRIDAY AND BY THE TIME DEW POINTS WOULD FALL TO THOSE LEVELS THE FREQUENCY OF ANY MODEST GUSTS SHOULD BE MUCH LOWER. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 335 PM FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST SUNDAY... AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW... AND INCREASING THICKNESSES WILL BRING HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SUNDAY... AROUND 50. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP AS THE LOW DEEPENS OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COAST... AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE MIDWEST... LEADING TO BREEZY CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL OVERTAKE THE REGION DURING THIS TIME... LEADING TO A LIKELY NONDIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND... WITH TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE 40S DURING THE DAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 309 PM FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... AS ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE BAJA MOVES EASTWARD TO THE GULF COAST. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY... POTENTIALLY MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IN THE THURS/FRI TIMEFRAME. GFS REMAINS CLOSE TO THE COAST WITH PRECIP MOVING IN LATER ON WEDNESDAY... 12Z ECMWF TAKES THE LOW OUT TO SEA WITH LITTLE LOCAL IMPACT... AND GFS ENSEMBLE HAS CONSIDERABLE VARIATION IN STRENGTH AND PROXIMITY TO THE COAST... SO CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME REMAINS LOW. TIMING WILL HAVE A GREAT IMPACT ON PTYPE... WITH ANY OVERNIGHT PRECIP POTENTIALLY BRINGING PTYPE ISSUES. AT THIS POINT... WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL TIMING/DEVELOPMENT CAN BE BETTER ASCERTAINED. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 115 AM SATURDAY... VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A FEW JET-STREAK CIRRUS IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND DURING THE DAY TODAY AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS HIGH- AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT MORE OF THE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TO APPEAR IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT...FROM AROUND 03Z AND LATER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ESPECIALLY FROM THE GFS SUGGEST A FEW WIND GUSTS INTO THE TEENS KNOTS WITH INITIAL MIXING THIS MORNING...BUT THE TREND OF ANY GUSTINESS SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND BY THIS EVENING. BEYOND THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND AREAS OF RAIN ARE LIKELY BY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA EARLY MONDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE TO SOUTHWEST AOA 50KT BY 2500FT. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WEST- NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJF NEAR TERM...DJF SHORT TERM...SEC LONG TERM...SEC AVIATION...DJF

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.