Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 230023 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 820 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT...THEN LINGER ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 820 PM FRIDAY... ONLY A FEW CIRRUS WERE OBSERVED AROUND SUNSET... OTHERWISE THE SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS NC. SATELLITE DATA SUGGESTS THAT ANY ADDITIONAL CIRRUS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT AND WILL BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE. CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 40S FOR THE RURAL NORTHERN PIEDMONT... NEAR 50 IN THE TRIAD AND TRIANGLE AREAS... AND LOWER 50S SOUTH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 1200 PM FRIDAY... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW (CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CA AT 15Z) WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE ROCKIES SAT/SAT NIGHT. HEIGHT FALLS /DPVA/ ATTENDANT THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION /LATENT HEAT RELEASE/ ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT. THIS...IN TURN...WILL AMPLIFY THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND RESULT IN ADDITIONAL HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC. AS A RESULT...EXPECT SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN ANCHORED IN VICINITY OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND CONTINUED DRY/PLEASANT CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL NC WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 70S FAR NE COASTAL PLAIN TO LOWER 80S SW PIEDMONT. EXPECT LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. -VINCENT && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 225 PM FRIDAY... THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL LARGELY BE WARM AND DRY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN OVER...OR IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO...THE CAROLINAS. THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE PERIOD...PREDOMINANTLY IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPINGES UPON IT FROM THE NW. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES DECREASES WITH TIME AS THE MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE. THE GFS IS A BIT WETTER THAN THE ECMWF AS IT BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE FASTER... ALLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO PROGRESS FASTER AND FARTHER EAST...THUS HAVING A GREATER IMPACT ON CENTRAL NC. GENERALLY... EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S SUNDAY INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S BY THE END OF THE WEEK. LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND... AROUND 60 DEGREES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MID TO UPPER 60S BY LATE WEEK. ALSO...EXPECT BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE WEST... INCREASING LATE IN THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT MUCH OF THE AREA COULD REMAIN DRY INTO FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 725 PM FRIDAY... 24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST... WITH A SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. EXPECT AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CEILINGS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS BY MID/LATE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW COMMENCES. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...VINCENT NEAR TERM...BADGETT SHORT TERM...VINCENT LONG TERM...KC AVIATION...KRD/VINCENT

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