Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KRAH 281851 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 250 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN STALLED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO THE REGION AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL QUICKLY RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 250 PM THURSDAY... CURRENTLY CENTRAL NC IS CURRENTLY IN A CONVECTIVE LULL...OWING TO PRONOUNCED DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS THAT CROSSED AREA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZATION OF 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE...ALONG THE QUASI- STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHERN VA/NORTHEAST NC SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT TO INITIATE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH ADDITIONAL DOWNSTREAM STORM DEVELOPMENT AS A RESULT OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LIKELY TO GOOD CHANCE RANGES...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTH NEAR THE FRONT. STRENGTHENING WESTERLY H5 FLOW WILL IMPROVE SHEAR VALUES TO 35 TO 40KTS...FAVORABLE FOR MULTICELLS WITH ONE OR TWO SEVERE CLUSTERS POSSIBLE. MAIN THREAT WILL DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST-EAST TONIGHT AS THE STORMS PUSH EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM NEAR 60 NORTH TO MID 60S SE. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT /... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY... DOMINATED BY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND RISING HEIGHTS/WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING RE-EXERTS ITSELF BACK OVER THE AREA...A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS WILL PRECLUDE ANY RAIN/CONVECTIVE CHANCES ON FRIDAY AS THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...RANGING FROM UPPER 70S NE TO MID 80S SOUTH. THE FRONT IS FINALLY FORECAST TO SLIP SLOWLY SOUTH FRIDAY EVENING... BUT NOT TOO FAR SOUTH...THIS TIME PROGGED TO BRIEFLY STALL ALONG THE NC/SC STATE LINE ON SATURDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH TO UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 310 AM THURSDAY... SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NOW LOOK TO BE WET WITH PERIODS OF RAIN... BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING ON SUNDAY. MODELS OFTEN SCOUR OUT CAD TOO QUICKLY... EVEN IN THE SPRING (WARM SEASON). THIS LOOKS TO BE A GREAT CASE OF THAT OVER OUR PIEDMONT DAMMING REGION SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF WAA RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS OUR REGION WITH AN AMPLE SUPPLY OF WESTERN ATLANTIC THEN GULF MOISTURE THAT WILL LIFT UP AND OVER THE DEVELOPING FRONT/THEN COOL STABLE DOME SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AND USING THE ENSEMBLE APPROACH ALONG WITH PATTERN RECOGNITION... THE MAIN PARENT LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT TO ARRIVE IN OUR REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. OUT AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM SUNDAY... A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT BACK INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS SUNDAY. HOWEVER... IN-SITU/HYBRID CAD WILL LEAD TO INCREASING STABILITY AND THE DIABATIC PROCESS SHOULD THE RAIN BECOME WIDESPREAD AS CURRENTLY EXPECTED WILL LEAD TO MUCH COOLER HIGHS IN THE 60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE BETWEEN 0.25 TO 0.75 FOR THE QPF. THERE MAY BE A RATHER LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AND RAINFALL GRADIENT FROM SE TO NW FROM CLINTON TO WINSTON-SALEM BY LATE SUNDAY IF THE WARM FRONT CAN SURGE INTO THE SE ZONES (PER SOME OF THE MODELS INCLUDING THE LATEST EC). SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY SHOULD REMAIN RATHER UNSETTLED WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SLOW TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. THEN WHEN THE FRONT DOES MOVE THROUGH... IT MOSTLY LIKELY WILL STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES INTO TUESDAY. FOR THOSE THAT NEED RAINFALL AND COOLER TEMPERATURES... THIS LOOKS TO BE A GREAT SHOT AT BOTH. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 1PM THURSDAY... 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT DESTABILIZATION IN THE WARM SECTOR JUST SOUTH OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS NORTHEAST NC WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW OF THE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/LOCATION IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE...EXPECT THAT NORTHERN TERMINALS ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY THE STRONGEST STORMS. AS THE STORMS MOVE EAST OF THE AREA...AREAS OF STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING(06 TO 12Z)...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL. ANY LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY MID MORNING WITH DRY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH THE STALLED FRONT FINALLY FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. LOOKING AHEAD: THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL QUICKLY RETURN AS A WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY...BRINGING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CEILINGS ON SATURDAY. WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF A SLOWING MOVING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WITH RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CBL NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...BADGETT AVIATION...CBL

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.