Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 190904 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 404 AM EST Mon Feb 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure is expected to drift offshore this morning as a weak warm front begins to lift north through the area. A strong high pressure will build back in on Tuesday, bringing the potential for record warmth by mid week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 400 AM Monday... Light rain persisting as a warm front starts to work northward into the area from central SC. This is providing substantial isentropic lift, particularly on the 290K surface. The area of light rain associated with this is progged to move northward and out of the area by about 15z with a few lingering showers into the afternoon. As surface high pressure moves northeastward off of the Cape Cod coast, a weak damming wedge will set up keeping temperatures in the Triad a bit cooler than the rest of the area today with highs in the mid 50s vs mid 60s across the south. As the high drifts further offshore, the wedge will break down and a southerly return flow pattern will take over. A very moist surface level will promote a period of dense fog late Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Lows in the upper 40s across the north to upper 50s in the southeast. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 400 AM Monday... Continued return flow pattern over central NC with the Bermuda high in place with an upper level ridge present off of the Carolina Coast. After fog burns off expect partly to mostly cloudy skies for much of the morning before some clearing by afternoon. Continued warm air advection will result in well above normal temperatures Tuesday afternoon with highs in the low 70s across the Triad to upper 70s to very close to 80 degrees in the southeast. No precipitation is expected, however a slight chance of a shower in the NW Piedmont is possible. Lows will moderate into the upper 50s to low 60s Tuesday night. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 4 AM Monday... A strong sub-tropical mid/upper level ridge is expected to extend into our region midweek, yielding near to record warmth across the area. High temps Wednesday are expected to range from the lower to mid 70s NW to the lower 80s SE. Warm overnight lows are expected for Thursday morning ahead of an approaching backdoor cold front, as the mid/upper level ridge shifts eastward, while sinking southward. Lows Thursday morning are expected to be near 60/lower 60s. The aforementioned backdoor front is expected to slowly shift southward into the area late Thursday afternoon, along with the potential for some showers across northern portions of the area. Expect highs on Thursday will range from near 70 far north to the lower 80s across the south. The cold front is now expected to sink southward across most if not all of the area Thursday night, with the front stalling near/just to the south of the NC/SC border. This will usher in a cooler feed of low level air from the north for Friday, with a big question of how long it will take for the for the stalled front to lift back northward as a warm front. Will trend the temps downward for Friday, especially across northern portions of the area and increase pops some as it appears we will at least see a brief CAD air mass take hold across some or all of the area on Friday. In fact, we may have a hard time climbing above the lower to mid 50s across the far north. However, given the uncertainty in the push of the cold air behind the front on Thursday night and questions about precip chances, will just lower highs to around 60 north to the lower to mid 70s far south for Friday. The front will lift north of the area by Saturday, yielding a warm weekend. The next cold front is expected to approach the area from the west on Saturday night and move into the area on Sunday afternoon/evening with increasing chances of showers. Expect highs in the 70s to near 80 for the weekend, with lows in the 50s and 60s.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1230 AM Monday... 24 Hour TAF Period: Strengthening southerly warm moist air advection will result in aviation conditions deteriorating rapidly between 06 to 12z. Ceilings will lower to IFR to LIFR between 06z to 14z, with light rain reducing visibilities to IFR to MVFR. The light rain is expected to taper to drizzle by late morning/early afternoon, before ending by mid afternoon. Once precip ends, ceilings are expected to lift to IFR and MVFR with visibilities improving to MVFR to VFR. However, CIGS/VSBYS are expected to quickly lower back into the IFR to LIFR range Monday night, with dense fog likely. Outlook: VFR conditions return on Tuesday. With the exception of some early morning stratus/fog in the unseasonably warm and humid air mass for February, expect generally VFR conditions through late week. && .CLIMATE... RDU Records: Date | High Year | High Min Year ------------------------------------------ 02/20 75 1939 62 1939 02/21 76 2011 55 1939 02/22 75 1897 60 1897 02/23 79 1980 57 1962 02/24 81 1982 58 1985 GSO Records: Date | High Year | High Min Year ------------------------------------------ 02/20 74 1922 56 1939 02/21 74 2011 50 1954 02/22 74 1925 57 1980 02/23 74 2017 52 1922 02/24 79 1982 55 1985 FAY Records: Date | High Year | High Min Year ------------------------------------------- 02/20 82 2014 60 1939 02/21 80 1991 61 1953 02/22 77 2003 56 1989 02/23 80 1922 55 1922 02/24 83 1930 60 1975 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JJM NEAR TERM...Ellis SHORT TERM...Ellis LONG TERM...BSD AVIATION...CBL/Badgett CLIMATE...Badgett

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