Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 180624 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 222 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL EXTEND SOUTH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TODAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...DRIFT ACROSS THE BIG BEND OF FL TONIGHT...THEN MEANDER ALONG THE SOUTHEAST US COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1015 PM THURSDAY... ...WILL CANCEL FROST ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT... MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWS A DENSE MASS OF HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SW IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ROBUST CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE MEANTIME...DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN STEADILY RISING WITHIN THE NELY MARITIME FETCH COMING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST...ON TRACK TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT. ITS PRETTY HARD TO IGNORE THESE OVERWHELMING SATELLITE/ OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS WITH THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND INCREASE IN BL DEWPOINTS SUGGESTING WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED AND A DECREASED THREAT OF FROST. WILL WARM UP LOWS TONIGHT...RANGING FROM UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S NORTHERN PIEDMONT TO MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH. WILL CANCEL FROST ADVISORY. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 1250 PM THURSDAY... FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND COOL FRIDAY WITH HIGHS 60-65... THEN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MODELS ARE NOW COMING IN LINE TO DELIVER ANOTHER CHILLY RAINY SYSTEM TO OUR REGION BEGINNING LATER FRIDAY INTO A PART OF SATURDAY... AS THE CUT OFF LOW IS FORECAST TO COME CLOSER TO THE REGION... WITH A SURFACE WAVE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND TRACK NEAR THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WE WILL LIKELY HAVE A DAY IN THE 40S/50S AGAIN WITH RAIN SATURDAY WITH THE NE FLOW... CLOUDS AND RAIN. SATURDAY NIGHT... LINGERING CLOUDINESS AND RAIN CHANCES... BUT THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 1250 PM THURSDAY... THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO FINALLY DRIFT WELL OFF THE SE US COAST SUNDAY. CLOUDINESS AND THE CHANCE OF SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN MAY PERSIST INTO SUNDAY MORNING... ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. OTHERWISE... THE NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE REAR OF THE DEPARTING MID/UPPER LOW WITH COOL TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY EXPECTED TO MODIFY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. HIGHS MONDAY WILL MODERATE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. LOWS WILL ALSO MODERATE INTO THE 50S BY MONDAY. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... A CONTINUED WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. HIGHS WILL REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 TUESDAY. HOWEVER... A WEAK "BACKDOOR" COLD FRONT MAY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. IT APPEARS THAT MOISTURE WILL BE GREATLY LIMITED AS THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WILL BE CUT OFF. HIGHS MAY BACK OFF A FEW DEGREES IF THE BOUNDARY DOES INDEED SLIP SOUTHWARD AS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY... READINGS WILL WARM AGAIN BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S AS THE FRONT RETURNS BACK NORTH AND THE MID/UPPER RIDGING REMAINS OVER OUR REGION THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 210 AM FRIDAY... POLAR HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL EXTEND SOUTH AND MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH TWO EXCEPTIONS. THE FIRST WILL BE THE AREA IFR STRATUS CEILINGS OVER NE NC THIS MORNING...WHICH IS FORECAST TO ADVECT/DEVELOP WESTWARD INTO THE KRWI AND KRDU VICINITIES...WITH A LOWER PROBABILITY SOUTH AT KFAY AND WEST AT TRIAD TERMINALS...IN THE 09-13Z TIME FRAME. AN ADDITIONAL PLUME OF MOISTURE AT THE BASE OF A LINGERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 4000 FT...WILL MOVE INLAND FROM SE NC AND RESULT IN SCT TO BKN (VFR) STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD BASES AT KFAY THIS MORNING. THE SECOND POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT THE VERY END OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD...AND MORE LIKELY JUST BEYOND...AS CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER AND RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN - AND EVENTUALLY MVFR-IFR CEILINGS - TO THE NORTH OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM THE NE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTHEAST US COAST. OTHERWISE...5-10 KT ENE SURFACE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BACK TO A MORE NE COMPONENT TODAY. OUTLOOK: MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...AND CONSEQUENTLY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NC DURING THAT TIME. HOWEVER...CEILINGS WILL BE PROGRESSIVELY HIGHER FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST...SUCH THAT IFR- MVFR ONES WILL BE LIKELY AT SOUTHEASTERN TERMINALS...TRENDING HIGHER TO THE WEST AT KRDU AND TRIAD TERMINALS...THE LATTER OF WHICH MAY REMAIN VFR DESPITE PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...BADGETT/BSD LONG TERM...BADGETT AVIATION...MWS

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