Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 181922 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 220 PM EST Sun Feb 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build over the area this afternoon, then quickly drift offshore later tonight. A warm front will lift north into the area late tonight and Monday. A strong high pressure will bring record warmth for February mid to late this week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1220 PM Sunday... Large scale sinking associated with high pressure tracking from WVA east across VA then offshore this afternoon will bring sunny skies to NC. Highs are favored between 55-60. Cloudiness will rapidly increase as WAA develops mid to late evening from the south and southwest. Occasional light rain and drizzle expected late tonight and Monday morning as a warm front lifts northward from SC into NC. In addition, areas of dense fog are forecast to develop between sunrise and late morning over much of the region as warm and moist air aloft spreads over the cooler and wet ground. Lows tonight in the lower to mid 40s, except 35-40 northern zones. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM Sunday... After the shortwave moves out on Monday morning, central NC will enter an extended period of summer like conditions with a strong Bermuda high in place bringing southerly return flow and warm air advection to the area. While it may take a CAD wedge a little while to break down, southern locales will see high temperatures pushing the 70 degree mark by Monday afternoon. The airmass will be fairly moist with dewpoints in the upper 50s across the south. If the wedge scours out sooner, temperatures in the Triad could be underdone. As is the case with moist southerly return flow, pockets of showers will be possible throughout the day on monday but largely inconsequential. Lows Monday night will be quite a bit more moderate, only reaching the low to middle 50s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 220 PM Sunday... High confidence for record-breaking warm weather for the middle of the week. A 595 ridge centered off the SE coast and resulting southerly flow over our area will give us unseasonably warm conditions during the middle of the week, with perhaps some record highs. This ridge will flatten and shift south during the latter half of the week, which will allow a cold front to approach from the north on Thursday, dropping southward to roughly the I-85 corridor. There is some uncertainty as to how far south into North Carolina the front will progress on Friday. Regardless, it appears that low-end PoPs will be needed for at least the northern half of our CWA for late Wednesday through Thursday. Thereafter, if the front lifts back north on Friday, that would result in a drier forecast for Friday and Saturday. However, if it pushes further south on Friday then lifts back north on Saturday, that would result in lingering rain chances both days. Dry and unseasonably warm weather is in store for Sunday. Temperature records are likely to be broken Tuesday, Wednesday, and perhaps Thursday. Maximum readings will be in the 70s to the lower 80s. Overnight lows in the 50s to around 60 will come close to record warm lows.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1220 PM Sunday... 24 Hour TAF Period: VFR conditions expected through 06z/Monday. Then a rapid increase in low level moisture will bring a low overcast in the LIFR range across the region between 06z and 12z/Monday. Occasional light rain and drizzle is expected to reduce visibilities into the LIFR to IFR range between 09z and 15z, before ending. However, both LIFR VSBYS and CIGS will continue with low stratus through 18z/Monday. Outlook from 18Z/Monday through Thursday: A gradual return to MVFR then VFR conditions are expected between 18z/Monday and 00z/Tuesday. CIGS may lower back into the LIFR range Tuesday night, before VFR conditions return early Wednesday. Generally VFR conditions are forecast mid to late week, with a low PROB of late night and early morning MVFR to IFR stratus fog in the warm and humid air mass for February. && .CLIMATE... RDU Records: Date | High Year | High Min Year ------------------------------------------ 02/20 75 1939 62 1939 02/21 76 2011 55 1939 02/22 75 1897 60 1897 02/23 79 1980 57 1962 02/24 81 1982 58 1985 GSO Records: Date | High Year | High Min Year ------------------------------------------ 02/20 74 1922 56 1939 02/21 74 2011 50 1954 02/22 74 1925 57 1980 02/23 74 2017 52 1922 02/24 79 1982 55 1985 FAY Records: Date | High Year | High Min Year ------------------------------------------- 02/20 82 2014 60 1939 02/21 80 1991 61 1953 02/22 77 2003 56 1989 02/23 80 1922 55 1922 02/24 83 1930 60 1975 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...Badgett SHORT TERM...Ellis LONG TERM...np/Franklin AVIATION...Badgett CLIMATE...Badgett

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