Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 161744 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 144 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move east across the region this morning and reach the coast by late this afternoon. Cool high pressure will build into the region tonight and Tuesday and persist into the first part of the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1035 AM Monday... Surface cold front and accompanying 50 to 75 mile wide band of showers, currently advancing east through the Triangle and central parts of the state will continue to push east through the remainder of the morning and into the early afternoon. The band will result in a 3 to 4 window of mostly light rain/shower activity with rainfall amounts averaging between 0.10-.20", with isolated higher amounts of near 0.50" within the heavier/more convective elements. Expect occasional post-frontal wind gusts from the north at 10 to 15 MPH with gusts up to 20 to 25 MPH behind the front. Areas along and east of the Triangle have already realized their daytime highs with temperatures falling or holding in the 60s behind the front. In the Triad, post-frontal clearing later this afternoon will allow temperatures to rebound a bit, warming back up into the low to mid 60s. Cold advection will force temperatures down well into the 40s tonight. A stirring north to northeast wind tonight will keep temperatures from bottoming out. Lows will range from 40 in some of the colder spots across the interior Piedmont to the mid 40s southeast. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 AM Monday... The upper-level trough axis pushes east of central NC Tuesday morning with increasing heights on Tuesday night. Cool high pressure builds into region on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Mainly clear skies are expected with perhaps some cirrus clouds, mainly in east Tuesday morning. High temperatures will range in 63 to 69 range, generally about 5 degrees below normal. Lows Tuesday night will be chilly as good radiational cooling conditions and a chilly air mass will result in lows in the upper 30s to around 40 although some of the cooler locations across the Piedmont could have lows in the mid 30s and perhaps some patchy frost. Latest NAM MET guidance provides lows of 39/37/34/33 at Greensboro/Raleigh/Burlington/Roxboro respectively while the GFS MAV and EC MOS are several degrees milder. May include a mention of isolated frost across the Piedmont in the HWO for Wednesday morning. -Blaes && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300 AM Monday... The long term forecast is on track. Dry high pressure will remain entrenched across the region throughout the long term forecast period. Seasonably cool temperatures with lows mainly in the 40s and highs near 70 will gradually warm through the week with lows reaching the 50s and highs in the upper 70s on Sunday. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 144 PM Monday... Surface cold front and accompanying band of rain showers and associated MVFR ceilings will exit eastern terminals(KRWI and KFAY) between 19 to 20z. As we`ve seen at KINT, KGSO, and KRDU, post- frontal low-level dry air advection will quickly (1 to 2 hours immediately behind the front) scour out any lingering sub-VFR ceilings, with VFR conditions expected through the remainder of the period. Expect occasional northerly wind gusts into the teens/lower 20s through the afternoon, with winds diminishing this evening at 5 to 8 kts. Looking beyond the 24 hour TAF period...Surface high pressure will build into the region tonight and Tuesday and will persist across the area into the weekend, resulting in a prolonged period of dry VFR conditions.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BLAES NEAR TERM...CBL/BLAES SHORT TERM...BLAES LONG TERM...NRR AVIATION...CBL

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