Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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324 FXUS62 KRAH 100844 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 341 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016 .SYNOPSIS...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 341 AM WEDNESDAY... STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS THE HEART OF THE COLD UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AT TIMES BETWEEN 5 AND 8K FEET THAT THE SKIES BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT THE COLDER GUIDANCE VALUES AND WE WILL TREND THAT WAY. EXPECT HIGHS MOSTLY 35- 38 NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S SE. WNW WINDS WILL CONTINUE RATHER GUSTY 10-20 MPH. TONIGHT... BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD. LOWS 15-22.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 341 AM WEDNESDAY... THE PARENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY SETTLE OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL AT LEAST ALLOW THE WINDS TO DIE OFF. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS WITH SOME WAA NOTED ALOFT. THIS MAY HELP KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM REALLY BOTTOMING OUT THURSDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY FAIR SKIES THURSDAY... THEN PARTLY CLOUDY THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S. LOWS 17-22.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY... MAJOR NEWS IS OF COURSE THE SERIES OF IMPULSES WHICH WILL DIVE INTO THE TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND REINFORCE THE COLD AIRMASS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THICKNESSES SUPPORT MINIMUM TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE LOW AND MID 20S BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. THE STRONGEST IN THE SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH AN ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE MOISTURE PROFILE IS SKINNY WITH VERY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW IS PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY...THUS IMPACTS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE AND OUR ONGOING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LOOK FINE. STRONG COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL FOLLOW ON SATURDAY BEHIND THIS STRONGER WAVE...SO DESPITE SUNNY SKIES....HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...WITH PERHAPS SOME VERY LOW 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NEARLY OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY MORNING...AND LOOSENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. MINS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE BETWEEN 10 DEGREES NORTH TO 15 OR 16 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTH...WHICH WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ON VALENTINES DAY (SUNDAY) MORNING. THE FRIGID AIRMASS WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...ON SUNDAY. THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WE WILL SEE SOME SLIGHT MODERATION IN WEAK WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE ON MONDAY. WITH THE FRIGID AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...HOWEVER...THIS PRESENTS THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHORT-LIVED COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT LATE MONDAY INTO PERHAPS EARLY TUESDAY WHICH WOULD LIKELY FEATURE SOME P-TYPE TRANSITION CONCERNS ACROSS THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED PIEDMONT. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FEATURES...FOR EXAMPLE THE LATEST ECMWF SHOWS A STRONG COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING WHICH WOULD SCOUR THE COLD AIR QUICKLY...BUT ALSO PROLONG THE EVENT AND INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF RAIN WE MIGHT EXPECT INTO TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT WILL INTRODUCE TUESDAY WITH CHANCE POPS EARLY AND HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 40S. && .AVIATION /06Z THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 1240 AM WEDNESDAY... 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH... PERIODICALLY PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS AND CEILING NEAR 3K FT WITH MVFR VISBYS (MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS). GIVEN THE EXPECTED BRIEF NATURE OF THE PRECIP AND MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO WHEN A VERY LIGHT SHOWER WILL AFFECT A GIVEN LOCATION WILL CONTINUE TO OMIT ANY PRECIP FROM THE TAFS. WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME OVERNIGHT.... THOUGH GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE 10 KT RANGE. WIND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE BY MID TO LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON... WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KTS POSSIBLE. OUTLOOK: THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 KTS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN NC ON FRIDAY... WHERE WE MAY SEE A WINDOW FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...VINCENT NEAR TERM...BADGETT SHORT TERM...BADGETT LONG TERM...MLM AVIATION...BADGETT

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