Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 240741 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 340 AM EDT Tue May 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS...An upper level low off the Mid-Atlantic coast will continue to move northeastward away from the area this morning. High pressure will build in to the region through midweek. && .NEAR TERM /through tonight/... As of 340 AM Tuesday... An upper level low located off the NJ coast this morning will move the New England coast today, giving way to 50m+ height rises and a developing subsidence inversion as a ridge near the MS River Valley builds toward the East Coast and a 1020mb high slides overhead. Lingering mid/upper level moisture over the northern Coastal Plain will depart with the upper low, yielding mostly sunny skies as thicknesses climb back toward normal to near 1390m this afternoon. Highs 80-84. the surface high will quickly shift off the Southeast coast tonight, but the pressure gradient will remain weak, resulting in strong radiational cooling and lows dipping back into the mid 50s. && .SHORT TERM /Wednesday and Wednesday Night/... As of 340 AM Tuesday... The warming trend will continue on Wednesday as a 588dm H5 ridge builds over the Deep South and return flow develops around the offshore high. Given better heating into the mid 80s to near 90, a thermally enhanced Piedmont trough should develop, but moisture return will will be slow with PW remaining below one inch, and a mid- level subsident cap will stifle any destabilization or convection. Some mid-clouds may drift in from the west late Wednesday night as disturbances emanating from Central Plains convection start to encroach on the region. Otherwise, another mostly clear night and lows in the low/mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/... As of 305 PM Monday... Wed-Fri: Warm and mainly dry. The mid level pattern will feature longwave troughing over the western CONUS with ridging in the east, albeit with a weakness aloft which will extend from a weak low over the central Bahamas northwestward across SW NC. At the surface, Bermuda-centered high pressure will ridge narrowly westward across the Southeast, yielding a light low level flow with minimal moisture influx. The above normal heights aloft and resulting subsidence, along with the absence of lift mechanisms and the lack of a good moisture source, will help suppress deep convection over central NC. While the aforementioned weakness in heights aloft to our SW may lead to scattered afternoon storms over the higher terrain, the steering flow pattern does not favor movement of any such convection into our area. Thickness will be well above normal, supporting highs each day in the mid 80s to around 90 (Thu appears likely to be the warmest of these days) with lows in the lower to mid 60s. Sat-Mon: Lots of uncertainty in the details, although guidance continues to favor temps staying slight above normal through the upcoming holiday weekend, but with an increasing chance of showers/storms by Sun/Mon. The western end of the surface ridge axis will pivot northward (following the strengthening of the Atlantic mid level ridge extending into the mid Atlantic region), and this will allow a long-fetch southeasterly flow to stream increasing amounts of moisture into the Southeast. Meanwhile, the Bahamas mid level low begins to drift to the NW into the height weakness toward the Southeast states, and model solutions are converging toward some similarity at the surface, showing either an inverted trough or low tracking northwesterly toward the Southeast coast. It is far too early to say whether or not this feature might have tropical or subtropical characteristics, but regardless, we are still likely to see an increase in clouds and precip chances as mid level heights fall and moisture increases and deepens through the low levels. Thicknesses support temps slightly above normal, tempered by the increase in clouds. -GIH && .AVIATION /06Z Tuesday through Saturday/... As of 130 AM Tuesday... There is a small chance of MVFR vsbys this morning, but the near surface moisture is likely too shallow for widespread vsby restrictions, if any. Meanwhile, an upper level low off the Mid- Atlantic coast will pull away from the region, with high pressure building in its wake. VFR conditions and a light northwesterly winds are expected to prevail Long term: VFR conditions should prevail through much of the week. The chance of showers/storms and adverse aviation conditions will increase over the upcoming weekend. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...22 NEAR TERM...22 SHORT TERM...22 LONG TERM...Hartfield AVIATION...22 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.