Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 261505 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1005 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 1000 AM FRIDAY... LATEST SURFACE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING CENTRAL NC. THEREFORE ANOTHER DAY OF CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER IS IN STORE. HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES INCREASE SOME...WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S EXPECTED. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL START TO SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND WITH THE RESULTANT LIGHT RETURN FLOW... OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD NOT BE AS COOL. THEREFORE...MOSTLY LOWER 30S ARE EXPECTED (WITH MAYBE A FEW UPPER 20S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER LOCALES).
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 1230 AM FRIDAY... SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST PROGRESSES TOWARD THE LOWER MIDWEST AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST SHIFTS OFFSHORE. MOISTENING WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN ASSOC/W THE ONSET OF A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND THE ADVECTION OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DOWNSTREAM OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT ATTENDANT A PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH TRACKS INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST DURING THE DAY...WITH INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER DURING THE AFT/EVE. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DECREASES SAT NIGHT...ESP WITH REGARD TO PRECIP CHANCES. STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTENING ALOFT MAY LEAD TO ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION SAT NIGHT...IN THE PRESENCE OF AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVES OR CONVECTIVE VORTICITY MAXIMA TRACKING INTO THE REGION VIA SW FLOW ALOFT. MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS BETWEEN 06-12Z SUN...APPARENTLY AS A RESULT OF DIFFERENCES IN THE EVOLUTION OF DISTURBANCES IN SW FLOW ALOFT AND LOW-LEVEL HEIGHT/WIND FIELDS OVER THE CAROLINAS. WILL MAKE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...SHOWING OVERCAST SKIES AND INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT...HIGHEST IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. LOWS WILL BE WARMER DUE TO CLOUD COVER...IN THE 40S. -VINCENT && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 222 AM FRIDAY... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THE TN VALLEY AT 12Z SUN TO THE NC FOOTHILLS/WESTERN PIEDMONT BY 00Z MON. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH... PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...COUPLED WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE S...APPEARS TO SUPPORT A DECENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EARLY SUNDAY. THEN AFTER A BREAK IN THE RAIN CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE REMAINING PRECIP ASSOC WITH THE FRONT SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO SLIP SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS OUR AREA BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE DAYTIME MONDAY AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT QPF VALUES ARE PROGGED AT LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...RECENT MODELS RUNS HAVE TRENDED DRIER...WITH THE SYNOP PATTERN NOW FEATURING FLOW THAT`S MORE WESTERLY OVER OUR AREA...AND DRIER...THANKS TO THE CONFLUENCE OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS INVOF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN AND MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS. REGARDING TEMPS DURING THIS TIME...FORECAST LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE PROGGED TO DROP NEARLY 90M FROM THEIR PEAK AROUND 1375M JUST BEFORE FROPA SUNDAY EVENING...TO AROUND 1285M BY EARLY THURSDAY...A SOMEWHAT GRADUAL PROCESS AS A 1055MB HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY MONDAY MOVES SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND EASTWARD DURING THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS GRADUALLY LOWER EACH DAY...FROM HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...TO HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 BY MID-WEEK. LOW TEMPS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SUNDAY NIGHT...FALLING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL (LOWER 30S) BY MID-WEEK. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 620 AM FRIDAY... 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD IN ASSOC/W HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND RAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SLOW MOVING FRONT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE REGION. -VINCENT && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...VINCENT NEAR TERM...KRD SHORT TERM...VINCENT LONG TERM...NP AVIATION...VINCENT

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