Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 210517 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 118 AM EDT Wed Jun 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A moist southwest flow will continue across the region through late week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /Overnight/...
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As of 118 AM EDT Wednesday... Areas of rain will continue to move NE across the region through daybreak. The most concentrated area should be from Charlotte to Raleigh per the latest observations. QPF of 0.1 to 0.25 with locally 0.5 can be expected. Areas of low stratus and fog will also become more widespread. Lows 65-69 NW to lower 70s SE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /Wednesday and Wednesday Night/... As of 1200 PM EDT Tuesday... The aforementioned frontal zone is expected to wash out tonight as richer low-level moisture returns to central NC via a S/SW return flow. Central NC will remain at the southern periphery of the westerlies in broad cyclonic flow aloft on Wed, however, flow aloft will veer from the SW/WSW to WNW during the day, advecting a drier mid-level airmass into the region during the afternoon and evening. With the above in mind, expect a potential for ongoing convection Wed morning, however, expect activity to wane from W-E during the afternoon as a drier airmass aloft advects into the region. Expect highs in the lower/mid 80s, lows Wed night in the mid/upper 60s to lower 70s, warmest far S/SE. -Vincent && .LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/... As of 320 PM EDT Tuesday... Deep southerly-southwesterly flow between newly formed T.S. Cindy that`s currently over the Gulf of Mexico and the subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic, will channel a plume of tropical moisture(PWATS ~2.25")northward into the region as early as Thursday night and could linger over the area until a cold frontal passage late Sunday and into Monday. Model spread remains high, specifically WRT to the timing heavy rain chances and qpf amounts across the Carolinas, largely due to the uncertainty in the interaction/phasing of the northern stream shortwave and the remnant circulation center associated with T.S. Cindy. Given the low confidence, will refrain from getting to specific in forecast details. While we do not expect continuous heavy rain through that period, conditions will be favorable for episodic heavy rain through the period, perhaps initially from the initial surge of tropical moisture and embedded upper disturbances (potentially convectively induced) ejecting NEWD across the region, and then followed by a second or quite possibly even third heavy rain event associated with Cindy`s remnant circulation center/energy aloft and then if separate, with the actual cold frontal passage. Early indicators suggest that central NC could see widespread heavy rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches from Thursday night through early next week. Rainfall totals over the past 5 to 7 days are already at 400 to 600 percent of normal across much of the area. Numerous creeks/small streams as well as main stem rivers are running high. Thus, any additional heavy rainfall over the next 5 days will result in prime conditions for both Flash and River flooding. A flood watch may will likely be needed, once better forecast confidence is reached. Highs will be highly dependent on rain chances through the period, ranging from mid 80s to lower 90s. Warm overnight lows in the upper 60s to lower/mid 70s. Cooler drier conditions should follow in the wake of the cold front on Tuesday. && .AVIATION /06Z Wednesday through Sunday/...
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As of 118 AM Wednesday... IFR conditions are expected to become widespread through 12z, then linger through 15z/today. Areas of rain will taper off through daybreak. A return to VFR conditions are expected this afternoon and tonight. Outlook: IFR CIGS and MVFR VSBYS are expected again between 09Z and 13z/Thu. A return to VFR conditions in general Thursday morning, with scattered MVFR conditions in showers/storms at times late Thursday through Saturday morning.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...Badgett SHORT TERM...Vincent LONG TERM...CBL AVIATION...Badgett

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