Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 300718 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 315 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY...AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... AS OF 315 AM MONDAY... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MIDWEST AND MID MISSISSIPPI REGIONS. NATIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS A PREFRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL NY...SOUTHWEST TO THE TN VALLEY WHERE A FEW TSTMS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS ACTIVITY. LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS ACTIVITY...AND SHOWS RAIN SHOWERS MOVING EAST AND REACHING OUR TRIAD ZONES BY 8 AM OR SO...THE TRIANGLE REGION BY 10 AM...AND THE I-95 CORRIDOR AROUND 11 AM. IT WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED...THANKS TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE ASSOC MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE...SO LOOK FOR THE RAIN TO END ACROSS THE TRIAD BY NOON...TRIANGLE BY 2 PM...AND THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY 4 PM. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL LAG BEHIND BY A FEW HOURS...MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NC DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. IN TERMS OF SHOWER INTENSITY...SINCE THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WON`T HAVE MUCH TIME TO RECOVER BEFORE WE CLOUD UP AND THE RAIN ARRIVES...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DURING PRECIP TIME ARE STABLE IN THE LOW LEVELS...SO WE`RE NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER ATTM. GIVEN THE LACK OF NOTABLE PREFRONTAL MOISTURE ADVECTION...COMBINED WITH THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM...QPF VALUES EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN A THIRD INCH. OTHERWISE...IT WILL TURN BREEZY FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AS THE PRES GRADIENT INCREASES WITH THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING. AS FOR TEMPS...AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID-UPR 30S ACROSS PARTS OF OUR CWA...AND RAIN KEEPING THINGS COOL THROUGH MID-DAY...HIGHS WILL OCCUR FAIRLY LATE IN THE DAY...PERHAPS EVEN IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW POST-FRONTAL W-TO-NW WINDS ACTUALLY WARMING THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS AND HELPING TO WARM TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 60S BEFORE SUNSET. FAIR WEATHER WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM WAVE MAY MOVE ACROSS LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...PERHAPS IN THE FORM OF SOME OROGRAPHIC CIRRUS. AS FOR TEMPS...CAA WILL BE FAIRLY SUBTLE AS DEMONSTRATED BY LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES DROPPING ONLY ABOUT 10-15M FROM PRE-FRONTAL VALUES. LOWS TONIGHT EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE TRIAD TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SANDHILLS. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 AM MONDAY... THE ACTIVE NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE...WITH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVING SE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS DURING THIS TIME. ITS ATTENDANT SFC FRONT...WHICH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AROUND MID-DAY...WILL PROGRESS EAST AND SOUTHWARD... CROSSING CENTRAL NC DURING THE EVENING TUESDAY. SINCE THERE WILL BE LITTLE OR NO OPPORTUNITY FOR MOISTURE RECOVERY BEHIND TODAY`S FRONT...THE FROPA TUESDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY. OTHERWISE...850MB FLOW IS PROGGED TO SHIFT FROM NW TO SW AND INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE...SO LOOK FOR TEMPS TO TREND WARMER...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO OUR AREA BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT...SO LOOK FOR CLEARING SKIES. DESPITE POST-FRONT CAA AS NOTED BY DOWNWARD TREND IN LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES...IT WILL BE BREEZY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING SOUTHWARD...SO LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 345 PM SUNDAY... THURSDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT...DEPICTING A WEAKENING MID LEVEL S/W IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM LIFTING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE SE U.S. MEANWHILE A S/W IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NEW ENGLAND...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT TOWARD CENTRAL NC BY THURSDAY NIGHT. BULK OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL LIKELY OCCUR MORE TO OUR WEST-SW...WITH SHOWER GENERATION DECREASING FARTHER EAST AS SYSTEM SHEARS OUT. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PULL WARM AIR INTO CENTRAL NC. THE MIXTURE OF SUN/CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD PERMIT TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE 70S AREAWIDE. IF SUN IS MORE PREVALENT THAN CLOUDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...COULD SEE TEMPS REACH/SLIGHTLY EXCEED 80 DEGREES OVER TEH SE HALF. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...SFC COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST-SE THROUGH THIS PERIOD...POSSIBLY EXITING OUR EASTERN COUNTIES BY MID DAY SATURDAY (BASED ON SLOWER GFS). APPEARS BULK OF SHOWERS FRIDAY WILL OCCUR WEST-NORTH OF CENTRAL NC...THOUGH INCREASING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT BY LATE IN THE DAY. SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD MAXIMIZE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY DEPENDENT ON SHOWER COVERAGE AND CLOUD THICKNESS. POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO REACH 80 AGAIN IN THE FAR SE FRIDAY AFTERNOON IF SHOWERS AND CLOUDS ARE DELAYED. SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FRIDAY IN THE FAR NORTH-NW DUE TO MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ANTICIPATED SATURDAY WITH SHOWER THREAT DIMINISHING NW- SE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. EASTER SUNDAY AT THIS TIME APPEARS DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NW. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 315 AM MONDAY... CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A PREFRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL NC DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN WILL ARRIVE AT INT/GSO AROUND 12Z...RDU BY 14Z...AND RWI/FAY BY 15Z. THE RAIN SHOULD BE FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED...SO LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO INT/GSO BY 18Z...AND RDU/RWI/FAY BY 21-22Z. ALSO WORTH NOTING IS CURRENT KRAX VWP WHICH SHOWS SW WINDS OF 45-50KT AT 1K FT...WHILE SFC WINDS ARE HOLDING AT AROUND 10KT. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE LLWS IN THE TAFS THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MORNING. WHILE THE LLWS MAY DECREASE LATER THIS MORNING...SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY...WITH PREFRONTAL SW WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15KT WITH 20+KT GUSTS THROUGH 30/23Z. FOR TONIGHT (AFT 30/23Z)...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MAINLY MID-HIGH CLOUDS. BEYOND TONIGHT...LOOK FOR MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY DETERIORATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY ASSOC WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RAH NEAR TERM...RAH SHORT TERM...RAH LONG TERM...WSS AVIATION...RAH

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