Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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696 FXUS62 KRAH 170733 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 333 AM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Cool and dry high pressure will build into the Mid-atlantic today. The high pressure system will moderate and persist into the first part of the weekend. A cold front will approach the region late in the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 719 PM Monday... Low-level dry air advection in the wake of the cold front will result in continuation of the west-east clearing trend through the evening with clear skies expected everywhere overnight. Strong CAA overnight will result in much cooler temperatures than we have become accustomed to over the past couple of weeks, with jacket/sweater wearing temperatures down into the lower to mid 40s tonight. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 250 PM Monday... With the cold front exiting to the east high pressure will begin to build over the area with the high centered to the northwest of the forecast area. This will leave very light northeasterly flow over much of the CWA but plenty of insolation as the airmass is dry enough to inhibit any kind of cloud cover. Even so high temperatures are only expected to rise into the mid 60s by Tuesday afternoon. With a very dry airmass in place and mostly calm and clear conditions overnight, Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning is shaping up to be the coldest night of the season so far. Thickness values in the Triad will get down to 1329 m which translates to a low temperature potentially as low as the mid 30s. There is the potential for some patchy frost in the rural areas west of highway 1 but a couple of mitigating factors could be the lack of moisture and also the potential for a very light stir of wind as positioning of the surface and 700 mb high will not be exactly ideal. Will mention in the HWO for now but no plans for a frost advisory at this time. Lows in the mid 30s to low 40s with warmest temps in the southeast. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 330 AM Tuesday... Surface high pressure over the region will continue to dominate the weather late week into the weekend. The surface high is forecast to shift offshore by late Saturday into Sunday. Given this and a mid level ridge building over the area, expect generally clear/sunny skies Thursday and Friday. Mid level ridging will slowly shift to the east of the area during the weekend. This combined with surface high pressure moving offshore will lead to slowly increasing cloud cover during the weekend. The next surface front is expected to approach the area late weekend into Monday, with increasing chances of showers and isolated storms by Monday. High temps will continue a moderating trend late week, with highs expected to be in the mid to upper 70s. High temps will be similar for the weekend into early next week (though highs on Monday will be dependent on precip/timing of the next system), generally in the 70s, with perhaps a few locations making it into the low 80s. Low temps in the 40s to stat the period will moderate into the 50s, to near 60 by the end of the period.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 155 AM Tuesday... High confidence of VFR conditions and fair weather through the 24-hour TAF period as surface high pressure builds into the region. A strong upper-level jet stream will bring periods of thin cirrus clouds across mainly eastern locations today, otherwise skies will clear through Wednesday morning. Winds will remain northerly today at 6 to 10 kts with an occasional gust of 12-15kts, especially across the eastern Piedmont and Coastal Plain this afternoon. Winds will become light tonight. Looking beyond the 24 hour TAF period...Surface high pressure will persist across the area into the weekend. This will result in a period of generally fair weather with VFR conditions. One exception will be the potential for some patchy daybreak stratus across the Coastal Plain on Thursday and Saturday mornings. -Blaes && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BLAES NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...RE LONG TERM...BSD AVIATION...BLAES

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